The estimates point to a market still meaningfully undersupplied relative to pre-war norms, even as flows continue to recover from their March trough. The suggestion that Hormuz transits are approaching the upper end of official US estimates indicates producers and shippers have found workable adaptations to the ongoing disruption, potentially limiting further near-term price upside from supply scarcity alone. Goldman’s continued preference for price upside in European gas and longer-dated oil products over crude itself signals a view that structural bottlenecks in refined and gas markets may prove more persistent than the crude supply gap, a distinction traders may want to reflect in how they position across the complex rather than treating oil-linked risk as uniform.
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Earlier:
- Iran says it is preparing list of conditions for reopening Strait of Hormuz
- Oil catch up post: Snaps losing streak as Trump rules out reviving Iran ceasefire terms
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Gulf oil exports are recovering, but Goldman’s numbers show the market remains far short of where it stood before the war began.
Summary:
- Goldman Sachs estimated total Gulf oil exports at roughly 15 million to 16 million barrels per day as of Thursday, based on two independent methods.
- That figure is 7 million to 8 million bpd below pre-war levels but 5 million to 6 million bpd above the trough reached in March.
- Goldman said the upward revision suggests Strait of Hormuz transits are likely close to US officials’ estimate of 8 million to 10 million bpd.
- The Strait of Hormuz carried around one-fifth of global daily seaborne oil and LNG supply before the US-Israeli war on Iran began in late February.
- Goldman attributed part of the recovery to a rise in dark crossings by specialised shippers and increased ship-to-ship transfers, calling it evidence that producers and shippers are adapting to the conflict.
- The bank continues to see greater price upside in European natural gas and longer-dated oil product contracts than in crude itself under scenarios of persistent disruption.
- Brent crude settled up 2.1% on Thursday, snapping a three-session losing streak, after a Wall Street Journal report said Trump was not interested in reviving the June memorandum of understanding with Iran.
Goldman Sachs estimated on Thursday that total Gulf oil exports have recovered to roughly 15 million to 16 million barrels per day, according to a research note reported by Reuters, marking a meaningful rebound from the depths of the conflict even as flows remain well short of pre-war norms. The bank’s estimates, derived using two independent methodologies, place current exports 7 million to 8 million bpd below levels seen before the US-Israeli war on Iran began, but 5 million to 6 million bpd above the trough reached in March.
While Goldman’s headline figures focus on total Gulf flows rather than Strait of Hormuz transits specifically, the bank said the upward revisions imply that traffic through the strait itself is likely tracking close to the range of 8 million to 10 million barrels per day previously estimated by US officials. That would represent a significant, if partial, recovery for a waterway that carried around one-fifth of the world’s daily seaborne oil and liquefied natural gas supply before the conflict disrupted normal shipping patterns beginning in late February.
Goldman attributed part of the improvement to adaptive behaviour among producers and shippers navigating the ongoing disruption. The note pointed specifically to a rise in dark crossings, transits conducted by specialised shippers operating with reduced transponder visibility, and an increase in ship-to-ship transfers, both of which the bank said demonstrate how market participants have adjusted their logistics to keep barrels moving despite the elevated risk environment in the Gulf.
Looking beyond the immediate supply recovery, Goldman said it continues to see greater scope for price upside in European natural gas and in longer-dated oil product contracts than in crude prices themselves, under scenarios where disruptions to Middle East supply persist. That view suggests the bank sees the more durable strain from the conflict concentrated in downstream and adjacent energy markets, rather than in the price of crude oil itself, which has benefited from the kind of adaptive shipping behaviour highlighted in the note.
The estimates were published the same day Brent crude settled up 2.1%, snapping a three-session losing streak, after a Wall Street Journal report indicated President Donald Trump was not interested in reviving the terms of the memorandum of understanding reached with Iran in June. Taken together, the improving Gulf export figures and the market’s reaction to diminished prospects for a near-term diplomatic resolution illustrate the ongoing tension shaping oil markets: gradual, adaptive supply recovery on one hand, set against a political and military backdrop that remains far from settled on the other.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.