With futures near 28,185, the first downside target is just 20 points away. A rebound toward 28,232–28,284 would give sellers a different risk-reward setup.
Nasdaq-100 futures | November 12, 2026 | Overnight session
With Nasdaq-100 futures near 28,185 at my overnight snapshot, I’d wait for a bounce before considering a short. The first target is already close, while the level that would invalidate the idea is 152 points higher. I’m watching three prices where a rebound could give sellers a better entry.
Nvidia was down 7.7% and AMD was up 1.75% in that snapshot. Bitcoin was also softer near $73,600. The weakness in Bitcoin adds to the risk-off tone, while AMD’s gain shows that some chip stocks are holding up through the Nvidia selloff. I covered the initial move in my earlier report on Nvidia’s after-hours decline.
Three levels for a possible Nasdaq short
These are sell-limit levels. They depend on a rebound and may fill individually or in combination. If futures slide straight to the first target before any entry fills, I’d pass on the setup.
- 28,232 | First entry. A 47-point bounce from the snapshot would bring the first order into play.
- 28,254 | Second entry. Just above the developing session VWAP, the average traded price weighted by volume.
- 28,284 | Third entry. Closer to the first band above VWAP and still below the developing value area high, near 28,300.
- 28,337 | Stop. Above both the developing value area high and the second upper VWAP band at the snapshot. If buyers reclaim 28,300 and hold above it, the case for selling the bounce weakens. 28,337 is the planned exit if the short is open.
The session’s VWAP and both value-area boundaries move as trading continues. If the rebound comes later and those references have shifted materially, I’d reassess the setup before using the same orders.
Where I’d look to take profits
- 28,165 | First target. Just above the prior session’s value area low. If a short is open and price reaches this level, I’d consider taking partial profits, cancelling any unfilled sell orders and moving the stop on the remainder to the average price of the entries that actually filled.
- 27,957 | Second target. Above an earlier session’s point of control, the price where the most volume traded.
- 27,837 | Third target. Just ahead of the November 10 point of control and VWAP. That’s the last target in the main plan.
What waiting changes about the trade
At 28,185, a short would have 20 points to the first target against 152 points to the stop, or about 0.13R. If only the first limit at 28,232 fills, that improves to 0.64R. If all three entries fill in equal size, the average entry is approximately 28,256.67, with 80.33 points of initial risk. The three targets are then about 1.14R, 3.73R and 5.22R, respectively, before fees and slippage. Each figure measures the distance to that target against the initial risk. The overall result depends on how much of the position comes off at each level.
I’d keep the size small. CME’s Micro E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures (MNQ) are worth $2 per point. One micro at each entry would put $482 at risk if all three filled and the stop executed at 28,337, before fees and slippage. A stop moved to the average entry can still slip. If you trade a Nasdaq CFD, check its quote and value per point before using this futures map.
The trade-off I’m willing to live with is missing a trade while I wait for a better entry. Chasing a short after a sharp drop can put you underwater on the first bounce. A patient entry can improve the reward relative to the risk, and you can still get filled and stopped out. Some days, the market moves without you, and that’s part of the plan.
For more on managing pending orders and partial exits, see the investingLive guide to using tradeCompass.
Educational only. Trade at your own risk.
This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.