Market News

A hold is fully expected, so the market reaction is likely to hinge on the tone of the statement and any signal on the timing of the next hike. A hawkish hold that keeps a further increase firmly on the table would likely support the won and push short-dated Korean government bond yields higher. Any hint that the cycle is nearing its end could weigh on the currency. For equities, a pause offers some relief to rate-sensitive sectors. The semiconductor-led export boom underpinning growth keeps chipmakers at the centre of the market’s growth story. A record-scale current account surplus provides an underlying source of support for the won, even as policy expectations drive day-to-day moves.

-The Bank of Korea is expected to catch its breath…

Oil is the clearest channel for this news. Drawdowns of troops and diplomats are typically read as a signal that the risk of military action is rising, and that is likely to add to the geopolitical risk premium in crude, particularly given the Gulf’s central role in global supply. Traders are likely to watch for any threat to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz or to Saudi energy infrastructure, where disruption would hit physical supply rather than just sentiment. Haven assets such as gold, the US dollar and Treasuries could see support if the moves are followed by confirmation of military action. Risk-sensitive currencies and equities in energy-importing Asian economies may come under pressure. Confirmation from the Pentagon or State…

Confirmation that the $9.9 billion charge was booked in the third quarter reframes the operating income miss as largely one-off. That should ease concerns that rising core costs drove the shortfall. The effective stock split, delivered through non-voting shares, lowers the per-share price without diluting existing holders’ voting power. That means it is likely to be welcomed by retail investors while drawing governance scrutiny from institutions. Upcoming US youth-related trials remain a legal overhang that could bring further charges, keeping litigation risk in focus beyond this quarter. The roughly 1% currency headwind built into Q4 guidance is modest, but it suggests the revenue outlook carries little help from a weaker dollar.

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New Zealand Q3 CPI 3.7% y/y

• expected 3.8%, prior 4.1%

0.7% q/q

• expected 0.8%, prior 1.5%

Background:

• New Zealand CPI preview: Q3 inflation seen easing to 3.8% ahead of likely RBNZ hike

For investors, the main tension is between a clean top-line beat and a deep operating income miss. That leaves the reaction likely to hinge on whether the shortfall is read as a largely one-off legal cost or as a sign of rising structural spending. The Q4 revenue guide, with its midpoint above consensus, supports the view that advertising demand remains robust heading into the holiday quarter. The higher capex floor reinforces Meta’s place among the heaviest spenders in the artificial intelligence infrastructure buildout. That may matter for sentiment toward the broader megacap tech complex and AI hardware suppliers. The new non-voting share class is likely to draw governance questions until Meta sets out its intended use.

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Meta’s…

The quarter is likely to be read as a profitability and cash story rather than a growth story. A margin beat of nearly two percentage points and positive free cash flow ease concerns about pricing pressure and spending. The sharp miss in energy generation and storage is the notable soft spot, given that the segment has been one of the bull case’s diversification arguments, so investors are likely to want an explanation of whether it reflects timing or demand. FSD subscriptions running ahead of expectations support the narrative of growing recurring software revenue. Without guidance in the headline figures, the reaction may lean heavily on management commentary on volumes, autonomy and capital spending.

Earlier (yesterday):

• SpaceX beats Q3…

Rieder’s call adds a heavyweight voice to the argument that higher yields are now drawing large investors back into fixed income. That could help absorb the wave of AI-related corporate issuance that has weighed on credit markets. Support from the world’s largest asset manager may help stabilise spreads on hyperscaler bonds in particular, while debt tied to data centres without hyperscaler backing looks set to stay under pressure. For Treasuries, his warning that rates could still rise, along with his concern over government debt costs and crowding out from AI supply, suggests the bond buying case rests on income rather than price gains. With markets pricing a December Fed hike at close to 90%, the main near-term risk to the trade remains…

US stocks closed higher on Wednesday, with the Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 leading the way. Technology buyers were making a play, with strong gains across server makers, software, networking and data-center-related shares.

Super Micro Computer helped underpin the improved tone after raising its outlook on stronger AI platform demand. Netflix moved in the opposite direction, showing that earnings and guidance are still separating the winners from the losers.

The gains extended across all five major indices, but participation was less convincing beneath the surface. The Russell 2000 rose just 0.16%, while S&P 500 advancing stocks only narrowly outnumbered decliners.

The closing numbers

• Dow Industrial Average: +361.22 points (+0.69%) at…

• US stocks close higher as tech leads the rally
• New Zealand CPI preview: Q3 inflation seen easing to 3.8% ahead of likely RBNZ hike
• US State Department is to prepared to issue a order departure at US embassies in the Gulf
• Bitcoin shows some buying life as risk-on flows return and push the digital currency higher
• US treasury sells $13 billion of 20 year bonds at a high yield of 5.469%
• European stocks close higher, but French yields hit their highest since 2002
• Crude oil inventories show a draw of -3.060M versus estimate of -0.82 million drawdown
• US stocks open higher as earnings and AI demand take center stage
• Crude oil futures reacted to the news headlines keeps traders focused on the technicals
• Morning Kickstart: Dollar mixed as oil swings on…

Crude oil has moved back to the upside amid renewed concerns about a possible resumption of hostilities in the Middle East. According to a Reuters report citing U.S. officials, the State Department is preparing to order the departure of some personnel and family members from U.S. embassies across the Gulf. The preparations reflect concerns about renewed hostilities, particularly involving the Iran-aligned Houthi militia in Yemen.

The headline adds another layer of uncertainty for oil traders. The potential for progress on diplomacy can bring prices lower, but concerns about renewed fighting can quickly bring buyers back into the market. The latest report puts the focus back on the risks surrounding regional security and energy…

NZD/USD heads into the release around 0.57, having recovered part of its slide to a mid-October low, its weakest level since April 2025. A headline print at or above 3.9%, or firmer core readings, would likely lock in hike pricing and support the kiwi. A result near 3.7% could trim those odds at the margin without derailing them. Beyond today’s number, oil remains the dominant driver: with crude elevated and the currency weaker, imported energy costs are set to keep New Zealand’s inflation outlook, and the RBNZ’s tightening bias, tilted to the upside into year-end.

New Zealand’s Q3 inflation is expected to ease only briefly, with oil and a softer currency already lining up a fourth-quarter rebound that keeps the RBNZ on a hiking path.

The NZDUSD is stretching to the upside, reaching its highest level since September 23. Buyers have been rebuilding the technical picture after the pair’s decline from the August 21 high at 0.59868 to last Wednesday’s low at 0.55645.

That recovery has developed one step at a time. First, the price broke above a downward-sloping trendline. Then it moved above its 100- and 200-hour moving averages and started to put some distance between the price and those technical barometers. A subsequent break above the swing area between 0.56256 and 0.56333 gave buyers another reason to push higher.

Today, the pair cleared another swing area between 0.5673 and 0.5686. The encouraging part for buyers was what happened next: the price rotated back toward…