In the morning Kickstart video above, I take a look at the three major currency pairs—EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD—from a technical perspective. For each pair, I outline the bias, the risk-defining levels and the targets that would give either the buyers or sellers more control. With all three trading within 0.15% of unchanged, the focus is on what would trigger the next shove.
The bigger moves to start the North American session are in oil, bonds and stocks. Crude oil is sharply higher, Treasury yields are moving higher, and U.S. stock futures point to another lower opening.
The moves come as reports suggest President Trump is weighing renewed strikes on Iran, potentially ahead of the November midterm elections. Meanwhile, Fed Governor Christopher Waller says additional rate hikes will likely be needed, although they do not have to come at consecutive meetings.
For traders, that leaves a familiar tension: higher energy prices could keep inflation elevated, making it harder for the Fed to finish its tightening cycle. Equities are under pressure, while the dollar’s gains remain relatively modest.
U.S. dollar marginally higher
The dollar is higher against all seven major currencies, but the gains against the euro, yen and pound are small. Its largest advance is against the Australian dollar, followed by the New Zealand dollar.
The early currency levels and changes, expressed from the dollar’s perspective, show:
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EURUSD: 1.1178; USD higher by 0.15%.
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USDJPY: 158.24; USD higher by 0.11%.
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GBPUSD: 1.3191; USD higher by 0.14%.
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USDCHF: 0.8335; USD higher by 0.05%.
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USDCAD: 1.4268; USD higher by 0.10%.
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AUDUSD: 0.6939; USD higher by 0.30%.
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NZDUSD: 0.5584; USD higher by 0.23%.
The three major pairs have traded in the following low-to-high ranges:
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EURUSD: 1.1172 to 1.1212 — 40 pips.
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USDJPY: 157.59 to 158.29 — 70 pips.
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GBPUSD: 1.3185 to 1.3222 — 37 pips.
The small net changes do not mean there has been no movement. The USDJPY, for example, has covered 70 pips while remaining close to yesterday’s closing level. That is why the price’s position relative to the technical levels matters more than the daily percentage change alone.
Oil jumps as Iran risks return to the forefront
Crude oil futures are trading near $92.62, up $4.34, or 4.92%.
InvestingLive’s overnight report, citing Axios, said the Pentagon instructed U.S. Central Command to complete preparations for a possible resumption of major combat operations in Iran. Strikes could come before the midterm elections, although no launch date has been set and Trump has not made a final decision.
The distinction matters: preparations raise the risk of escalation, but they do not confirm that an attack will happen.
For oil traders, the concern is the potential impact on energy infrastructure and regional shipping. My read is that a sustained rise in oil would also complicate the inflation outlook, keeping pressure on bonds and adding another hurdle for stocks.
Treasury yields move higher
U.S. yields are higher across the curve:
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2-year: 4.8101%, up 4.61 basis points.
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5-year: 5.0733%, up 5.23 basis points.
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10-year: 5.3327%, up 5.57 basis points.
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30-year: 5.7053%, up 4.43 basis points.
The 10-year yield is back above 5.33%. Higher borrowing costs remain a headwind for interest-sensitive activity and make the valuation argument more demanding for equities.
Stock futures point to another lower opening
U.S. futures are implying:
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Dow industrial average: down 440 points.
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S&P 500: down 37 points.
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Nasdaq 100: down 245 points.
Yesterday, the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 all closed lower after setting record closing levels on Tuesday. This morning’s futures point to further pressure.
European stocks are also lower:
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Germany’s DAX: down 1.04%.
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France’s CAC 40: down 0.66%.
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UK’s FTSE 100: down 0.24%.
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Spain’s Ibex: down 1.04%.
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Italy’s FTSE MIB: down 1.13%.
The question for equity traders is whether buyers step back in after the retreat from records, or whether higher oil and yields encourage a deeper correction.
Christopher Waller: More hikes, with flexibility on timing
Speaking in Istanbul, Christopher, a Federal Reserve Governor, said additional tightening will likely be needed if the economy develops as expected. However, he said rate increases do not have to occur at consecutive meetings.
His main points were:
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Inflation remains too high, with energy costs and the AI buildout among the persistent pressures.
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The economy appears to be strengthening in the second half of 2026.
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September’s slower job creation did not change his assessment that the labor market remains solid and stable.
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A prolonged period of inflation above target risks affecting inflation expectations.
Read InvestingLive’s coverage of Waller’s comments here.
My takeaway is that flexibility on timing still leaves the door open to further tightening. A pause would give the Fed more time to assess the data; it would not necessarily signal that the hiking cycle is over. Nothing really new. It is all about inflation.
Bitcoin tests a key swing area
Bitcoin is lower after reaching an intraday low of $82,180. That took the price into the lower swing area between $81,517 and $82,558. The price has since recovered toward $82,554, near the upper edge of that area.
This area is a key barometer for buyers and sellers.
A move back above $82,558, followed by the ability to stay above, would give buyers a foothold and reduce the immediate downside pressure. However, a bounce alone would not erase the earlier decline.
Stay within the area, and the battle continues. Break below $81,517 and remain below, and sellers would gain more control.
For beginner traders, this is how a swing area helps define risk. Buyers can lean against support, but they need to reassess if it breaks. Sellers looking for further downside want the price to remain below the upper boundary and eventually break the lower extreme. Let the price action confirm which side is gaining control.
Other commodities
Precious metals are mixed:
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Gold futures: $4,123.55, up $9.62, or 0.23%.
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Silver: $58.747, down $1.144, or 1.91%.
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Copper: $6.6255, down 0.36%.
Gold is modestly higher despite the rise in yields and the dollar, while silver is under more pronounced pressure.
North American calendar
The main scheduled U.S. releases are:
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8:30 a.m. ET — Initial jobless claims: expected at 200,000 versus 197,000 previously.
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8:30 a.m. ET — Continuing claims: expected at 1.708 million versus 1.701 million previously.
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10:00 a.m. ET — August wholesale inventories: expected to rise 0.7%, matching the preliminary reading.
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10:00 a.m. ET — August wholesale sales: the prior monthly increase was 0.8%.
Jobless claims provide another timely check on the labor market following September’s softer payroll growth. A meaningful surprise could influence yields and the dollar, although Middle East headlines remain capable of moving markets independently of the calendar.
For the currencies, the task is to identify the technical break that turns a modest daily move into something more directional. In the Kickstart video, I take a look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD and outline where buyers and sellers can define and limit their risk.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.