Treasury yields moved sharply higher on Thursday, with the two-year note rising more than 7 basis points and the benchmark 10-year yield climbing nearly 6 basis points to 4.67%. The move was fueled by another round of solid U.S. economic data, including better-than-expected initial jobless claims that reinforced the view the labor market remains resilient. Strong productivity data also pointed to an economy that continues to generate healthy output. While stronger productivity can help ease inflation over time, traders focused on the fact that the economy remains firm enough for the Federal Reserve to remain patient on rate cuts, while tilting toward a hike.
Tomorrow at 8:30 AM ET, the U.S. Labor Department will release the July employment report, one of the most closely watched pieces of economic data each month. The report is expected to show the labor market remains resilient. Economists are forecasting payroll growth to rebound modestly after June’s disappointing gain, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain steady.
- Nonfarm Payrolls:+83,000 (prior +57,000)
- Unemployment Rate:4.2% (unchanged)
- Average Hourly Earnings (m/m):+0.3%
- Average Hourly Earnings (y/y):+3.5%
A stronger-than-expected report would likely reinforce today’s move higher in Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar, while potentially weighing on equities as investors push back expectations for Fed easing. Conversely, weaker hiring or softer wage growth could trigger a pullback in yields, pressure the dollar, and provide relief for stocks.
The expectations for a rate hike in September is around 56%.
Adding to the upward pressure on yields was a sharp rebound in crude oil prices. WTI crude settled up 3.60% to $77.93 after reports that Iran is considering restrictng U.S. and Israeli vessels from transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The development revived concerns over global energy supplies and the potential for higher oil prices to slow progress on inflation.
The combination of higher Treasury yields and renewed geopolitical uncertainty helped lift the U.S. dollar broadly. The dollar gained 0.45% against the Japanese yen, 0.68% versus the Swiss franc, and 0.05% against the Canadian dollar (the USDs lowest gain). The greenback rose 0.27% vs the EUR, and 0.40% vs the AUD, and 0.32% vs the NZD. Rising U.S. yields widened interest-rate differentials, while safe-haven demand added another tailwind for the greenback.
Stocks struggled under the weight of higher borrowing costs and renewed geopolitical concerns. The Dow Jones Industrial Average led the decline, falling 464.05 points (-0.85%), pressured by weakness in industrial and economically sensitive names. The S&P 500 slipped 13.61 points (-0.18%), while the Nasdaq Composite proved relatively resilient, ending down just 15.09 points (-0.06%) as strength in select technology shares helped limit losses.
Elsewhere, precious metals failed to benefit from the geopolitical backdrop as higher real yields weighed on the sector. Gold fell -0.27% or $-11, and silver declined 0.87%, while Bitcoin eased 0.30% to close near $64,400.
With today’s solid labor data reinforcing economic resilience and higher oil prices adding a fresh inflation risk, Friday’s U.S. employment report now takes center stage. A stronger-than-expected payroll gain could further support Treasury yields and the dollar, while a softer report may provide some relief to both bonds and equities after today’s yield-driven sellof
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.