- Warsh won’t prejudge rest of 2026, names October and December as decision points
- Tesla unveils thruster-powered Roadster with $50,000 deposit, production slated for 2028
- Bailey says UK second-round inflation effects subdued so far, too early to judge
- Ethereum whale’s $13.45M loss reflects a year-long exit, not a fresh ETH dump
- Google’s 40-fold quantum leap: big for Willow, smaller for Alphabet’s share price
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.7220 (vs. estimate at 6.6947)
- FX option expiries for 16 October 10am New York cut
- Goldman: Warsh’s quieter Fed: why less guidance could mean more market volatility
- Trump draws two red lines on Iran but keeps Pickaxe Mountain strike in play
- India curbs gold ETF buying before Diwali, removing a seasonal prop for gold demand
- Nike’s problem is demand, not tariffs: what Moody’s warning really signals
- Two AI signals, one week: TSMC’s boom and Dell’s doubts show where demand really is
- ICYMI: Dell shares slide 17% in two days as Barclays questions enterprise AI demand
- ICYMI: TSMC profit jumps nearly 70% on AI demand, but margin outlook weighs on shares
- Moody’s cuts Nike outlook to negative, sees earnings falling into fiscal 2028
- New Zealand card spending falls for second month as food prices hold flat in September
- Fed’s Hammack questions whether Fed policy is tight enough as inflation risks build
- New Zealand manufacturing PMI jumps to 56.5, 15th straight month of expansion
Summary:
- Trump told Newsmax he would not use nuclear weapons on Iran or send ground troops, but said the US may have to strike Pickaxe Mountain
- There were unconfirmed reports of possible anti-ship missile and drone launches towards UAE port anchorages near the Strait of Hormuz
- Oil edged slightly lower, gold rose around $25 and the US dollar eased ahead of Warsh
- Fed Chair Warsh declined to prejudge meetings for the rest of 2026, calling October and December the key decision points
- The Fed’s Hammack warned an inflationary mindset could force more aggressive action, while the BoE’s Bailey said second-round effects are subdued so far
- Moody’s turned Nike’s outlook negative, Tesla unveiled its Roadster for 2028 production, and Singapore’s non-oil exports jumped about 68%
Geopolitics and oil
US President Donald Trump told Newsmax that he would not use nuclear weapons against Iran and did not expect US ground troops to be sent into the country. He said, however, that the US may have to strike Pickaxe Mountain, an underground site near Natanz linked to Iran’s nuclear programme. The comments largely restated earlier positions, and Trump said last week that the US would not attack Iran before next month’s midterm elections.
Separately, there were unconfirmed reports of possible launches of anti-ship ballistic missiles, anti-ship cruise missiles and drones towards port anchorages at Sharjah, Ras Al Khaimah or Jebel Ali in the United Arab Emirates, or nearby areas of the Strait of Hormuz. The reports had not been verified at the time of writing.
Oil prices edged only slightly lower over the session.
FX and gold
Gold traded around $25 higher. Several large Indian mutual funds, including Kotak, UTI and HDFC, halted bulk gold ETF subscriptions ahead of the festive season, reportedly after a nudge from SEBI, removing a seasonal support for gold as India seeks to shield the rupee.
The US dollar eased slightly ahead of remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh.
Central banks
Warsh declined to signal the Fed’s next move, saying he does not believe in saying what he might do at meetings for the rest of 2026. Speaking at an IMF session in Bangkok, he said the world has broadly conformed to the Fed’s expectations since its September rate hike. He described the October and December meetings as the crystallising moments for judging output, employment and inflation. He also said AI is likely to boost demand before it delivers supply-side gains.
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack warned that if an inflationary mindset takes hold among households and businesses, the Fed may need to act more aggressively. She said businesses are facing significant input cost pressures and that financial conditions do not currently appear restrictive.
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said second-round effects from high energy prices have been subdued so far, but that it is too early to form a firm view. He described above-target UK inflation as enormously frustrating and said Middle East news is the biggest factor moving UK government bond yields. Markets have been pricing a high chance of a Bank of England rate rise on 5 November.
Companies
Moody’s changed its outlook on Nike to negative and affirmed its A2 rating, citing a turnaround taking longer than it had expected. The agency expects Nike’s revenue and earnings to decline through the fiscal year ending May 2027 and into fiscal 2028.
Tesla unveiled its long-delayed next-generation Roadster, which uses thrusters developed with SpaceX to flip and land in mid-air. Reservations require $50,000 upfront, the price has not been confirmed, and production is due to start in 2028, years after deliveries were first promised for 2020.
Asia data
Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports rose about 68% in September from a year earlier, well above the roughly 32% expected in a Reuters poll and a sixth straight month of growth above 20%. The gain was driven mainly by non-electronics, chiefly ship and boat structures, though electronics exports also surged.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.