FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
Bitcoin saw a quick dip overnight with reportedly more than $400 million
of leveraged longs liquidated in roughly one hour, although there was no catalyst
for the move. It must be said, though, that were no reasons for more gains
either as macro and geopolitical headwinds continue to limit the upside.
On the regulatory side, the CFTC proposed a new federal framework for
crypto trading venues on October 5. The proposal would allow qualifying
exchanges to opt into federal CFTC oversight and introduce requirements such as
proof of reserves and market-manipulation controls. That’s structurally
positive for crypto, but the focus has been on macro recently.
Treasury yields and the US dollar rose again after oil prices jumped
following Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, including airports, while there were also
reports of damage to Saudi energy infrastructure.
Moreover, a developing storm is threatening US
Gulf production and refining infrastructure. Reuters estimated that
facilities responsible for around 15% of US crude production and 5% of
natural-gas production could be affected, while up to six major refineries
could face disruption
These are not game-changing news, but they can keep oil prices supported
in the short-term and therefore provide a tailwind for Treasury yields and the
US dollar.
With a light economic calendar this week, Bitcoin could remain
rangebound in the absence of a major catalyst. A breakthrough in US-Iran
negotiations could support Bitcoin by easing inflation and rate hike concerns,
while a renewed escalation in tensions could trigger another sharp selloff.
BITCOIN TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME
On the daily chart, we can
see that Bitcoinis pulling back into the
major upward trendline where we have also the major 82,500 support zone for
confluence. We can expect the buyers to step in there, with a defined risk
below the support, to position for a rally into the 98,000 level. The sellers,
on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to pile in for a
correction into the 75,000 level next.
BITCOIN TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see the price broke below the minor support zone around the 85,000 level and
extended the losses as more sellers piled in to target a pullback into the
82,500 support. If we get a bounce around the 82,500 support, we can expect the
sellers to step in around the 85,000 resistance, with a defined risk above it,
to position for a break below the trendline and the 82,500 support. The buyers,
on the other hand, will look for a break above the resistance to increase the
bullish bets into the 98,000 level next.
BITCOIN TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 1 hour chart, we
have a minor downward trendline defining the recent bearish momentum. If the
price pulls back into the trendline, we can expect the sellers to lean on it,
with a defined risk above it, to keep pushing into new lows. The buyers, on the
other hand, will look for a break higher to start positioning for a rally into
new highs. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
UPCOMING CATALYSTS
Todaywe
have the FOMC meeting minutes. Tomorrow, we get the latest US Jobless Claims
figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the University of Michigan
Consumer Sentiment survey.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.