Market News

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 3.10%, Shanghai Composite up 0.57% Hang Seng up 0.86% ASX up 0.45%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,595.45 (0.13%) Silver at $78.065 (2.45%), Brent Oil at $97.78 (-2.43%), WTI Oil at $91.00 (-5.77%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.488, UK 10-year yield at 4.9060, Germany 10-year yield at 3.0338

• (CAD) Core Retail Sales m/m  209K  to 210K   expected

Asia-Pacific markets rallied Monday as easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East boosted investor confidence and pushed oil prices sharply lower. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged past the 65,000 mark for the first time ever, setting a fresh record during thin holiday trading across the region.

Investor…

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 25 May 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

Asia’s session was dominated by a risk-on rotation that lifted Japanese equities, especially SoftBank and the Nikkei, while South Korean tech names were mixed and FX traders focused on a softer dollar, a strong yen-watch around USD/JPY, and a weaker won; commodities reflected the same tone, with gold under pressure and oil staying supported, while China’s industrial-production release was the main macro event still looming over the session.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Traders should expect a quieter U.S. session because of Memorial Day, but Europe is open and will likely trade on positioning, headlines, and pre-week…

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 25 May 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

Markets were shaped by stickier‑than‑hoped core inflation and Fed rhetoric that ruled out imminent rate cuts, while a fragile Iran‑ceasefire backdrop kept risk‑on flows in equities but also supported a modest risk‑premium in oil and Treasuries. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq pushed higher on tech‑led strength, whereas U.S. bond yields edged up and the dollar held firm, and energy‑complex moves were contained within a range dominated more by macro and policy cues than by fresh geopolitical escalation.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Traders heading into Monday should focus on holiday-thinned liquidity, Hong Kong’s market closure, and the…

• To implement support to curb household utility, gas bills from July to September
• Will allocate ¥500 billion from reserves for related subsidies
• Will compile extra budget of more than ¥3 trillion
• To create new budget reserves to address impact of higher energy costs caused by Middle East conflict
• Will issue new deficit financing bonds to finance extra budget
• This will have no impact on the bond market as new debt will be offset by higher tax revenue and other matters
• Will make utmost efforts to avoid market disruptions

This was already widely expected and heavily rumoured last week already here. As mentioned then, it's not so much about the extra budget itself but the fact that it would require another fresh round of funding. While yes, it will…

US Stocks Rally into Weekend – Dow up 0.6%
US equity markets finished higher again on Friday as investors continued to price in the possibility of easing tensions in the Middle East, although conflicting rhetoric around a potential peace agreement kept overall sentiment cautious. Reports late last week suggested a deal between the US and Iran was close; however, comments over the weekend indicating there is “no rush” to finalise an agreement tempered some of the optimism heading into the new week.

Despite the uncertainty, risk appetite remained relatively well supported. The Dow Jones led the gains, rising 0.58% to close at 50,579, while the S&P 500 added 0.37% to finish at 7,473. The Nasdaq also edged higher, climbing 0.19% to close at…

• We have reached conclusions on many topics discussed
• But that does not mean we're close to signing an agreement
• We have reached a framework but nobody can stay that an agreement between US and Iran is imminent
• Potential memorandum of understanding has no specific details about management of Strait of Hormuz
• The management of the strait belongs to the coastal countries
• End of war on all fronts including Lebanon will be part of potential agreement
• We will not take tolls on the Strait of Hormuz
• But it is normal that services will be provided would require a price but should not be presented as tolls

It seems that all the signs are pointing towards a framework agreement being announced, perhaps in the coming days. That will include some preconditions…

• Q1 GDP +0.3% vs +0.3% q/q prelim
• Prior +0.3%

The estimate here is very much old news as the focus turns to how the German economy is going to navigate the second and third quarters instead. That amid rising cost pressures and stagflation risks mounting in general. The PMI data for May here yesterday already points to overall business activity contracting in Q2 2026.

And the negative impact of that will be made worse once businesses have to pass on higher input costs to consumers, causing inflation pressures to become more widespread. It's going to be a tough one, especially with the situation in the Middle East showing no signs of materially improving any time soon.

At the same time, the fiscal situation for Germany is also a cause for…

• Business confidence 94 vs 94 expected
• Prior 94
• Services confidence 93
• Prior 94
• Industrial confidence 102
• Prior 100

The French business climate remains gloomy, with yet another drop in services confidence as dark clouds continue to circle amid the Middle East crisis. The unrevised estimate reflects a drop to 93.6, marking the lowest such reading since February 2021. That as we also continue to see overall business confidence continue to keep below the long-term average of 100.

Besides that, there was also a marked drop in the climate for the retail trade sector. The estimate there fell to 89 in May, down from the 94 reading in April. If you exclude the pandemic, that is the weakest such reading since June 2013. And that continues to mark a sharp…

Adam Button Brings 4 Practical Trading Sessions to the Finance Magnates Africa Summit

Most traders spend years trying to improve entries, indicators, and strategies. Fewer spend time asking harder questions:

Why am I taking this trade?What actually moves markets?How do experienced traders deal with losses, mistakes, and uncertainty?What keeps conviction alive when markets move against you?

At the Finance Magnates Africa Summit 2026, Adam Button, Chief Market Analyst at investingLive, will lead four sessions at the Traders Arena focused on trading psychology, market behaviour, conviction, and lessons built from more than 20 years in markets.

These are not theoretical discussions. They are based on experience, mistakes, market shocks, and years…

One of the preconditions for a deal or framework agreement, however you want to put it, is that the US wants Iran to loosen restrictions over traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Despite US president Trump's claims that the US is in control of the strait, we all know that the truth of the situation is that Iran still holds the cards here.

As such, Washington wants Tehran to give up some semblance of control in order to progress to the next stage of agreeing on nuclear terms. So far, that has been the play by play over the past few weeks.

But since last week, there has been a bit of a change in the rhetoric by Iran. The navy is claiming that they are allowing more ships and vessels to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

Last Monday, they…