The U.S. dollar is mostly higher to start the North American trading week, with gains against six of the seven major currencies. The Australian dollar is the exception, trading modestly higher against the greenback.
U.S. stock futures are implying a lower opening, while Treasury yields are nearly unchanged. The next scheduled test comes from the U.S. services sector, with the final S&P Global services PMI at 9:45 a.m. ET followed by the more closely watched ISM services report at 10 a.m. ET.
Meanwhile, Middle East developments continue to influence the oil outlook. Improving supply is offering some relief, but threats to energy infrastructure remain a risk.
The dollar starts the week on firmer footing
From the dollar’s perspective, the morning snapshot shows:
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NZDUSD: 0.5587, with the USD higher by 0.57%.
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EURUSD: 1.1204, with the USD higher by 0.44%.
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USDCHF: 0.8311, with the USD higher by 0.30%.
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USDJPY: 158.21, with the USD higher by 0.24%.
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GBPUSD: 1.3224, with the USD higher by 0.13%.
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USDCAD: 1.4258, with the USD higher by 0.08%.
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AUDUSD: 0.6958, with the USD lower by 0.07%.
The NZD is the weakest against the dollar, followed by the EUR. The AUD is holding up best, although its gain is small.
Currency ranges heading into North American trading
The morning snapshot shows the following session ranges:
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EURUSD: 1.1162 to 1.1261 — 99 pips.
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USDJPY: 157.45 to 158.28 — 83 pips.
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GBPUSD: 1.3191 to 1.3250 — 59 pips.
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USDCHF: 0.8278 to 0.8315 — 37 pips.
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USDCAD: 1.4239 to 1.4293 — 54 pips.
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AUDUSD: 0.6933 to 0.6966 — 33 pips.
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NZDUSD: 0.5585 to 0.5620 — 35 pips.
The USDJPY is trading near its session high, while the NZDUSD is near its session low. Both reflect dollar strength into the North American session.
For traders, those extremes become reference points. A break beyond them needs follow-through to keep the move going. A break that quickly fails gives the other side an opportunity to push back.
U.S. stock futures point lower
The latest futures figures imply:
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Dow industrial average: Down 77 points.
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S&P 500: Down 6 points.
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Nasdaq: Down 66 points.
The declines are modest, leaving room for the services data to influence the opening tone.
Treasury yields are little changed
The supplied Treasury snapshot shows:
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2-year: 4.8205%, down 0.45 basis points.
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5-year: 5.0554%, up 0.04 basis points.
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10-year: 5.2771%, up 0.01 basis points.
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30-year: 5.6310%, up 0.10 basis points.
There is little directional movement across the curve this morning. The 2-year yield is modestly lower, while longer maturities are essentially unchanged.
That puts the focus on whether today’s services report changes expectations for growth, inflation and the Fed’s next decision.
Middle East: Improving supply meets continued infrastructure risks
According to InvestingLive’s overnight coverage, oil edged lower as recovering Middle East exports and a G7 stock release countered Houthi claims of attacks on Saudi Aramco sites. Those attack claims should be distinguished from confirmed damage or production losses.
Separately, OPEC+ held November production targets steady at its Sunday meeting. InvestingLive reports that its seven core members are still producing roughly 5 million barrels per day below prewar levels because of the Iran war.
For traders, actual production and exports matter more than the announced quotas. Recovering shipments can ease the supply squeeze, while damage to energy infrastructure could reverse that improvement.
The inflation connection remains important. Sustained relief in energy costs would help the inflation outlook. Another supply disruption would complicate the job for central banks.
Overnight economic data: European services remain in expansion
The supplied calendar shows a mixed set of European readings:
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Spain services PMI: 58.3 versus 57.1 expected and 57.8 previously.
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Italy services PMI: 51.7 versus 54.6 expected and 55.2 previously.
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France final services PMI: 51.2 versus 51.4 expected and preliminarily.
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Germany final services PMI: 52.9, matching expectations and the preliminary reading.
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Eurozone final services PMI: 53.0, matching expectations and the preliminary reading.
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UK final services PMI: 52.1 versus 51.7 expected and preliminarily.
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Eurozone Sentix investor confidence: 2.7 versus 4.5 expected and 5.1 previously.
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Eurozone producer prices: Up 1.9% month over month, matching expectations, versus 1.6% previously.
Spain outperformed, while Italy disappointed. Services activity remains above the 50 expansion threshold across the listed economies, but the weaker Sentix reading points to softer investor confidence.
In Japan, consumer confidence was 35.4 versus 35.3 expected and 35.5 previously.
North American calendar: ISM services is the main event
Today’s key releases are:
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9:45 a.m. ET — S&P Global final services PMI: Expected at 58.7 versus the preliminary reading of 58.7.
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10:00 a.m. ET — ISM services PMI: Expected at 55.1 versus 55.4 previously.
The ISM headline is expected to ease slightly but remain comfortably above 50. However, traders need to look beyond that headline.
Employment will help assess hiring conditions. New orders will offer a view of demand. Prices paid will indicate whether businesses are still facing significant cost pressures.
A stronger headline accompanied by firm employment and elevated prices would carry a different message from growth driven by activity while hiring and price pressures soften. Read the details, then watch whether yields and the dollar confirm the initial reaction.
The technical focus
In the morning video above, I take a look at the three major currency pairs—EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD—from a technical perspective. For each pair, I outline the bias, the risk-defining levels and the targets that would give either the buyers or sellers more control.
The morning ranges provide an initial roadmap:
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EURUSD: Trading at 1.1204 within a 1.1162–1.1261 range. The price has recovered from the low but remains lower on the day. The session extremes define the boundaries to watch.
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USDJPY: Trading at 158.21, close to the 158.28 session high. Buyers have the stronger hand in the morning snapshot. Getting above—and staying above—the high would extend that strength.
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GBPUSD: Trading at 1.3224 within a 1.3191–1.3250 range. The pair is modestly lower but away from its low, giving traders less directional conviction than the USDJPY snapshot.
A session high or low is a reference point, not a complete trading setup. The moving averages, swing areas and retracement levels help define where traders can lean with risk defined and limited. The news can provide the shove. The price action tells us whether buyers or sellers can keep control.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.