Market News

• US major indices closed sharply lower with the Dow and Russell 2000 falling -1.6%
• Qatar says Ras Laffan Industrial City has sustained "extensive damage"
• The USD is moving higher as the Fed chair testimony continues
• Fed's Powell: Consumer spending has been resilient and business investment has expanded
• Oil gains fade as Iran's gas company says situation in Pars expected to return to normal
• FOMC March 2026 dot plot and central tendencies of economic forecasts.
• The full statement from the March 2026 FOMC rate decision
• FOMC rate decision: No change
• What's priced in for the Federal Reserve ahead of the FOMC decision
• Geopolitical headlines continue to roll in
• Bank of Canada press conference: It's too early to assess Iran war effect on domestic GDP
• EIA…

• Qatari Interior Ministry: The security threat level is high, and everyone must adhere to staying in homes and safe places
• Foreign ministry: Iran targeting it is "irresponsible approach"
• Ras Laffan attack is "direct threat" to its national security

There are videos now showing two strikes on Ras Laffan. There are two fires but keep in mind that Ras Laffan is truly a mind-bogglingly large complex. It covers 256 sq kilometers with the port facilities alone covering 56 sq km. The stated target was the Exxon-owned (partly at 10%) refinery in the complex but even it is a very large facility.

It's a condensate refinery processing 300,000-400,000 barrels per day (the combined LR1 and LR2 capacity) and would typically occupy somewhere in the range of…

This is from Tulsi Gabbard, Director of National Intelligence at hearings today:

"The IC assesses the regime in Iran appears to be intact, but largely degraded due to attacks on its leadership and military capabilities. Its conventional military power projection capabilities have largely been destroyed, leaving limited options... Even if the regime remains intact, the IC assesses that internal tensions are likely to increase as economic as Iran's economy worsens. Even so, Iran and its proxies continue to attack U.S. and allied interests in the Middle East. The IC assesses that if a hostile regime survives, it will likely seek to begin a years long effort to rebuild its military missiles and UAV forces."

Separately, Axios is out with a report:

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This is from Tulsi Gabbard, Director of National Intelligence at hearings today:

"The IC assesses the regime in Iran appears to be intact, but largely degraded due to attacks on its leadership and military capabilities. Its conventional military power projection capabilities have largely been destroyed, leaving limited options... Even if the regime remains intact, the IC assesses that internal tensions are likely to increase as economic as Iran's economy worsens. Even so, Iran and its proxies continue to attack U.S. and allied interests in the Middle East. The IC assesses that if a hostile regime survives, it will likely seek to begin a years long effort to rebuild its military missiles and UAV forces."

Separately, Axios is out with a report:

• <p…

• Prior was -0.7%
• January non-defense capital goods orders ex air +0.1% vs 0.0% prelim

The Census Bureau's Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3) survey tracks the dollar value of new orders, shipments, unfilled orders, and inventories across the U.S. manufacturing sector. The full factory orders report covers both durable and nondurable goods and is typically released about a week after the advance durable goods report, which serves as an early read on the more volatile durable goods component.

In December 2025, total factory orders fell 0.7% to a seasonally adjusted $617.5 billion, pulling back from a six-month high of $621.9 billion in November, when orders had surged 2.7 percent. Durable goods orders declined 1.4 percent,…

Qatar is a natural gas superpower and it's sounding the alarm after today's attack on Iran's gas field.

Last week, the US appear to rebuke Israel after attacks on Tehran's oil storage facilities but now the US and Israel are striking natural gas facilities and Iran is preparing to respond.

The problem here is that if these facilities in Qatar are destroyed, they will take years to rebuild and there is no replacement in the system. If energy infrastructure in the region is destroyed, there is no hope of a return to low oil prices at any point in the next two years, barring a massive amount of demand destruction.

What I fear is that Trump is going to allow that kind of escalation to punish Europe and other allies for not joining in the fight…

Israel launched an attack that struck the South Pars petrochemical facilities in Asaluyeh in southern Iran. A report from Axios said it was coordinated and approved by the US.

In response, Iran said it will warn Gulf allies that a response is coming. A Fars report said "Iran will hit enemy sites that were previously thought as safe". Al Jazeera said Israel is now targeting civilian infrastructure in a "major escalation".

Brent crude is up 4% in the aftermath of the attack with prices hitting $108.10.

In turn, S&P 500 futures are down 35 points and the US dollar strengthening.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Producer prices came in hotter than expected, reinforcing the recent shift toward a more inflation-conscious narrative. Headline PPI rose 0.7% MoM versus 0.3% expected, while the year-over-year rate accelerated to 3.4% (vs 2.9% expected). Core measures told a similar story, with PPI ex-food and energy up 0.5% MoM (vs 0.3% expected) and the annual rate at 3.9%, well above expectations. Even the narrower ex-food, energy, and trade measure showed firmness, pointing to underlying price pressures that are not easing as quickly as hoped.

The stronger-than-expected inflation data has helped lift the USD, with Treasury yields ticking higher as markets reassess the timing and pace of potential Fed rate cuts. Equities, meanwhile, have edged lower,…

Trump has been unleashing something of a tweetstorm today. He started with this:

About an hour later, he reposted this with the correct spelling of "strait".

This has been an idea that's been floated for awhile and it's completely plausible that the US does it. However there could be long-ranging consequences, particularly if Iran can continue to destabilize the region via attacks.

Also regarding Iran, he wrote:

Remember, for all of those absolute “fools” out there, Iran is considered, by everyone, to be the NUMBER ONE STATE SPONSOR OF TERROR. We are rapidly putting them out of business!

Trump also posted:

For all of the Fake News out there, it’s called THE SAVE AMERICA ACT, not the SAVE ACT. Nobody knows what the Save Act means!!!

He also…

• Prior was 2.9%
• PPI final demand +0.7% vs +0.3% expected (prior was +0.5%)
• PPI ex-food and energy +3.9% y/y vs +3.7% expected
• Ex-food and energy +0.5% vs +0.3% expected

• PPI Ex Food/Energy/trade +3.5%% m/m vs +0.3% prior
• PPI Ex Foor/Energy/trade +0.5% y/y vs +3.4% prior

This will be the last clean read before the Iran war. Expect a big jump for the March data but this is not a great baseline as the headline y/y number is the highest since January 2025.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Headlines:

• Oil price surge sees momentum being tested, are markets too complacent?
• Iraq-Turkey Pipeline (ITP) to resume at a rate of 250,000 barrels to start with
• Equities continue to put up a strong front this week, at least for now
• Fed preview: the central bank will avoid scaring markets and keep the status quo
• BoC preview: interest rates to remain unchanged; cautious approach amid US-Iran war
• BoJ preview: no changes expected amid lack of inflation progress and geopolitical risk
• Eurozone February final CPI +1.9% vs +1.9% y/y prelim

Markets:

• WTI crude oil down 0.7% to $95.30
• USD and major FX little changed
• European indices sit higher but early gains reduced, S&P 500 futures up 0.3%
• US 10-year yields down 1.3 bps to 4.19%
• Gold drops down 1.1% to…