- Oil rebound seen pressuring Asian currencies, MUFG says. Indian rupee hit hard.
- Best-performing market of 2026 hit by chip volatility, ETF unwind. Citi hits Kospi more, downgrades
- Oil gapped higher to open the new week – recap ICYMI
- Beijing moves to steady markets after brutal tech stock slide – regulator calls stability meeting, state buyers step in
- Iran says two tankers mined and blown up in Strait of Hormuz
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.7948 (vs. estimate at 6.7821)
- China holds loan prime rates steady as growth slows and yuan firms. 1-year LPR at 3.0%, 5-year at 3.5%
- Moonshot pauses Kimi K3 signups as chip stocks tumble on China AI fears
- UKMTO have received information from a verified source that a vessel is on fire, Strait of Hormuz
- Yen on intervention watch as Tokyo holiday thins liquidity, a recipe the Ministry of Finance likes!
- US launches ninth night of Iran strikes as missiles fly from Kuwait
- NZD slips despite June trade surplus as US dollar strength bites
- Goldman Sachs note hints China’s real gold accumulation may be much more than double official numbers
- ICYMI – France orders ISPs to block Polymarket after prediction market ban ignored
- US official warns Trump is planning for a wider war with Iran as military build up accelerates
- South Korea to ease won access, aims for freely convertible currency
- Monday open indicative forex prices, 20 July 2026 … World Cup edition 😉
Key points:
- US and Iran moved closer to all-out war Sunday after fresh American troop deaths, with a US official saying the Pentagon is increasing aircraft numbers in the region and planning for a wider war
- Oil futures opened the new trading week up roughly 2%, tracking the weekend escalation rather than any shift in physical fundamentals
- Air raid sirens sounded across Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait and Iraq after Iran launched a fresh wave of missiles and drones, sending oil and the US dollar higher
- US forces carried out strikes on Iran for a ninth consecutive night, with the US Army launching at least two ATACMS tactical ballistic missiles from Kuwait toward Iranian targets
- Explosions were reported in western Iranian cities including Tabriz and Khorramabad, areas that had been relatively quiet in this round of fighting
- Tasnim reported explosions near the Mahshahr and Imam Khomeini ports, with multiple loud blasts confirmed at both sites in southwest Iran
- Air defences were activated in Konarak, in Iran’s southeastern Sistan and Baluchestan province
- Tabriz, capital of East Azerbaijan province and home to one of Iran’s older missile bases, was struck for the first time since the ceasefire memorandum of understanding
- Iranian media reported Iran struck an oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz off the UAE coast with anti-ship cruise missiles, with UKMTO confirming the vessel is on fire
- CENTCOM confirmed it completed its ninth consecutive night of strikes, hitting Iranian command centres, air defence and coastal surveillance sites, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites, and communications networks
- Moonshot’s Kimi K3 paused new subscriptions after demand maxed out GPU capacity within 48 hours of launch, with existing members unaffected and membership set to split into general and coding tiers
- South Korea unveiled a road map to make the won a freely convertible currency, targeting offshore trading and settlement systems and fewer regulatory barriers
- The Monetary Authority of Singapore said its next monetary policy statement will be released on July 27
Wrap:
The United States and Iran edged closer to all-out war over the weekend, and Sunday’s session showed exactly why. The escalation began with confirmation of fresh American troop deaths and an unnamed US official’s acknowledgment that Washington is planning for a wider war, with the Pentagon said to be increasing the number of military aircraft in the region. Oil futures opened the new trading week up roughly 2% in direct response, a move that had little to do with supply or demand and everything to do with markets pricing in an extended, potentially broader campaign rather than any near-term off-ramp.
That repricing gained further momentum as the session progressed. Air raid sirens sounded across Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait and Iraq after Iran launched a fresh wave of ballistic missiles and one-way attack drones, pushing both oil and the US dollar higher as safe haven and risk premium flows built simultaneously. The US response came quickly: CENTCOM confirmed its forces were carrying out strikes on Iran for a ninth consecutive night, and the US Army launched at least two ATACMS tactical ballistic missiles from Kuwait toward Iranian targets, marking one of the more overt escalatory steps of the conflict to date.
The scope of the strikes then became apparent through a rapid sequence of reports from Iranian soil. Explosions were reported in western Iranian cities including Tabriz and Khorramabad, both of which had remained largely untouched through earlier rounds of fighting. Tasnim reported explosions near the Mahshahr and Imam Khomeini ports in the southwest, with multiple loud blasts subsequently confirmed at both sites. Further south, Iranian air defence systems were activated in Konarak, in Sistan and Baluchestan province, pointing to a wave of strikes spread across a wide geographic arc rather than concentrated on a single front. Most notably, Tabriz, the capital of East Azerbaijan province and home to one of Iran’s older missile bases, was struck for the first time since the ceasefire memorandum of understanding collapsed, a strike believed to have targeted the base directly.
The conflict’s reach into shipping deepened in parallel. Iranian media reported that Iran struck an oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz off the UAE coast with anti-ship cruise missiles, with the UK Maritime Trade Operations agency confirming the vessel is on fire. That incident lands on top of Iran’s earlier claim to have mined and destroyed two tankers attempting the strait’s southern route over the weekend, reinforcing the picture of a waterway that handles roughly a fifth of global oil trade becoming steadily more dangerous to transit. CENTCOM later confirmed it had completed its ninth consecutive night of strikes, targeting Iranian military command centres, air defence and coastal surveillance sites, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites, and communications networks, a target list that spans nearly every category of Iranian military infrastructure relevant to the ongoing exchange.
Away from the Middle East, Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 became a story in its own right, with the Chinese lab pausing new subscriptions to its model just days after launch after demand pushed against the limits of its available GPU capacity. Existing members retain full access, with new slots set to reopen in batches as compute comes online, and the company plans to split its membership structure into separate general and coding tiers to better manage load. The episode has fed into broader market unease over AI moats and infrastructure spending, contributing to volatility across chip and memory names in recent sessions.
China’s CSRC will meet market participants on Monday to discuss stability after a rout wiped 10 trillion yuan off market value, as state-backed investors bought shares to stem the slide. Shared in China firmed.
On the policy front, South Korea’s finance ministry unveiled a road map aimed at making the won a freely convertible currency, targeting the build-out of offshore trading and settlement systems and the removal of regulatory barriers that have historically restricted foreign access to the currency. While in South Korea, the Kospi was sold heavily again today.
In Singapore, the Monetary Authority confirmed its next monetary policy statement will land on July 27, giving markets a fixed date to watch amid an otherwise fluid macro backdrop dominated by the Middle East conflict. Taken together, the session underscored a market increasingly forced to price geopolitical escalation as the dominant driver, with idiosyncratic stories in AI and regional FX policy still moving markets, but very much playing second fiddle to events in the Gulf.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.