Market News

Silver spiked to the upside yesterday after some positive news on the US-Iran negotiations front. In fact, Al-Arabiya reported that Qatar And Pakistan presented a "compromise proposal" that met the demands of both the American and Iranian sides and that the Pakistan Army Chief carried a proposal with US and Iran approval. The new proposal also included partial response to Iran's frozen funds demand.

The market cheered initially as expectations of an imminent deal grew stronger but then reversed after a diplomat involved in US-Iran talks said that negotiations continue and that reports of a deal being close were wrong.

Nevertheless, the markets retain some hope given the sudden increase…

Treasury yields are primarily driven by expectations for the future path of Federal Reserve monetary policy. This relationship is especially strong at the front end of the yield curve, where yields are closely linked to expectations about how the Fed will adjust interest rates over the near-term. However, monetary policy expectations remain important even at the long end of the curve. The difference is that longer-term yields are also more sensitive to changes in the economic outlook, inflation expectations and the compensation investors demand for holding long-duration bonds, called term premium.

The front-end is driven by monetary policy expectations

The 2-year Treasury yield is one of the most useful indicators of market expectations for…

Gold continues to find itself on the defensive in the past few weeks, as the precious metal is unable to gather much reprieve from both a fundamental and technical perspective.

On the former, the bond market continues to play a key role. With 10-year Treasury yields hovering above 5%, the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset like gold is rather difficult to ignore. And that angle currently outweighs the fact that gold has historically been a solid hedge against geopolitical and inflation risks.

Meanwhile, the technicals are also reflecting that struggle quite clearly. Looking at the 4-hour chart, sellers have repeatedly defended the $4,200-20 region since the start of October. The 100-period moving average (red line) has also…

European equities are keeping to a rather subdued start on Wednesday, with major indices showing little appetite to build on the recovery in Wall Street overnight. The opening changes:

• Eurostoxx +0.1%
• Germany DAX -0.1%
• France CAC 40 +0.1%
• UK FTSE -0.2%
• Spain IBEX -0.3%
• Italy FTSE MIB -0.1%

There's not much to get excited about from the early moves but I would argue that the bigger story in Europe right now isn't what we're seeing in the equities space. It's what is happening in the bond market.

The France-Germany 10-year yield spread has widened to around 154 bps today, pushing above the 150 bps mark and keeping near its widest levels since the Eurozone debt crisis in 2012.

After a relentless climb since September, the spread is now pushing past…

IC – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 21 October 2026
What happened in the U.S. session?

The U.S. session was driven mainly by U.S.–Iran headlines, falling oil prices, and weak housing data. The weaker housing figures pushed Treasury yields lower and weighed on the dollar, while hopes for progress toward a peace agreement caused sharp swings in oil. U.S. stocks finished mostly higher, supported by corporate earnings, although technology shares remained under pressure.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Asian traders should focus on Middle East tensions, oil prices, the U.S. dollar, bond yields, and Asian equity-market sentiment. Oil supply risks are supporting crude prices and increasing inflation concerns, while a weaker dollar and…

IC – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 21 October 2026
What happened in the Asia session?

Asian markets were generally positive on Wednesday, supported by strong US corporate earnings and gains in regional stocks. The Australian dollar benefited from hawkish RBA comments, while the US dollar remained under pressure as Treasury yields eased. Oil prices stayed elevated because of Middle East supply risks, keeping inflation concerns alive and creating uncertainty for gold and energy-sensitive currencies.

What does it mean for the European & US sessions?

Today’s main focus is UK inflation, Bailey’s comments, U.S. oil inventories, and the direction of the U.S. dollar and bond yields. UK CPI above the 3.4% forecast could strengthen the pound,…

Global Markets:
● Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 0.92%, Shanghai Composite down 0.31% Hang Seng down 0.37% ASX up 0.06%
● Commodities : Gold at $4,134.95 (-0.18%) Silver at $57.493 (-0.90%), Brent Oil at 110.26 (1.35%), WTI Oil at 99.03 (1.24%)
● Rates : US 10-year yield at 5.125, UK 10-year yield at 5.4139, Germany 10-year yield at 3.3936
News & Data:

● (USD) Housing Starts 1.22M to 1.30M expected
Markets Update:

U.S. stocks ended mixed on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rallying as upbeat corporate earnings and falling oil prices helped offset concerns about artificial intelligence-related stocks.
The Dow climbed 529.85 points, or 1.02%, to close at 52,495.88. The S&P 500 advanced 0.28% to…

• UK September CPI +3.5% vs +3.4% y/y expected
• Prior +3.1%
• UK September core CPI +2.8% vs +2.8% y/y expected
• Prior +2.6%

As expected, headline annual inflation surged in the Uk during the past month with the reading being the highest since October last year.

Higher energy costs are the main culprit here as transport, particularly motor fuels, made the largest upward contribution to the change in annual price pressures. Of note, the average price of petrol rose by 8.2 pence per litre between August and September 2026, compared with a fall of 0.2 pence per litre between August and September 2025. The average price stood at 169.5 pence per litre in September 2026. This is the highest price recorded since August 2022.

Besides the rise in headline…

DXY (U.S. Dollar Index):
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish
The price has already bounced from the support area and could continue its short-term bullish recovery toward the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 101.49
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, where renewed buying pressure could emerge and support further upside.
1st support: 100.98
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support and a recent breakout area. If price reverses from the pivot, this level could provide the first area of support.
1st resistance: 102.85
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, which could potentially act as a profit-taking level and cap further upside.

EUR/USD:
Potential Direction:…

**US Stocks Mixed as Oil Crashes – Dow up 1%**

US equity markets finished mixed yesterday as the Dow Jones Industrial Average led the gains, while technology stocks struggled to make ground. The Dow rallied 1.02% to close at 52,495, while the S&P 500 advanced 0.28% to finish at 7,712. The Nasdaq was the weakest of the major indices, edging 0.02% lower to close at 26,424 as investors remained cautious towards the technology sector ahead of further key earnings updates. Broader market sentiment remained heavily influenced by geopolitical developments, particularly the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

US Treasury yields were mixed across the curve as traders continued to assess the outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy alongside…

There are a couple of key expiry levels to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below.

The first ones are for EUR/USD with the expiries layered at the 1.1195 to 1.1200 region. The strikes are holding within 30 pips of the spot price and together, they are quite chunky in size. As such, the combined €4.3 billion in expiries could exert some pull towards the 1.1200 region heading into the cut. Or if anything else, they might also help reinforce the area as an intraday focal point.

Having said that, broader euro and dollar sentiment will still take precedence alongside what else is happening with the bond market of course.

The euro has its own set of problems with the France-Germany 10-year yield spread hitting 1.52% yesterday, its…