- Nikkei gives up early gains as Nasdaq futures slip before Micron earnings
- Treasury’s $202 billion settlement is routine, not a Bitcoin trigger
- Goldman: US diesel export ban would cut US prices about 4%, lift European cost (d’uh)
- China industrial profits rise 4.2% in August, weakest monthly gain this year
- China and U.S. to set up Trade Council and extend trade truce to January 2027
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.7399 (vs. estimate at 6.7085)
- Gold breaks key support, slides below $4,230 as danger zone gives way
- Japan services producer prices rise 3.7% in August, fastest pace in over two years
- OpenAI agents used aggressive techniques (“borderline hacking”) to reach U.N. data site, report find
- BOJ minutes show dissent for faster hikes as price risks skew higher
- SNB’s Schlegel says Switzerland in comfortable spot on inflation
- Anthropic CEO Amodei to attend White House dinner with Trump amid AI tensions
- Gold slips as oil holds gains on Hormuz standoff and inflation risk
- Tether’s $84 million question: whose money did the US actually seize?
- BOJ July minutes preview: a hold overtaken by September’s rate hike
- Oil prices have jumped higher at the opening on Globex for the new week
- Waltz calls Iran’s Hormuz proposal a cynical bid for upfront concessions
- Bessent urges Fed to keep an open mind on rates, citing AI productivity
- Riyadh schools shift to remote learning as Houthis claim downed drone
- Apollo’s Slok warns AI agents could trigger a bank run (“agentic bank run” is still a run …)
- US bank failures in 2026, 6 now. California seizes Nano Banc.
- China may let Alibaba, ByteDance buy new Nvidia chips, The Information reports
- Monday open indicative forex prices, September 28, 2026
- Iran holds line on diplomacy as Hormuz missile strike raises risk before open
Summary:
- Oil rose at the open after President Trump rejected Iran’s seven-day proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, though he expects talks to resume this week.
- Iran’s Fars News reported a cruise missile was fired at a vessel in the Strait, and Houthi attacks targeted Riyadh, with landings disrupted at King Khalid International Airport after explosions were heard.
- Trump said he is looking “very seriously” at a US diesel export ban, and Goldman Sachs analysts said a ban would cut US diesel prices about 4% and lift European prices about 2%. Goldman does not treat it as its base case.
- Gold fell hard and broke hourly support near $4,250 as yields rose and Fed rate-hike bets firmed. Silver fell as much as 3%.
- Japan’s services producer prices rose 3.7% in August. The BOJ’s July minutes showed one dissent in favour of a hike, and a former BOJ official said an October hike is possible.
- China’s industrial profits rose 4.2% in August, the weakest pace this year, and Shanghai fell 1.8%. China and the US agreed to a Trade Council and to extend their truce to January 2027.
- Major FX was range-bound, with NZD the outperformer.
Oil prices rose at the open on Monday after US President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s seven-day proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, although he said he expects talks to resume this week. Tehran has maintained that only diplomacy can end the standoff. Iran’s Fars News reported that a cruise missile was fired at a vessel in the Strait, adding to risk going into the open. Separately, reports said Yemen’s Houthis targeted Riyadh and that flight landings were disrupted at King Khalid International Airport after explosions were heard in Saudi Arabia.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi responded to Trump’s UN speech, in which the US president threatened to annihilate Iran. He said Iran is fully prepared for the war to resume and will stand firm against any new aggression, but also stands ready for diplomacy. He said Iran has corrected its tactics after two previous wars and that the Revolutionary Guards would launch immediate counterattacks if the US strikes.
On fuel, Trump told a Fox News reporter on Sunday that he is looking very seriously at a ban on US diesel exports to combat high prices, while acknowledging it could lift gasoline prices. Others in his administration are focused on different options. Several farm-state lawmakers have urged limits on exports during the fall harvest as Hormuz disruption and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries strain global fuel markets. US diesel exports reached a weekly record close to 2 million barrels a day last month. Goldman Sachs analysts said in a September 26 report that a ban would initially cut US diesel prices by about 4% and lift European wholesale prices by about 2%. They called a ban plausible but not their base case.
Gold fell 6%+, breaking a well-tested hourly support shelf near $4,250 to hit a low under$4,200. The move extends a downtrend from mid-September highs above $4,430. Traders attributed the drop to higher yields and hawkish bets on the Federal Reserve, and it coincided with a broad fall in metals, led by silver. Bloomberg reported that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent wants Fed policymakers to keep an open mind on rates, arguing that AI and deregulation gains will contain inflation even as Iran-linked fuel prices weigh on voters ahead of the midterms.
In Japan, services producer prices rose 3.7% from a year earlier in August, with the high-labour-cost component at 2.8%. Some observers read that as evidence of persistent underlying inflation that supports further BOJ rate increases. Minutes of the BOJ’s July 30 and 31 meeting showed the board held its rate near 1.0% by an 8 to 1 vote, with Takata Hajime dissenting in favour of a hike to around 1.25% as risks to prices skew to the upside. Former BOJ official Momma said the central bank could raise rates again in October. Swiss National Bank President Martin Schlegel told broadcaster SRF that the SNB is in a comfortable position, with inflation tracking the middle of its 0 to 2% target range, even as the Fed and ECB keep tightening.
The Nikkei 225 traded flat after swinging between gains and losses, with early gains erased amid higher yields and the services PPI data. Reuters cited a portfolio manager as saying weakness in Nasdaq futures also weighed, and that he expects the US semiconductor index to stay in a wide range in the months ahead, with technology and bank shares the main supports for Japanese stocks. KOSPI fell 2.3% on its return from a four-day closure, with heavy selling in large tech names. In China, the Hang Seng rose 0.5% while the Shanghai Composite fell 1.8% at the start of a holiday-shortened week, after industrial profits rose 4.2% in August, the weakest pace this year. Profits for January to August rose 15.7%, easing from 17.6% in January to July. PBoC liquidity efforts and the US-China trade news did not lift risk appetite. China’s Commerce Ministry said the two sides agreed to set up a Trade Council, extend their trade truce to January 2027 and first discuss a reciprocal tariff-reduction framework.
Other headlines included a report from The Information that China may let Alibaba and ByteDance buy Nvidia’s RTX Pro 5500 chip, with Beijing said to favour approval. Reuters could not verify the report, and Nvidia cited export limits on both sides as the hold-up. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei was slated to attend a private White House dinner with Trump, a possible thaw after months of tension over Pentagon contract curbs and a court loss over the blacklist, as Congress weighs AI guardrails. In FX, major pairs traded in a range, with NZD the outperformer. US equity futures were lower, with Nasdaq futures leading the decline as oil and yields rose.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.