For oil, the split between recovering volumes and stubbornly high physical prices is the key tension. Restored crude flows argue for lower benchmark prices over time, but the premium in Dated Brent shows buyers are still paying up for prompt barrels to rebuild depleted inventories, which keeps the front of the curve steeply backwardated. Refined products remain the tightest corner, supporting diesel and jet margins even as crude supply normalises. The weekend’s Houthi claims against Saudi Aramco facilities are an immediate test, since Saudi barrels have led the recovery, and any confirmed disruption would likely widen the physical premium again.
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The barrels are back, but the fear isn’t: Gulf exports have normalised while physical buyers keep paying war prices.
Summary:
- Goldman Sachs estimates Persian Gulf oil exports, including dark exports, recovered to 22-23 mb/d over the past two weeks, broadly in line with their 2025 average
- Physical Dated Brent prices remain very high despite the recovery
- Crude has driven the rebound, with Saudi Arabia leading and Iran showing no seaborne crude exports in September
- JPMorgan’s estimate is more conservative, at around 89% of 2025 levels, mainly due to how dark flows are counted
- Exports of diesel, gasoline and jet fuel remain at roughly half of normal levels
- Goldman still expects Brent to ease to $85 by year-end and $80 in 2027
Oil exports from the Persian Gulf have returned to roughly normal levels, but physical crude prices have yet to follow, according to Goldman Sachs. The bank estimates that Gulf exports, including so-called dark exports, have recovered to 22 to 23 million barrels per day over the past two weeks, broadly in line with their 2025 average, while physical Dated Brent remains very high.
Dark exports are cargoes carried by tankers that switch off their satellite transponders, making them hard to track. Goldman estimated these flows at around 5 million barrels per day in September, a large part of why its count is higher than others. JPMorgan, using a more conservative approach, put recent Gulf exports at about 89% of 2025 levels, with most of the difference coming down to how much of the dark fleet is included.
The recovery has been led by crude rather than refined products. In late September, Goldman said crude exports had climbed above their 2025 average, with Saudi shipments more than doubling during the month to nearly 12 million barrels per day and the UAE also exporting above normal. Satellite data showed no seaborne crude exports from Iran. Products are lagging badly: exports of diesel, gasoline and jet fuel remain around half of normal, which Goldman attributes to elevated regional refinery outages and the greater risk faced by smaller product tankers carrying more flammable cargo.
Physical prices tell a different story to the flow data. Dated Brent, the price for North Sea cargoes loading on specific dates, was recently near $120 a barrel, well above futures. Goldman links the gap to fears that escalation could damage long-term production and to record-low global stocks outside OECD commercial inventories, which have prompted buyers to rebuild supplies quickly. The bank estimates the risk premium in Brent spreads averaged $22 a barrel in September, the second-highest monthly level on record and above the peak during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war.
Goldman maintains its base case that Brent eases to $85 by year-end and $80 in 2027, while warning that renewed escalation could push prices sharply higher. The weekend’s Houthi claims of strikes on Saudi Aramco facilities put that risk directly against the barrels that have driven the recovery.
Dated Brent is the spot price for physical North Sea cargoes loading on specific dates, as opposed to the front-month futures contract; in early April the spot premium over futures exceeded $25 a barrel. Normally that spread is narrow.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.