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- Oil has opened for the week’s futures trade on Globex, up around 2% after a tense weekend
- There are reports that Iran missiles have hit a tanker off Oman in Hormuz southern corridor
- Gold hits seven week high as weak US jobs data cuts rate hike odds. What’s next?
- Iran vows Hormuz stays shut until US meets demands as Houthis widen Red Sea blockade
- Trump: “we are low keying it” as Strait of Hormuz deal drifts
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Summary:
- Oil gapped higher Sunday evening as Hormuz shipping stayed at a trickle and Iran hardened its reopening conditions
- Iran’s new demands largely repackage old terms, sanctions relief, an end to the naval blockade, and a halt to military action amounting to a ceasefire and a return to the June MoU
- UAE reported an Iranian missile strike on an ADNOC-linked vessel in the strait, no casualties reported
- Houthis struck a Saudi Aramco refinery in Jazan by drone, in retaliation for Saudi drones breaching Yemeni airspace, opening a genuine second front alongside Hormuz
- Netanyahu rejected the US-backed 15-point Gaza plan even as Israel holds off on major Gaza operations
- Trump is choosing economic squeeze over renewed strikes, a low-risk option that likely won’t work but removes any near-term chance of a Hormuz deal
- BOJ opinions from July flagged rising inflation overshoot risk, with one member floating a faster than expected hike pace, boosting the case for a September move
- Yen softened slightly, other majors held tight ranges, and local stocks firmed on the back of Friday’s soft US jobs report easing near-term Fed hike bets
Oil prices opened with a gap higher on Sunday evening Globex trade as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remained at a trickle and Iran appeared to harden its stance on the waterway’s reopening.
Iran issued bold new, though largely recycled, conditions for reopening the strait, including comprehensive sanctions relief, an end to the naval blockade, and a halt to military action, effectively a ceasefire and a return to the June memorandum of understanding. Oman-Iran talks continued in parallel. The UAE reported an Iranian missile strike on an ADNOC-linked vessel in the strait, with no casualties reported. Related tensions persisted, with Houthi activity, including reported attacks that warrant close watching, and Israeli operations touching Lebanon, Hezbollah and Gaza. Israeli PM Netanyahu rejected the US-backed 15-point Gaza plan focused on Hamas disarmament alongside an Israeli withdrawal.
Trump told Axios he is letting economic pressure squeeze Iran rather than resuming strikes, citing inflation and a depleted treasury. Of Trump’s options, this may be the least harmful in an impossible situation, no return to major combat, keeping the economic squeeze on and forcing the regime to deal with a deteriorating economy. It probably won’t work, but it makes a virtue out of necessity. No deal on the strait looks possible for now.
The second front continued to escalate. Yemen’s Houthis said they struck a Saudi Aramco refinery in Jazan with a drone, with the group’s spokesperson Yahya Saree saying on X that the attack was in response to Saudi drones breaching the airspace of Yemen’s Sa’dah and Hajjah.
The Bank of Japan flagged rising upside inflation risks, with one member pointing to a possible acceleration in the pace of rate hikes in a summary of opinions from its July meeting. Several members called for a nimbler, faster than expected pace of hikes, strengthening the case for a September move.
The yen lost some ground, though the broader major FX pairs traded in small ranges. Local stocks firmed after Friday’s soft jobs report eased expectations of a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike.
Asian equities also caught a bid, with Korean chip heavyweights driving the Kospi to a roughly 0.8 percent gain, snapping seven straight weeks of declines, while the Kosdaq surged more than 5 percent and tripped a buy-side circuit breaker as short positioning unwound sharply. Japan’s Nikkei rose around 2 percent on the same AI and chip led momentum out of Wall Street, though gains there were capped by the same Middle East uncertainty running through the rest of this wrap, underscoring how oil and geopolitical risk remain a persistent overhang on Japanese shares even on an otherwise strong day for the region.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.