Market News

The markets are starting Wednesday with a familiar problem: the US and Iran are reportedly still talking, but the headlines continue to pull traders in different directions.

Crude oil has already traded above $100 and back below it. US Treasury yields are modestly lower, stock futures are pointing higher, and the dollar is mixed. There is movement, but there is no consistent message across markets.

In the morning video above, I take a look at the three major currency pairs—EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD—from a technical perspective. For each pair, I outline the bias, the risk-defining levels and the targets that would give either the buyers or sellers more control.

Oil and the Middle East: Talking does not mean a deal is done

At 7:30 AM ET, crude…

The S&P 500 rallied yesterday after Al-Arabiya reported that Qatar and Pakistan presented a compromise proposal that could pave the way for an agreement, but the bullish momentum faded after a diplomat involved in the talks subsequently pushed back against reports that a deal was close.

Despite the pushback, the market didn’t erase the gains as hopes for a breakthrough before the midterm elections grew given the recent increase in positive headlines. A deal would probably send the S&P 500 to new all-time highs on easing inflation and rate hike concerns, and improving growth prospects. A prolonged stalemate, on the other hand, might keep the upside limited.

This week,…

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Headlines:

• Zcash jumps after US-Iran deal hopes improve crypto market sentiment. What to watch next?
• Crude oil volatility increases amid conflicting reports over US-Iran negotiations
• Connecting the dots: How rising government bond yields could hurt your retirement savings
• European markets steady for now but widening bond yield spreads offer a warning
• Bitcoin rallies on US-Iran deal hopes amid increasingly positive reports. What's next?
• Macro pulse: Is the BOJ about to raise interest rates at the worst possible time?
• Silver whipsaws on conflicting US-Iran deal reports as markets hope for breakthrough ahead of midterms
• European stock market open: Stocks tread cautiously as French bond market keeps the mood in check
• Chart of the day: Gold price eyes…

Crude oil whipsawed yesterday on some positive but conflicting reports around the ongoing US-Iran negotiations.

Al-Arabiya reported that Qatar and Pakistan presented a "compromise proposal" that met the demands of both the American and Iranian sides. The new proposal also included partial response to Iran's frozen funds demand.

Oil prices sold off initially as expectations of an imminent deal grew stronger but then reversed after a diplomat involved in US-Iran talks said that negotiations continue and that reports of a deal being close were wrong.

If we do get a breakthrough, we can expect crude oil to sell off hard on expectations of improved energy supply amid the …

As most other cryptocurrencies, Zcash rallied yesterday after Al-Arabiya reported that Qatar and Pakistan presented a compromise proposal that could pave the way for a US-Iran agreement, but the momentum faded somewhat after a diplomat involved in the talks pushed back against reports that a deal was close.

Markets seem to retain some hope of a breakthrough given the recent increase in positive headlines and the proximity to the US midterm elections. Trump might make more concessions to secure at least a short-term deal to bring oil prices and Treasury yields lower, while boosting the stock market.

It goes without saying that a breakthrough would push Zcash to new…

European equities are keeping steadier so far today with France's benchmark CAC 40 index even holding up by 0.3% on the session. Meanwhile, the euro is also only slightly lower against the dollar but is still holding above the 1.1200 level at around 1.1215 currently. That suggests traders are not quite rushing for the exits just yet.

That being said, I wouldn't be too quick to mistake the calmer mood for an improvement in the underlying risks for European markets. Not especially when the bond market is hinting at a different mood.

The France-Germany 10-year yield spread has widened further to around 158 bps today, marking its highest level since 2011. And if you look at the chart, we're now revisiting levels last seen during the height of…

Just imagine you have a decent sum of money and that you are looking for good investment to get into. Now, someone comes up to you and offers you a relatively safe investment that pays 5% a year. That doesn't sound too shabby, no? Especially when you don't have to pick your brain in trying to find the next big stock market winner.

Well, that's essentially what government bonds are offering in this market. With Treasury yields hovering around 5% lately, that proposition is looking rather attractive.

So, what happens when investors can earn decent returns without taking much risk? All of a sudden, everything else has to work a little harder to compete with what those bonds are offering.

I mean, think about it. If you can earn 5% from a US…

Bitcoin remains mostly rangebound amid uncertainty around US-Iran negotiations and growing concerns about the macroeconomic outlook. We got an upward spike yesterday after Al-Arabiya reported that Qatar and Pakistan presented a compromise proposal that could pave the way for an agreement, but the momentum faded after a diplomat involved in the talks subsequently pushed back against reports that a deal was close.

Markets retain some hope of a breakthrough given the recent increase in positive headlines and the proximity to the US midterm elections. A deal would ease inflation and rate hike concerns and improve the risk sentiment, providing some short-term support for Bitcoin.

I don't think anyone would want to the be in the BOJ's shoes right now. On the one hand, inflation pressures are giving policymakers every reason to keep raising interest rates. But on the other hand, Japan's economy is already dealing with expensive energy imports and a weak yen - not to mention a very uncertain global outlook.

If that isn't problematic enough, then here's the kicker. The inflation pressures that are building aren't exactly the kind that the BOJ has been hoping for.

The central bank has spent decades in trying to nurture a healthier cycle of rising wages, stronger consumer spending, and sustainable price increases. For the most part, those efforts went nowhere. And it took a global economic reset from the Covid pandemic to…

Hola Prime, a global proprietary trading firm, today announced the launch of TheRulebook, a consolidated rulebook designed to make trading rules and account conditions easier to access, understand and track.

The updated rulebook brings key information covering challenge passing criteria, conditions, trading rules, breach conditions and account requirements into one place. It also maintains transparent change logs, allowing traders to follow updates to the rules and understand how the firm's requirements evolve over time.

By centralising this information, Hola Prime aims to give traders a clearer reference point throughout their trading journey, from understanding account…

Silver spiked to the upside yesterday after some positive news on the US-Iran negotiations front. In fact, Al-Arabiya reported that Qatar And Pakistan presented a "compromise proposal" that met the demands of both the American and Iranian sides and that the Pakistan Army Chief carried a proposal with US and Iran approval. The new proposal also included partial response to Iran's frozen funds demand.

The market cheered initially as expectations of an imminent deal grew stronger but then reversed after a diplomat involved in US-Iran talks said that negotiations continue and that reports of a deal being close were wrong.

Nevertheless, the markets retain some hope given the sudden increase…