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The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here on this.
PBOC inject 173bn yuan via overnight reverse repos
With the hold fully priced, attention shifts to Governor Shin’s news conference at 02:10 GMT for guidance on whether November remains live. A clear signal that the pause is temporary would likely support the won and push short-dated Korean government bond yields higher. A softer emphasis on monitoring the impact of past hikes could weigh on the currency. The board’s caution over recent stock market volatility suggests policymakers are wary of adding pressure to equities, which may offer some relief for the KOSPI. Chipmakers remain at the centre of the growth story given record AI-driven exports. Energy prices are a key upside risk to inflation for Korea as a major oil importer. That leaves the outlook sensitive to any escalation in the…
A target window for an announcement by mid-2027 gives the merger speculation a timeline. That is likely to keep Tesla shares sensitive to any headlines from the special committees, and SpaceX shares sensitive to swings in AI sentiment, since its stock would be the deal currency. A sustained selloff in chip and AI stocks is the key market risk to the deal: it would weaken SpaceX’s valuation leverage and the investor enthusiasm needed for a transaction of this size. The midterm elections on November 3 add a political variable, as a Democratic win in either chamber could bring closer scrutiny of Musk’s businesses. For broader markets, a combination on this scale would intensify focus on AI-related capital spending and cash burn, at a time…
Oil is the market most exposed to this report. The planning points to a window for renewed strikes from early November, once US forces are fully in place, and that timing is likely to keep a geopolitical risk premium embedded in crude. Iran’s threat to target Saudi refineries, including Aramco facilities, specifically to drive up energy prices is a direct risk to physical supply, not just sentiment. Indications that US targeting may avoid oil infrastructure to limit pump price rises offer only partial reassurance, given that Iran would choose its own retaliation targets. Threats against data centres and undersea internet cables add a new technology dimension to the risk. Trump’s record of cancelling strikes at the last minute means…
Dalio’s analysis points to sustained upward pressure on long-dated Treasury yields, as heavy issuance meets weakening demand from foreign buyers and a Fed buying mainly bills. That supports a steeper yield curve and keeps term premium in focus. His warning on Japanese repatriation is significant for currency markets: an unwind of currency-hedged Treasury holdings could support the yen and Japanese government bonds while adding to selling pressure on US debt. For credit, his focus on accelerating hyperscaler issuance and declining free cash flow suggests AI-linked corporate bonds may need to offer wider spreads to clear the market. Equities are the lagging risk in his framework: he sees stocks as vulnerable once higher yields start to…
The end of Bitmine’s buying removes a steady, price-insensitive source of ETH demand, but the bid has already faded to roughly a tenth of its May pace, so much of the adjustment is likely priced in. The bigger swing factor for ETH is whether spot ETF flows and broader risk appetite fill the gap left by treasury companies. A shift to selling staking rewards would add a small but persistent supply overhang. Bitmine shares now trade more on staking income and buybacks than on accumulation.
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Ether’s most reliable corporate buyer is about to stop, but the…
The miss was too small to shift the policy outlook. Markets still price an October 28 hike as near certain and a cumulative 50 basis points of tightening by the end of February. The kiwi’s dip just below 0.57 suggests traders trimmed only the most aggressive hike bets. Oil is the key swing factor from here: the Middle East war is lifting fuel, fertiliser and transport costs, and with petrol already the biggest contributor to inflation, any further rise in crude feeds directly into the expected fourth-quarter rebound. That keeps the risk skewed toward a longer tightening cycle. NZD support is likely to depend on how hawkish the RBNZ’s guidance proves next week rather than on today’s data.
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A hike on November 5 would extend the energy-driven tightening seen across central banks. Any guidance pointing to a February follow-up would likely support sterling, particularly against currencies where central banks are seen as slower to respond. Gilts look the more vulnerable asset: 10-year UK yields already sit at the top of the G7 range, and further tightening alongside reduced fiscal headroom ahead of the Budget could keep pressure on longer-dated debt. For equities, higher rates and energy costs weigh on domestically focused UK stocks, while the FTSE 100’s energy-heavy constituents offer some offset. Oil and gas remain the key swing factor: with household energy bills driving the expected rise in inflation, any further spike in…
The call recasts Tesla’s third-quarter energy shortfall as a supply constraint rather than a demand problem. That may limit the damage from the segment’s sizeable revenue miss, particularly with management guiding to meaningfully higher storage margins. On the balance sheet, more than $45 billion in cash and investments, capex funded mainly from operating cash flow and no plans to draw on new credit lines this year point to a comfortable funding position. That may ease worries about the cost of its autonomy and chip ambitions. The $30 billion facility nonetheless signals that heavier spending is likely in later years. Mark-to-market swings on SpaceX and Bitcoin holdings add a layer of noise to reported earnings. Combined with Musk’s…
JPMorgan’s call reinforces the market’s shift toward valuing SpaceX as an AI infrastructure company rather than a launch and satellite business. That raises the stakes on its ability to build compute capacity and fund it. For Tesla shareholders, a 30% to 35% premium framework gives the merger speculation a concrete reference point and may help underpin the shares while the special committees do their work. China remains the main overhang, given Tesla’s exposure to the Chinese market and SpaceX’s defence ties. Any deal structure that ring-fences or spins off that business would carry its own valuation questions. The heavy capital needs JPMorgan flags also feed into the wider debate over AI-related financing, with SpaceX saying it is not…
Hambro’s view adds a heavyweight institutional voice to the fiscal-debasement case for gold. It suggests that dips driven by shifting rate expectations may be treated as buying opportunities rather than a change in trend. His argument that mining costs are rising more slowly than the gold price supports the case for further margin expansion and equity outperformance across the sector, including copper producers. The buyback criticism carries weight given BlackRock’s large stakes in Newmont, AngloGold Ashanti and Gold Fields. It could push gold majors toward more flexible capital returns, or toward redirecting cash into new mine development. For bond markets, his warning that governments will need to pay higher interest to attract lenders…