In the short run, Fed tightening and rising long-term yields dominate gold. Further hike expectations are likely to cap rallies until the end point for US rates becomes clearer. The resource nationalism trend is a slower-moving supply story, and it argues for buying the dips over a multi-year horizon. If more producers refine at home and restrict exports, the pool of metal available to international refiners and the London market could shrink. That would make prices more sensitive to central bank and investment demand. Persistent official buying, led by China, adds a steady floor of demand that rate moves alone don’t remove.
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Earlier, the $4K level contention:
- Oil is gold’s biggest enemy right now, Bank of America warns. Downside risk under $4000.
- Morgan Stanley’s Gower sees $4,000 as a strong floor for gold, cites three supports
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Asia’s gold producers have noticed what the colonial powers once did: the real value lies in keeping the metal rather than shipping out the ore.
Summary:
- Asian gold producers are boosting domestic refining, taxing exports and buying for central bank reserves to capture more value from the rally.
- Laos aims to refine its output at home through the Lao Bullion Bank. Indonesia will tax gold exports by up to 15% from 2026.
- China’s central bank extended a record streak of net purchases to 22 months in August. Similar moves are under way in Africa.
- Waning confidence in the dollar and sanctions risk are adding to gold’s appeal as a reserve asset.
- Near term, gold is under pressure from Fed hikes and higher yields, but the trend could support prices over the long term.
Gold-producing countries across Asia are moving to keep more of their metal at home, Nikkei Asia (gated) reported. They are building domestic refining capacity, taxing exports and stepping up central bank purchases in a wave of resource nationalism that could tighten global supply over time.
The shift follows a powerful rally. London spot gold hit a record above $5,500 an ounce in January and remains above $4,000. Waning confidence in the dollar as the world’s reserve currency is adding to gold’s appeal, after sanctions froze dollar assets held by countries at odds with Washington.
Laos has long seen its gold leave the country as low-value ore. It now wants to refine its output at home, with the Lao Bullion Bank, set up in 2024, at the centre of the push. The country produced around 12 tons in 2025, according to the World Gold Council, and estimates its reserves at 500 to 1,000 tons.
Indonesia, which mines more than 100 tons a year, will impose an export tax of up to 15% on gold from 2026. China, the largest producer, generally restricts gold exports, and its central bank extended its run of net purchases to a record 22 months in August. Similar moves are under way in Africa, including in Madagascar and Ghana.
The result could be less metal circulating internationally. One precious metals consultancy warned the trend will affect major refiners’ ability to source gold.
In the near term, gold faces headwinds. Prices slipped to around $4,100 on September 28, roughly 12% below the late-August peak near $4,700. They have been weighed down by rising long-term yields and by expectations of further US rate rises, after the Federal Reserve hiked in September for the first time in more than three years. That pressure is likely to persist until the peak in US rates becomes clearer.
Over the longer run, however, ANZ’s Geullim Yum said the actions of producer countries could become another factor pushing gold prices higher.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.