Confirmation that a meaningful volume of oil is again moving through the Strait of Hormuz should ease some of the risk premium built into crude prices since the conflict began, even though the reported 10 million barrels a day remains roughly half pre-war throughput. The scale of the US military presence, including fighter jet cover against drone and cruise missile attacks, signals Washington’s commitment to keeping the corridor open, which may reassure shippers and insurers weighing whether to resume Gulf transits. Prices are likely to stay sensitive to headline risk around individual attacks even as the broader supply picture improves, given Iran’s diminished but not eliminated ability to strike vessels. Any sign of the southern channel being disrupted or the task force’s control slipping would quickly reverse the recent easing in geopolitical risk pricing.
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A covert US military operation has restored roughly half of pre-war oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, even as the wider conflict with Iran remains stalemated.
Summary:
- US officials tell Axios the military has run a shipping corridor through Hormuz’s southern channel, off the Omani coast, for several weeks
- Between 15 and 20 tankers transit the strait nightly, with daily exports now close to 10 million barrels, about half pre-war volume
- On some nights, 15 to 20 million barrels have moved out of the Gulf, with one recent night seeing over 20 ships and roughly 15 million barrels
- The operation includes escorting loaded outbound tankers and guiding empty tankers into the Gulf to collect oil before exiting
- A task force run out of Fort Bragg coordinates nightly convoy scheduling with regional Gulf partners
- A prior two-week US Central Command campaign degraded Iran’s radar and maritime surveillance, leaving Tehran largely unable to track shipping in the channel
- US Air Force jets have intercepted Iranian drones and cruise missiles targeting tankers, including eight drones and two cruise missiles shot down in a single recent incident
The US military has quietly established a shipping corridor through the Strait of Hormuz to keep oil exports flowing even as the broader conflict with Iran remains at a stalemate, according to Axios, which cited two US officials with knowledge of the operation.
The corridor runs through a southern channel along the coast of Oman and has been operating for several weeks. Each night, 15 to 20 tankers move in and out of the strait in coordinated inbound and outbound convoys, guided by US military direction. Daily oil exports moving through the channel are now close to 10 million barrels, roughly half of pre-war volumes, though officials say the total has climbed as high as 15 to 20 million barrels on some nights. One official described the current state of control bluntly, saying Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps “can be a nuisance” but does not control the strait.
The operation extends beyond escorting laden outbound tankers. US forces are also guiding empty tankers into the Gulf from the Arabian Sea, allowing them to load oil from regional producers before making the return transit out through the southern channel. A task force based at Fort Bragg in North Carolina oversees the nightly scheduling, coordinating with Gulf partners to compile lists of both outbound and inbound vessels ahead of each transit window.
The corridor’s viability owes much to a two-week US Central Command campaign that degraded Iran’s radar and maritime surveillance capability, leaving Tehran with only limited means of tracking shipping in the area. Officials say Iran now relies on a handful of reconstituted radars and small patrol boats to spot vessels, forcing its forces to fire drones and cruise missiles in the general direction of suspected shipping lanes rather than at confirmed targets. US Air Force jets have intercepted a substantial share of these attacks, including eight drones and two cruise missiles shot down in one recent incident, though officials acknowledge some vessels have still been struck.
President Trump, addressing the operation directly, told Axios that Iran is currently a diminished force and that negotiations with Tehran are not underway. The disclosure offers one of the clearest pictures yet of how Washington has worked to insulate global energy markets from the conflict’s disruption, even as a broader resolution remains elusive.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.