Market News

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 18 March 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

Today’s Asia session featured hangover effects from the RBA’s hawkish 25bps rate hike to 4.1% (announced March 17), BOJ policy start with steady rates expected, and elevated oil prices over $100/bbl from Middle East tensions, driving volatility in AUD/USD, USD/JPY, crude futures, and gold these instruments saw the sharpest moves as traders weighed inflation risks against growth slowdowns.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Escalating Middle East tensions are driving oil prices above $100 per barrel, as Iran’s actions in the Strait of Hormuz and U.S. military responses heighten supply disruption risks and inflation concerns…

US Stocks Rise Ahead of Fed – Nasdaq up 0.5%
US equity markets edged higher overnight, with investors briefly shifting their focus away from ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East to position ahead of the upcoming policy decision from the Federal Reserve. Gains across the major indices were modest, with the Dow Jones rising 0.10% to 46,993, the S&P 500 adding 0.25% to 6,716, and the Nasdaq outperforming with a 0.47% advance to 22,479. In currency markets, the US dollar continued to soften, with the DXY slipping 0.25% to 99.58. Bond markets reflected a degree of indecision, with the 2-year Treasury yield ticking up 0.3 basis points to 3.674%, while the 10-year yield eased 1.8 basis points to 4.198%, suggesting a modest flattening…

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 18 March 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

The FOMC held rates unchanged at 3.50-3.75% with a hawkish tilt on inflation amid Middle East oil shocks, while February PPI printed 2.9% YoY as expected but underscored sticky wholesale prices prompting DXY strength, oil futures swung around $100/barrel, and softer S&P 500/Nasdaq futures as 2026 rate-cut bets evaporated.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Geopolitical risks in the Middle East dominate, fueling oil spikes and USD strength, while RBA policy, China’s solid industrial rebound, and selective equity gains in tech/AI (e.g., Softbank, Nvidia) shape a volatile Asia session that traders should prioritize oil, AUD crosses, and…

NQ analysis: order flow points to a bullish repair, but not a runaway breakout

Nasdaq price prediction today leans bullish, with a market bias score of +5.8 at investingLive.co, as order flow improves and the Point of Control shifts higher. The recovery looks real, but this still needs to prove it can turn into a lasting trend rather than just a sharp repair move.

The financial markets are currently humming with a renewed sense of optimism, offering a melodic blend of recovery and high-tech ambition. Investors are finding a rhythmic beat in the recent US major indices closing higher, a move fueled significantly by a resurgence in small-cap stocks that suggests a broadening of market breadth. This upward swing is harmonizing perfectly with…

• Barclays flags strongest stock buy signal in a year as sentiment resets
• Fed set to hold as Deutsche Bank flags geopolitics clouding outlook
• China approves Nvidia H200 AI chip sales as licences granted to multiple firms
• China firms ramp up FX hedging as yuan strength threatens export earnings
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.8909 (vs. estimate at 6.8798)
• India is working with Iran to secure safe passage for key fuel shipments through Hormuz,
• Projectile strikes near Iran’s Bushehr nuclear plant, no damage reported
• Japan exports beat forecasts but lose momentum from prior surge
• Australia leading index steady. Growth outlook softens to below trend on rate hikes & war
• Japan firms set for strong wage hikes as labour shortages persist, outlook…

Projectile hits near Iran’s Bushehr nuclear plant, raising risks without immediate damage.

Summary:

• IAEA says a projectile struck the Bushehr nuclear power plant site

• No damage to the facility and no injuries reported

• Strike occurred near, not within, critical nuclear infrastructure

• Bushehr is Iran’s only operational nuclear power plant

• Incident highlights rising risk to nuclear facilities amid conflict

• Adds to geopolitical risk premium despite no immediate escalation

A projectile struck the premises of Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant on Tuesday evening, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), marking a concerning escalation in the proximity of military activity to critical nuclear infrastructure. Iranian authorities…

Japan swings to trade surplus as exports beat expectations despite weak China demand.

Summary:

• Japan February exports +4.2% y/y (exp. +1.6%, prior +16.8%)

• Imports +10.2% y/y (exp. +11.5%, prior -2.5%)

• Trade balance +¥57.3bn (exp. -¥483.2bn, prior -¥1.15tn)

• Exports to China -10.9% y/y, US -8% y/y

• Exports to EU +14% y/y, Asia +2.8% y/y

• Data shows mixed external demand with sharp regional divergence

Japan’s trade balance unexpectedly returned to surplus in February, with Ministry of Finance data showing a surplus of ¥57.3 billion, sharply beating expectations for a ¥483.2 billion deficit and improving significantly from the ¥1.15 trillion deficit recorded in January.

The surprise surplus was driven in part by stronger-than-expected export…

Australia’s leading index holds just above trend, but momentum is fading as headwinds build.

Summary:

• Westpac–Melbourne Institute Leading Index held at +0.08% in February (unchanged from January)

• Down from +0.13% in September, signalling moderating momentum

• Growth remains slightly above trend but losing pace

• Financial components (ASX cooling) offset by commodities and hours worked

• RBA rate hikes and Middle East conflict expected to weigh further

• Westpac sees GDP slowing to ~2.0% in 2026 (from 2.5% in 2025)

Australia’s growth outlook is showing early signs of softening, with the Westpac–Melbourne Institute Leading Index holding steady at +0.08% in February on a six-month annualised basis, unchanged from January but down from stronger readings late…

Russia has been expanding its intelligence sharing and military cooperation with Iran, providing satellite imagery and improved drone technology, according to the WSJ.

The report says "Russia is trying to keep Iran in the fight".

That makes total sense from Russia's perspective as it:

1. Boosts oil prices
2. Gives the US a taste of its own medicine from Ukraine
3. Limits weapons that can be sent to Ukraine
4. Protects a market for its weapons exports
5. Provides a testing ground for its weapons, particularly naval weapons

I can't see any reason why Russia would give up this strategy which is what scares me regarding a prolonged conflict. The echos of Ukraine are extremely strong.

The only downside for Russia is that exporting weapons to Iran right now could…

Data releases today are unlikely to have much of an immediate impact on financial markets.

I’ve noted data for New Zealand and Australia with text as the similarity of the little flags can sometimes be confusing.