Market News

For what it is worth, the US business and retail inventories for the month of December was released:

• Business inventories rose 0.1% versus 0.1% expected. Prior month was revised lower to 0.0% from 0.1%.
• Retail inventories rose 0.4% versus 0.2% last month.

Details:

• Total sales (manufacturers’ shipments + distributive trade): $1,965.9B in December

  • +0.5% m/m vs November 2025

  • +3.2% y/y vs December 2024

• Inventories-to-sales ratio: 1.36 in December

  • 1.39 in December 2024 (ratio declined year over year)

It is early March, so the December data is old as the Census Department continues to catch up after the government shutdown..

• Prior was 0.0%

Details:

• Ex-autos 0.0% vs 0.0% expected
• Prior ex autos 0.0%
• Ex autos and gas +0.3% vs 0.0% prior (revised to +0.1%)
• Control group +0.3%% vs +0.2% expected
• Prior control -0.1% (revised to 0.0%)
• Retail sales y/y +3.2% vs +2.4% prior

This is January data, so it's old news and it's not going to change anything for the market as the focus remains on the US-Iran war and the surging energy prices.

The NFP report is also stealing the show with the huge downside surprise in the headline jobs number and the uptick in the unemployment rate.

What does the Retail Sales report measure?

The Advance Monthly Retail Sales report, published by the U.S. Census Bureau, provides the earliest monthly snapshot of consumer spending across retail sectors.…

• Prior 130K revise to 126K
• nonfarm payroll -92K vs +50 9K estimate
• December was 48K. November was 41K
• Two month that revision:
• Unemployment rate 4.4% vs 4.3% expected. Prior month 4.3%.
• Average hourly earnings 0.4% versus 0.3% expected. Prior month 0.4%
• average hourly earnings YoY 3.8% versus 3.7% expected. Prior month 3.7%.
• Participation rate 62.0% versus 62.1% (revise from 62.5%)
• U6 unemployment rate 7.9% versus 8.1% (revised from 8.0%)

There was some weather. There was some strike effects of around -30K (which will come back).

Headlines:

• Oil prices resume climb to start European morning trade
• Qatar warns that the Middle East conflict could disrupt energy exports for weeks to months
• Qatar reportedly offers to lease LNG tankers as Ras Laffan plant stays shut
• What is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP?
• Japan reportedly mulls releasing national oil reserves amid Middle East conflict
• Japan finance minister says will respond nimbly to latest market movements
• BOJ policymaker Himino: Underlying inflation gradually accelerating to 2% target
• ECB policymaker Sleijpen: We can tolerate a small inflation overshoot
• Eurozone Q4 final GDP +0.2% vs +0.3% q/q second estimate
• UK February Halifax house prices +0.3% vs +0.3% m/m expected

Markets:

• WTI crude oil up 6% at $86.15, Brent…

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 06 March 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

Markets opened amid ongoing Middle East tensions, particularly the US-Iran conflict escalation, with no major new macroeconomic data releases specifically highlighted for that day, though ongoing China National People’s Congress meetings influenced sentiment. Escalating geopolitical risks drove oil prices higher toward $80 per barrel and boosted safe-haven demand for gold and the US dollar, while Asian equities extended declines following Wall Street’s prior drop.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Traders should closely monitor the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, entering its sixth day, which has driven oil prices higher,…

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 0.05%, Shanghai Composite up 0.04%, Hang Seng up 1.77% ASX down 1.20%
• Commodities : Gold at $5,144.01 (1.28%) Silver at $84.630 (2.97%), Brent Oil at $84.47 (-1.08%), WTI Oil at $79.99 (-1.26%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.139, UK 10-year yield at 4.5440, Germany 10-year yield at 2.8535

• (USD) Unemployment Claims  K  to 215K  expected

Asian stock markets are trading mixed on Friday following broadly negative cues from Wall Street overnight, as investors remain cautious about the escalating conflict in the Middle East. Concerns over supply disruptions pushed crude oil prices above $81 a barrel, although gains in energy stocks…

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 0.05%, Shanghai Composite up 0.04%, Hang Seng up 1.77% ASX down 1.20%
• Commodities : Gold at $5,144.01 (1.28%) Silver at $84.630 (2.97%), Brent Oil at $84.47 (-1.08%), WTI Oil at $79.99 (-1.26%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.139, UK 10-year yield at 4.5440, Germany 10-year yield at 2.8535

• (USD) Unemployment Claims  K  to 215K  expected

Asian stock markets are trading mixed on Friday following broadly negative cues from Wall Street overnight, as investors remain cautious about the escalating conflict in the Middle East. Concerns over supply disruptions pushed crude oil prices above $81 a barrel, although gains in energy stocks…

We're starting to see oil prices approach the highs from yesterday and most notably, WTI crude oil is wanting to hold above the crucial $80 mark. Despite all the volatility and a couple of downside spikes here and there, it's been an otherwise one-sided push higher mostly for oil prices all through this week.

Right now, we're seeing WTI crude oil be up 0.7% on the day to $81.70 while Brent crude oil is up 0.6% near the $86 mark. All of this will just continue to reinvigorate talks of prices potentially hitting triple digits next.

The way I see it, the oil market is basically a translation of the vote of confidence from broader market participants towards the US-Iran conflict. And with weekend positioning risks to consider, traders appear to…

US Indices Fall as War in the Middle East Rolls on – Dow down 1.6%
US equity markets moved lower overnight as the conflict in the Middle East entered its sixth day. All three major US indices closed the session in negative territory. The Dow Jones declined 1.61% to finish at 47,954, while the S&P 500 fell 0.56% to 6,830. The Nasdaq proved comparatively resilient, easing 0.26% to close at 22,748. The US dollar continued to strengthen, with the DXY rising 0.29% to 99.08 as investors sought relative safety in the greenback. US Treasury yields also extended their recent move higher, recording a fourth consecutive daily gain. The 2-year Treasury yield increased by 3.2 basis points to 3.579%, while the 10-year yield rose 4.0 basis points to…