Market News

US Stocks Rally on Tech Optimism – Nasdaq up 1.3%
US equity markets moved higher overnight as investors returned to buying technology stocks despite the continued escalation of tensions in the Middle East. The Nasdaq led the gains, rising 1.29% to close at 25,837, while the S&P 500 added 0.89% to finish at 7,509. The Dow Jones also enjoyed a solid session, climbing 0.74% to end the day at 52,224.

The move higher in equities came despite renewed pressure in bond markets, with Treasury yields pushing higher on lingering inflation concerns. The US 2-year Treasury yield rose 5.5 basis points to 4.262%, while the benchmark 10-year yield increased 3.6 basis points to 4.628%, to hit a 2-month high. The stronger yield environment also helped…

IC – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 22 July 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

The overnight U.S. session was characterized more by headline-driven trading than economic data. With no significant U.S. macro releases, investors focused on tariff developments, geopolitical risks in the Middle East, and their implications for inflation. The biggest market reactions were seen in crude oil, Treasury yields, and the U.S. dollar, while gold was supported by safe-haven demand but constrained by rising yields, and equity markets traded cautiously ahead of upcoming catalysts.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Asian traders begin Wednesday with a relatively light economic calendar, but the UK CPI report is the standout event and is expected…

The Iranian military targeted US assets stationed at Jordan's Al Azraq base as well as facilities used by American personnel at Bahrain's Sheikh Isa Air Base, according to Iranian state media. The attacks are likely a retaliation for recent US military operations against targets in southern Iran, where US Central Command said it struck Iranian command centers, missile and drone launch sites, air defense systems and maritime capabilities.

There has been no immediate confirmation from US officials regarding damage or casualties at either facility. Over recent days, Iran has also reported attacks targeting US military positions in Kuwait, while Jordan has previously said it intercepted multiple Iranian drones approaching its territory. …

• UK June CPI +2.6% vs +2.7% y/y expected
• Prior +2.8%
• UK June core CPI +2.6% vs +2.5% y/y expected
• Prior +2.6%

As expected, UK headline annual inflation eased in June but the real surprise in this report is that core annual inflation came in higher than estimated. That contrasts with analyst expectations, with some potential downside risks flagged prior the report release even.

In terms of monthly estimates, headline inflation was up only 0.1% on the month but core inflation was seen up 0.3% (vs estimated 0.2%).

Looking at the breakdown, food price inflation was slightly softer on the month (-0.2%) alongside transport (-0.3%). However, that is more than offset by travel-related spending with prices for restaurants and hotels up 1.0% and…

There are just a couple of expiries to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below.

The big one is for EUR/USD at the 1.1400 level. With the dollar pushing higher overnight on the back of higher yields, that is now centering price action near the expiries and the figure level. As such, the expiries above are likely to act as a pull/magnet for price action before rolling off later in the day.

That unless we see headline risks stir things up and/or if the dollar decides to run again amid broader market developments. But for now, Treasuries remain calmer and we're not seeing too much influence from the risk side of things.

And with little on the economic calendar, it means that the larger expiries for EUR/USD will have the potential…

Gold price analysis today: Bulls defend 4,130, but 4,147 is the breakout test

Gold futures remain moderately bullish after a powerful rebound from approximately 4,085 to 4,146. Buyers have shifted market activity decisively higher, but price is now consolidating near 4,133 and testing important four-hour resistance. The next directional signal may come from acceptance above 4,147 or a breakdown below 4,128.

Key takeaways for gold traders and investors

• Gold futures prediction score:+4, indicating a moderate bullish advantage.
• Bullish tradeCompass threshold: Above 4,147.
• Bearish tradeCompass threshold: Below 4,128.
• Immediate support cluster:4,109-4,119.
• Broader pullback-support zone:4,095-4,108.
• Practical read: The structure favors buyers, but…



As if rising energy prices weren’t already causing enough headaches amid another closure of the Strait of Hormuz, trade wars have also returned to the forefront.

On Monday, the U.S. president imposed additional 50% tariffs on imports of a wide range of products from Canada, “in response to the continued discrimination against U.S. products.” Now, given that the U.S. has not yet reached trade agreements with all countries, we may see more news like this in the future.

Should we expect higher inflation?

The July figures are already likely to be disappointing, given that diesel prices in the U.S. have once again surpassed $5 per gallon amid renewed tensions in the Middle East.

The logic is simple: when diesel prices rise, the cost of…

There are many moving stories in markets this week but this is arguably the only one worth mentioning among major currencies. The dollar is starting to regain its strength on the week, backed by higher Treasury yields. 10-year yields in the US have nudged up to 4.63% with 2-year yields even climbing back up to 4.26% overnight.

The narrative there continues to be driven by renewed tensions in the Middle East, weighing on the inflation outlook and in turn sparking a more hawkish Fed outlook - again. As oil prices continue to ramp up again, it just feeds into the whole setting above.

And in that lieu, we're seeing a one-two punch again for USD/JPY to the upside. On the one hand, the dollar is finding better footing from the above narrative. On…

There's only one main item on the agenda in European trading today, and that is the UK CPI report for June. The key data is slated to be released at 0600 GMT.

In terms of what to expect, here is the breakdown of the median estimates among analysts (via Reuters):

• CPI +0.1% m/m (Prior +0.2%)
• CPI +2.7% y/y (Prior +2.8%)
• Core CPI +0.2% m/m (Prior +0.3%)
• Core CPI +2.5% y/y (Prior +2.6%)

As always, the ones to watch are the annual estimates and they are expected to show some marginal easing compared to May. The drop is mostly going to be tied to lower petrol and diesel prices at the pump, which will affect headline annual inflation.

Looking to core annual inflation, the balance of risks are skewed to the downside this time around. Barclays points to…

• Japan's oil-driven import surge widens trade gap, complicates BOJ hold
• Gold hits 2-week high as Iran diplomacy kindling fires ahead of Fed 'hold' meeting
• Trump approves 30-year US-Saudi nuclear deal with enrichment option
• Gold jumps back above $4,100, bouncy!
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.7933 (vs. estimate at 6.7737)
• Japan finmin flags Iran crisis as yen hits 40-year low, ambush risk builds
• CENTCOM says Hormuz stays open on 11th night of Iran strikes
• White House to shift federal research funds to AI, away from colleges
• Japan trade data shows exports in June higher than expected
• Trump sets 2-year tariff exemption for generic drugs, then steep rises
• US attacks on Iran continue for the 11 straight night
• UBS lifts S&P 500 target to 8,100,…

The fact that gold and oil are climbing together, rather than moving inversely, suggests both markets are still pricing genuine geopolitical risk rather than one simply offsetting the other on any given day. A likely steady Fed rate path through 2026 removes a headwind that had been weighing on gold for much of the conflict, when rising yields and dollar strength appeared to dominate whatever safe-haven bid the war generated. Layered on top of that, persistent central bank buying, led by China, continues to act as a structural floor under gold independent of the day's headlines. Momeni's outreach to Islamabad is a small signal rather than a breakthrough, but even a modest diplomatic opening, combined with a steadier rate outlook and…