- Deutsche Bank: The dollar is now leveraged to the AI race
- Vance: We’re not talking to Iran unless they stop shooting at ships
- Preview: August non-farm payrolls by the numbers
- ISM non manufacturing PMI for August 55.4 versus 54.2 estimate. Stronger than expectations
- Feds Waller: Finally seeing some signs of disinflation in recent data. How are the markets reacting?
- US trade deficit widens sharply in July as AI-related imports surge
- US Initial Jobless claims 206K vs 205K estimate
- BOE Pill: Sees the need to raise the bank rate to 4.00%. GBPUSD moves higher on the news.
Markets:
- Gold up $86 to $4472
- US 10-year yields down 2 bps to 4.77%
- WTI crude oil up $0.66 to $91.87
- S&P 500 up 1.05%
- JPY leads, USD lags
Thursday was all about Waller as the influential Fed Governor indicated that he wasn’t ready to hike rates yet and would need to see CPI data before making a decision. The market is taking that as a signal of where the core of the FOMC stands and it’s dropped the odds of a Sept hike to 50/50.
Waller downplayed the employment report but said a surprise could influence his view. Mostly, he’s focused on what upcoming inflation data looks like and that ensures that this month’s CPI data will be a major market event.
The other surprise was a jump in the yen, with intervention obviously eyed. It was a steady slide lower in USD/JPY from early in the day and took it from 159.00 to as low as 155.30, where some buyers have bid it up 50 pips. This is an interesting one to keep an eye on as we haven’t gotten the usual intervention confirmation and it wasn’t exactly in a straight line.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.