Market News

Japan dominates Asia session with Tokyo CPI and BoJ decision ahead

Japan takes centre stage in Asia on Friday, with a heavy run of domestic data landing ahead of the Bank of Japan’s policy decision. The central bank is widely expected to keep its policy rate at 1.25%. A move in December remains a live possibility, so markets will focus on the tone of the policy statement and the quarterly Outlook Report rather than the decision itself.

Tokyo consumer prices for October arrive first, at 23:30 GMT (preview coming). Core inflation, which excludes fresh food, is expected at 2.6%, a touch below September’s 2.7% and still above the BoJ’s 2% target. Headline Tokyo CPI ran at 2.7% in September, while the measure excluding both food and energy stood…

The major U.S. stock indices closed mostly lower Thursday, with the Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 both falling 1.38%. Alphabet was the standout loser among the megacap technology names, tumbling 12.64%, while Amazon declined 4.25% ahead of its earnings release.

However, the selling was far from universal. The Russell 2000 gained 1.01%, the NYSE Composite edged higher, and advancing stocks comfortably outnumbered decliners within the S&P 500. The headline indices told a weaker story than the average stock.

After the close, attention shifted to another round of earnings. The initial reactions supplied showed Intel down 20.17% and Amazon down 6.30%, keeping technology shares in focus heading into the next session.

U.S. closing levels

• Dow…

The yen is the most direct channel for a surprise. A firmer-than-expected reading would likely lift yen strength and push Japanese government bond yields higher as traders add to December hike bets. A softer print would tend to weigh on the yen and could support Japanese equities, particularly exporters. With the BoJ decision following within hours, any move on the data may be short-lived, or amplified, depending on the central bank’s tone.

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Tokyo inflation is expected to ease only slightly, leaving it comfortably above target and keeping a December BoJ hike firmly in the conversation.

Summary:

• Tokyo CPI for October is due at 23:30 GMT (8:30 am Tokyo, 10:30 am Sydney)
• Core CPI, which excludes fresh food, is expected at 2.6% y/y, against 2.7%…

The yen and short-end Japanese government bond yields are where the reaction will show. A clear 2% declaration, a firm Ueda and a hawkish dissent would likely support the yen, push two-year yields higher and add to December pricing. Dovish dissents calling for a cut could outweigh hawkish language and trigger renewed yen selling, a risk sharpened by the yen’s heavy losses earlier this year. Oil remains a key swing factor: further gains in crude, tied to the conflict in the Middle East, strengthen the case for faster tightening because energy feeds directly into Japan’s import costs and inflation outlook. USD/JPY is also still digesting this week’s Federal Reserve meeting.

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Earlier:

• BOJ preview: Daiwa sees hold, but 2% inflation call…

As the major indices trade modestly to sharply lower with the Nasdaq Composite (-1.59%) and the Nasdaq 100 (-1.66%) leading the downward spiral, some other big names will report after the close including Amazon and Intel. 

The central question for technology investors: Is the growth coming from AI strong enough to justify the spending—and support future profits and cash flow?

Consensus estimates vary slightly by provider. The comparisons below use current MarketBeat estimates against the same quarter a year ago; EPS generally reflects the adjusted measure used by analysts, except Amazon’s reported earnings.

Amazon: AWS growth and the cost of delivering it

• EPS expected: $1.97 versus $1.95 a year ago—up approximately 1%.
• Revenue expected:…

Trump has said this at least 100 times since the war started in late February. He is an improviser, not a planner. Since it all went sideways, he has been looking for an elegant exit but can't find one. The blockade may be giving him some leverage but the pain of higher oil prices is making it an extremely unpopular war.

Meanwhile, the UKMTO reports that a tanker has been struck by an unknown projectile whilst completing an outbound transit of the Strait of Hormuz. There are no reported injuries to the crew or environmental impact report at this time.

The status quo can't continue indefinitely so it will either be escalation or negotiation. It looks like the US will now wait until after the midterms to attack, though some are speculating…

The USDCHF is trading near session lows after breaking below its 100-hour moving average at 0.82758. That break gave sellers the technical go-ahead to push lower, with the decline extending to 0.8257, right at the 200-hour moving average. The price has since edged back to around 0.8262, leaving traders with a clearly defined battle between buyers and sellers.

The distinction between those two moving averages is important. The break below the 100-hour moving average shifted the near-term bias toward the sellers. However, reaching the 200-hour moving average introduces another decision point. Sellers have reached a downside target. To strengthen their control, they now need to break below that target and stay below it.

For buyers, the same…

Iran this week has repeated its 'seven conditions' several times and most of it was part of the agreement with the US from June 17.

Here is a recap:

1. End military operations on all fronts. A permanent halt to attacks against Iran and allied groups, including in Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq and the Palestinian territories.

2. Release frozen Iranian assets. Unfreeze Iranian money held overseas, with approximately $12 billion identified in subsequent negotiations.

3. Lift the US naval blockade. End restrictions on Iranian ports, tankers and commercial shipping.

4. Remove economic and political sanctions. Restore Iran's ability to export oil and conduct international financial transactions.

5. Withdraw US naval and air forces from the region. End the…

• High yield: 4.894%
• WI level at the time of the auction: 4.894%
• Tail: 0.0 basis points vs the average of 0.2 basis points
• Bid to cover: 2.46X vs the average of 2.49X
• Directs: 32.82% vs the average of 24.2%
• Indirects: 57.77% vs the average of 63.7%
• Dealers: 9.41% vs the average of 12.1%

Auction grade: B−

A slightly above-average auction overall. The high yield matched the WI level, avoiding the modest tail typically seen. Bid to cover was marginally below average, while the bidder breakdown showed stronger direct participation offsetting softer indirect demand. Directs took 8.62 percentage points more than average, while indirects took 5.93 percentage points less. Dealers were left with 9.41%, below the 12.1% average—a constructive sign for…

Boeing stock rebounds after a 10.7% earnings plunge. Is the next dip worth buying?

Boeing shares are recovering from a sharp selloff, but the next pullback could tell investors more than the rebound itself. Here's why the $169-$171 area matters, what could support a longer-term recovery and how a hypothetical position might manage the risk.

Boeing (NYSE: BA) is showing signs of recovery after a painful post-earnings selloff. But is this the beginning of a longer-term buying opportunity or just a temporary rebound? I'm particularly interested in whether buyers can defend the $169-$171 area on the next pullback, rather than simply chasing the stock higher.

As of approximately 11:50 a.m. New York time on October 29, Boeing shares were trading…

WTI crude oil had traded above its 200-hour moving average since breaking higher on October 12. Today, that support finally cracked. The price fell below the rising 200-hour moving average at $100.08 and the psychologically important $100 level, reaching a session low of $99.79.

Those breaks gave sellers two reasons to push lower. However, the follow-through was limited. The decline stalled ahead of Tuesday’s low at $99.45, and the price rebounded back above both $100 and the 200-hour moving average.

Crude is now trading near $101.05, leaving it between the 200-hour moving average at $100.08 and the 100-hour moving average at $101.48. Those two levels frame the next battle between buyers and sellers.

The failed break below support…

The ECB kept interest rates unchanged as expected, but President Christine Lagarde delivered a hawkish message despite the decision to hold. Policymakers discussed a rate increase, and Lagarde indicated that conditions could have justified additional tightening. The decision to wait reflected unchanged underlying inflation and uncertainty surrounding the outlook, rather than a declaration that the tightening cycle was over.

For EURUSD, the decision and press conference produced volatile trading. An initial decline took the price below the double bottom near 1.11135, established on October 14 and revisited yesterday. However, sellers could not sustain the break. After reaching 1.1106, the pair reversed higher and rebounded toward…