The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth forecast for Q3 remained unchanged as 3.6% after the data dump this morning. In their own words:
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2026 is 3.6 percent on October 15, unchanged from October 8 after rounding. After this morning’s retail sales and inventories reports from the US Census Bureau, an increase in the nowcast of third-quarter annualized real personal consumption expenditures growth from 3.4 percent to 3.6 percent was partly offset by a decrease in the nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to third-quarter GDP growth from 1.96 percentage points to 1.87 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, October 20. Please see the “Release Dates” tab for a list of upcoming releases.The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow is a running estimate of U.S. economic growth ahead of the official GDP report.
What GDPNow measures
GDPNow uses incoming economic reports—such as retail sales, trade, construction and inventories—to estimate the components of gross domestic product. It follows a methodology similar to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which produces the official GDP figures. As new data arrive, the model updates its estimate. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
A few distinctions help explain the number:
- It is a model estimate. GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed or the Federal Reserve, and economists do not make subjective adjustments to its results.
- It measures real growth, meaning growth after adjusting for inflation.
- It uses a seasonally adjusted annual rate. A 3.6% reading describes the pace if that quarter’s growth continued for a full year.
- It can change as reports arrive. It provides an early guide to the official GDP release, with uncertainty around the eventual result. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
What Q1 and Q2 GDP came in at
Using the latest BEA estimates available as of October 15, all on the same real, annualized basis:
- Q1 2026: +2.5%. Revised higher from +2.1% in the September 30 annual update.
- Q2 2026: +2.2%. Revised higher from +1.5% in the third estimate released September 30. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
- Q3 2026: +3.6% GDPNow estimate, according to the update you provided. The BEA’s first official Q3 estimate is scheduled for October 29 at 8:30 AM ET. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
What stands out in today’s update
The headline stayed unchanged after rounding, but the underlying mix shifted. Expected real consumer spending growth improved from 3.4% to 3.6%, while the expected inventory contribution slipped from 1.96 to 1.87 percentage points.
The consumer upgrade is encouraging. However, inventories are still expected to account for roughly half of the headline growth estimate. That makes the composition worth watching: stronger spending supports the demand story, while a large inventory boost can be less durable if businesses subsequently slow their stockbuilding.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.