The AUDUSD traded up and down yesterday but spent most of the session below its 100-hour moving average. That moving average came back into play near 0.7116 at the start of today’s Asia-Pacific session. Buyers tested it, but could not push through. Once the price turned lower and moved away from the average, sellers gained momentum.
The first important downside test was the 50% retracement at 0.70795 of the move higher from the July 29 low. The price initially bounced from that level toward yesterday’s low near 0.70908, but the recovery stalled. Sellers then pushed the pair below both the midpoint and the 100-day moving average at 0.70737.
Those breaks matter because the midpoint and the 100-day moving average gave buyers two opportunities to hold support. Buyers had their shot. When neither level held, the selling intensified.
Sellers reach the next support area
The decline continued into a swing area between 0.7020 and 0.7027, defined by highs going back to mid-June. Today’s low of 0.7026 reached that area. The pair also came within about 8 pips of its rising 200-day moving average at 0.70177. It is currently trading near 0.70395.
For newer traders, an old resistance area can become support after a market breaks above it. Traders who bought the earlier breakout may defend the area on a return, while others may see it as a place to take profits on short positions. That does not guarantee a bounce, but it explains why the market may pause here.
What would give buyers some relief?
The swing area and 200-day moving average make 0.7018–0.7027 the key support zone. Buyers looking for a rebound can lean against it, with a sustained break below the 200-day moving average signaling that the support trade is no longer working.
The first step toward a recovery would be a move back above the broken 61.8% retracement at 0.70422. The price is just below it now. Getting above that level would give buyers a small victory, but the more meaningful test would come at the broken 100-day moving average near 0.70737. A bounce into that average that stalls would leave sellers in control.
What if support breaks?
A sustained move below the 200-day moving average at 0.70177 would mark the first break below that average since November 2025. That would be a meaningful change in the longer-term technical picture. I would not fight a break that holds below it; sellers would have cleared the support area that is currently giving buyers their best opportunity to slow the decline.
For now, the question is whether buyers can defend 0.7018–0.7027 and reclaim 0.70422. If they cannot, the sellers remain in control.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.