Market News

Crude oil has moved back to the upside amid renewed concerns about a possible resumption of hostilities in the Middle East. According to a Reuters report citing U.S. officials, the State Department is preparing to order the departure of some personnel and family members from U.S. embassies across the Gulf. The preparations reflect concerns about renewed hostilities, particularly involving the Iran-aligned Houthi militia in Yemen.

The headline adds another layer of uncertainty for oil traders. The potential for progress on diplomacy can bring prices lower, but concerns about renewed fighting can quickly bring buyers back into the market. The latest report puts the focus back on the risks surrounding regional security and energy…

NZD/USD heads into the release around 0.57, having recovered part of its slide to a mid-October low, its weakest level since April 2025. A headline print at or above 3.9%, or firmer core readings, would likely lock in hike pricing and support the kiwi. A result near 3.7% could trim those odds at the margin without derailing them. Beyond today’s number, oil remains the dominant driver: with crude elevated and the currency weaker, imported energy costs are set to keep New Zealand’s inflation outlook, and the RBNZ’s tightening bias, tilted to the upside into year-end.

New Zealand’s Q3 inflation is expected to ease only briefly, with oil and a softer currency already lining up a fourth-quarter rebound that keeps the RBNZ on a hiking path.

The NZDUSD is stretching to the upside, reaching its highest level since September 23. Buyers have been rebuilding the technical picture after the pair’s decline from the August 21 high at 0.59868 to last Wednesday’s low at 0.55645.

That recovery has developed one step at a time. First, the price broke above a downward-sloping trendline. Then it moved above its 100- and 200-hour moving averages and started to put some distance between the price and those technical barometers. A subsequent break above the swing area between 0.56256 and 0.56333 gave buyers another reason to push higher.

Today, the pair cleared another swing area between 0.5673 and 0.5686. The encouraging part for buyers was what happened next: the price rotated back toward…

• Prior auction yield 5.420%

Details of the 20 year auction Jesus Christ

• WI level at the time of the auction: 5.460%

• High yield: 5.469%

• WI level at the time of the auction: 5.460%

• Tail: 0.9 basis points vs the average of 0.2 basis points

• Bid to cover: 2.73X vs the average of 2.62X

• Directs: 31.6% vs the average of 22.9%

• Indirects: 58.2% vs the average of 65.2%

• Dealers: 10.3% vs the average of 11.9%

Auction grade: C

A mixed auction overall. The Treasury had to pay 0.9 basis points above the WI yield to get the bonds sold, a larger concession than the average of 0.2 basis points. Indirect demand was also softer than average. On the positive side, bid to cover was stronger, direct bidders stepped up, and dealers were left with less supply than usual.…

Bitcoin buyers are making a play to the upside after sellers could not extend the price lower.

The price is currently trading near $84,518, up around $1,700, or 2.11%. The rally gained momentum after breaking above the 100- and 200-hour moving averages near $82,100. Buyers have now pushed above last week’s swing high near $84,178, giving them another technical break in their favor.

The buyers have taken back control in the short term. Now they need to hold it.

Where is the risk for buyers?

The closest risk-defining level is the broken swing high at $84,178. When the price breaks above resistance, traders want to see that level become support. Staying above it would keep the buyers firmly in control. Moving back below would take some of the…

As London and European traders head home, the major European stock indices are closing higher. Germany’s DAX led the advance, while the UK’s FTSE 100 lagged but still finished with a modest gain.

The closing snapshot shows:

• German DAX: +342.67 points or 1.35% at 25,647.10

• France CAC: +83.19 points or 1.06% at 7,921.69

• UK FTSE 100: +19.88 points or 0.19% at 10,752.87

• Spain IBEX: +231.10 points or 1.21% at 19,323.50

• Italy FTSE MIB: +572.32 points or 1.17% at 49,643.68

One headline getting attention came from a US official who said Russia accepted the American proposal for a trilateral meeting with Ukraine. Subsequent reporting says the Kremlin agreed to renewed technical-level talks on or after November 10, potentially in Abu Dhabi. That is a step…

The AUDUSD has staged a steady recovery since reaching 0.6894 last Thursday, its lowest level since early July. There have been modest corrections along the way, but buyers have continued to push higher. Today, the AUD is the strongest of the major currencies against the greenback.

However, that rally has reached an important technical hurdle.

The price extended to its 100-day moving average at 0.70332, with the session high reaching 0.7036 before sellers leaned against that level.

The buck stopped there.

The price has since rotated lower to 0.70185, taking it below the 38.2% retracement of the decline from the September high at 0.7025, and below the lower boundary of a swing area at 0.7020. That gives sellers an opening, but they still need…

US weekly crude oil inventories fall 3.060 million barrels vs 0.820 million draw expected

• Crude oil: −3.060 million barrels vs −0.820 million expected. Prior −8.557 million.

• Gasoline: −2.952 million barrels vs −0.443 million expected. Prior +3.518 million.

• Distillates: +1.675 million barrels vs −1.162 million expected. Prior −2.527 million.

US crude oil inventories fell more than expected in the Energy Information Administration’s weekly report. Gasoline stocks also recorded a larger-than-expected draw, but an unexpected build in distillates provided an offset.

Last night’s private inventory data

The American Petroleum Institute (API) figures, as reported by Julianne Geiger in the supplied screenshot, showed:

• Crude oil: −4.93 million barrels vs…

The USDCAD formed a double top near 1.42984 last Wednesday before sellers took control. Over the next five trading days, the pair fell to a low of 1.4032—a decline of about 266 pips.

That move took the price below its 100-day moving average near 1.4041 yesterday. However, sellers could not sustain the break, and the price rebounded. They had their shot below a key technical level. They missed.

In the Asian and European sessions today, sellers tried again. The price dipped below the 100-day moving average, now near 1.4042, but only reached 1.4039 before bouncing back above it. A second attempt below the moving average also failed to find follow-through selling.

Today’s rebound developed more momentum than yesterday’s, taking out the early…

Crude oil futures have been on a roller coaster, with competing headlines sending traders scrambling in both directions.

Yesterday, the price surged toward $101.40 before tumbling to around $95.30, then rebounding again. Reports of progress toward inspections of Iranian nuclear facilities encouraged selling, but conflicting reports and denials helped reverse that move.

The headlines keep changing. The uncertainty remains.

Negotiations continue, but an agreement remains elusive

The overnight headlines offered another reminder of why traders need to remain flexible. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said indirect negotiations are continuing through intermediary countries, including Pakistan and Qatar. He also outlined a proposal that includes…

US stocks are opening higher, giving buyers the early advantage as investors digest earnings from SpaceX and Netflix, a stronger outlook from Super Micro Computer, and fresh AI announcements from Nvidia.

• Dow Industrial Average: The Dow is modestly higher to kickstart the day

• S&P 500: The broader S&P is up 18 points or 0.24%

• Nasdaq Composite: The tech heavy Nasdaq composite index is leading with a gain of 140 points or 0.56%

SpaceX climbs as AI and Starlink drive growth

SpaceX shares are trading higher by around 8.6% following a strong third-quarter report. Revenue surged 161% from a year ago to $14.6 billion, while net income reached $4.4 billion, reversing a year-earlier loss of $1.1 billion. Its Super Intelligence segment generated $7.6…

US stocks are opening higher, giving buyers the early advantage as investors digest earnings from SpaceX and Netflix, a stronger outlook from Super Micro Computer, and fresh AI announcements from Nvidia.

• Dow Industrial Average: The Dow is modestly higher to kickstart the day

• S&P 500: The broader S&P is up 18 points or 0.24%

• Nasdaq Composite: The tech heavy Nasdaq composite index is leading with a gain of 140 points or 0.56%

SpaceX climbs as AI and Starlink drive growth

SpaceX shares are trading higher by around 8.6% following a strong third-quarter report. Revenue surged 161% from a year ago to $14.6 billion, while net income reached $4.4 billion, reversing a year-earlier loss of $1.1 billion. Its Super Intelligence segment generated $7.6…