- JOLTs Job openings 7.523M vs 7.100M estimate
- US September factory orders +1.8% vs +1.2% expected
- Trump on Israel: The aid gets cut off at year-end
- Never tell me the odds: Prediction markets see Democrats taking control of House and Senate
- BOC’s Macklem: There could be a need to raise the policy rate further
- ECB’s Nagel says a December rate hike is very likely to be necessary
- Two reasons why the US could attack Iran as soon as tomorrow
- If you squint, the odds are improving slightly for Republican Senate control
Markets:
- Gold down $19 to $3928
- US 10-year yields up 7.2 bps to 4.97%
- S&P 500 up 0.4%
- USD leads, JPY lags
- WTI crude oil up 48-cents to $96.93
The session started with a report about the US and Iran closing in on an agreement and that sent oil prices plunging. It was followed hours later by a denial on twitter from a top Iranian official and we saw WTI climb form a low of $93.59 to $96.91. With that, we also saw some USD strength build, particularly in USD/JPY. AUD/USD was also under some pressure after the RBA decision to hike rates for a fifth time this year.
The JOLTS report was USD positive and the factory orders numbers were also a slight positive but that didn’t appear in the kneejerk market reaction. I’d imagine we will get back to data-watching later in the week once the midterm dust settles and with non-farm payrolls on tap.
US tech stocks found some bids and there was also a slice of good news after hours as AMD shares rallied. It was a small 0.8% bounce in the Nasdaq after three days of selling, including an ugly reversal yesterday. Apple finished down 1.9% after earnings.
US election results will begin rolling in around 7 pm ET but it will be a tricky election to watch given some region issues like tariffs and odd candidates in various Senate races so the early numbers might not tell the national story. It should be an interesting night but note that post-midterms, stocks are generally strong and November is seasonall very strong.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.