- RBNZ’s Breman: more hikes likely at coming meetings, possibly into restrictive territory
- US warns Gulf allies of possible short, intense Iran campaign after midterms: WSJ
- Oil edges higher after Houthis claim missile strike on Saudi Arabia’s biggest refinery
- RBA’s Bullock: Inflation is far too high
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.7165 (vs. estimate at 6.6734)
- AUD/NZD in focus as hawkish RBA signals clash with RBNZ’s surprise 4-3 hold
- RBNZ holds OCR at 2.75% in surprise 4-3 vote, says tighter policy still likely
- Australia trimmed mean CPI rises to 3.7%, above forecasts, as RBA hike case firms
- RBA’s Bullock: oil shock means inflation above August forecasts, Board meets next week
- HBM explained: the AI memory behind SK Hynix’s record profits and rising chip prices
- SK Hynix Q3 operating profit beats at 83tn won, unveils 100tn won shareholder payout plan
- Australia CPI explained: why 2 inflation readings land today and which one the RBA watches
- BlackRock sees one more Fed hike this year, calls market pricing for more too hawkish
- MUFG sees RBNZ hiking to 3% today but under-delivering on pricing, flags NZD downside
- All 5 major NZ banks expect RBNZ to hike to 3% today, but split on how far rates will go
- Bessent says SEC and CFTC can fill the Clarity Act gap, but agency rules come with an expiry risk
- UBS sees Brent near $110 by year-end, lifts 2027 forecasts on freight and supply risks
- HSBC shares slide almost 7% as revenue misses and wealth stalls despite 32% profit jump
- Standard Chartered: Gold must hold $3,886 or risk deeper correction as oil fuels hike bets
- Goldman: Markets selling US banks on higher rates, but income guidance rises into 2027
- ICYMI: S&P sees global bond issuance growth slowing to 2.7% in 2027, weakest in five years
- Oil: Private survey of inventory shows a headline crude oil draw vs build expected
- Nasdaq rallies as AI and chip stocks outperform
- ICYMI: Fitch sees Fed hiking to 4.25% in December, says US credit outlook still benign
- investingLive Americas market news wrap: Tech stocks rally
Summary:
- RBA Governor Bullock said inflation is far too high and likely to exceed the August forecasts. Q3 trimmed mean CPI rose to 3.7% y/y, above forecasts, strengthening the case for a November 3 hike.
- The RBNZ held the OCR at 2.75% in a 4-3 vote, surprising markets, but Governor Breman later said further hikes are likely at coming meetings.
- The NZ dollar fell sharply and the Australian dollar rose, sending AUD/NZD strongly higher.
- Oil rose, with Brent around $115, on a Houthi claim of a strike on Saudi Arabia’s biggest refinery and a WSJ report that the US warned Gulf states of a possible post-midterms campaign against Iran.
- Israeli exit polls pointed to no clear election result.
- The Kospi surged 6% after SK Hynix posted a roughly sevenfold jump in Q3 operating profit and unveiled about $75 billion in shareholder returns. The Nikkei rose 1.4%.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent said crypto rules can advance through agency action despite the Senate’s failure to pass the Clarity Act.
Australia: Bullock and CPI build the case for a November hike
Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock struck a hawkish tone at Senate Estimates, saying inflation is likely to run above the RBA’s August forecasts as the re-escalating Middle East conflict lifts energy prices and the labour market looks a little tighter than previously judged. After the data, she said inflation is far too high, that it is difficult to completely look through supply shocks and that domestic demand still exceeds supply, though she declined to give guidance on next week’s decision.
The September quarter CPI backed her concerns. The trimmed mean, the RBA’s main gauge of underlying inflation, rose 1.0% in the quarter and 3.7% year on year, above the 3.6% expected, while monthly headline inflation climbed to 4.3% in September. Together, the data and Bullock’s comments strengthen the case for a rate hike when the Board concludes its meeting on November 3.
New Zealand: a surprise hold, then hawkish guidance
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand held its official cash rate at 2.75% in a 4-3 vote, defying around 90% market pricing for a hike and forecasts from all five major local banks. The majority, including Governor Anna Breman, cited lower-than-expected headline inflation of 3.7%, smaller pass-through from fuel and subdued wages, though all members agreed tighter policy is likely to be needed. At her press conference, Breman said further rate increases are likely at coming meetings and could extend into restrictive territory, and that a persistently weak New Zealand dollar could add to imported inflation.
FX: AUD/NZD jumps on policy divergence
The New Zealand dollar fell sharply after the RBNZ decision, while the Australian dollar gained on the hotter CPI and Bullock’s comments. The diverging signals from the two central banks drove a strong rise in AUD/NZD.
Oil and geopolitics: supply risks return
Oil prices rose, with Brent around $115 a barrel, after Yemen’s Houthis said they had struck Saudi Arabia’s largest refinery, a claim Saudi authorities did not immediately confirm. Geopolitical risk was reinforced by a Wall Street Journal report that the US has told several Gulf Arab states to prepare for a possible short, intense military campaign against Iran after the November 3 midterm elections, with President Donald Trump leaning toward a large strike but yet to decide. Market chatter also centred on the possibility of renewed Israeli strikes on Iran, although Israel’s defence minister has said there was no intention to attack before the election. Exit polls from Tuesday’s Israeli election pointed to no clear result, with official results due on November 4.
Equities: Kospi soars as SK Hynix delivers
Asia-Pacific stocks followed Wall Street higher, where the Nasdaq outperformed. South Korea led the region, with the Kospi surging 6% and the Kosdaq up 3%, after SK Hynix reported a roughly sevenfold jump in third-quarter operating profit to around 83 trillion won, ahead of forecasts, as memory chip prices surged on AI demand. The chipmaker unveiled shareholder returns of about 100 trillion won, around $75 billion, for 2026, including more than 60 trillion won of share buybacks and cancellations and more than 30 trillion won in dividends, alongside a quarterly dividend of 20,000 won per share. Net profit missed forecasts, and the company said it expects DRAM demand to grow by a mid-20% rate in 2027. Elsewhere, Japan’s Nikkei rose 1.4%, China’s Shanghai Composite gained 0.5% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 0.2%.
Crypto policy: Bessent eyes agency route
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Washington can still deliver crypto regulation without new legislation. Speaking at Ripple’s Swell conference, he described the Senate’s failure to pass the Clarity Act as disappointing, but said Treasury would use its convening power to advance a regulatory framework through agency action with the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.