- Prior was +2.8%
- CPI m/m +0.5% vs +0.4% expected (prior was -0.4%)
- BOC core +0.2% m/m vs +0.1% prior
- BOC core +2.3% y/y vs +2.1% prior
- CPI median +2.0% vs +1.9% expected
- CPI trim +1.9% vs +1.8% expected
- CPI common +2.7% vs +2.6% prior
Canadian inflation has been tracking the rise in oil prices but is insulated somewhat by falling home prices and rents in some parts of the country. The Bank of Canada looks to be firmly in neutral territory at the moment but with the chance of a hike by December rising to 70% and 65 bps of hikes priced in over the next year.
For this report, prices for gasoline grew at a faster rate in July of +25.7% y/y compared with June at +20.5% y/y. In a related move, prices for travel tours rose at a faster pace in July (+15.2%) compared with June (+6.8%), likely also aided by the World Cup boost. There are more concrete signs of inflation hitting airfares as well as they’re up 12.0% versus 9.6% in June.
The bulk of inflation remains in transportation but food and recreation are also adding.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.