- We stand ready to adjust our stance as the outlook evolves
- UK economic activity is subdued, and the labour market is soft
- There is little as of yet to suggest higher energy prices are embedded
- While household inflation expectations have fallen, they remain elevated
- Pressures are building more slowly than we thought in April
- I am seeing broader slowing in domestic inflation
- Weak demand is limiting the pass-through of higher costs to prices
- Spare capacity in the job market is likely to reduce workers’ capacity to get pay rises
- The lack of evidence so far does not rule out future second-round effects
- Our overall assessment of second-round effects remains tentative
- If the Middle East conflict persists and we get 2nd-round effects, we will likely need to raise rates
- Current market pricing reflects risk premia rather than central expectations for the bank rate
- The rate curve seems in a reasonable position
- Should attach a lower than usual probability to the BoE’s central scenario
- The central view in the market is that rates will stay on hold
- Do not leave this room thinking that the BoE is edging towards a hike
- We are not talking about an insurance hike
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.