Nvidia delivered another strong beat-and-raise quarter, fueled by accelerating demand for AI infrastructure. By now, most traders know the headline numbers:
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Revenue: $96.22 billion versus $92.17 billion expected, up 106% year over year and 18% from the prior quarter.
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Adjusted EPS: $2.22 versus $2.10 expected.
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Data-center revenue: $89.0 billion versus $85.08 billion expected, up 117% year over year.
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Q3 revenue guidance: $108 billion, plus or minus 2%, comfortably above the $104.19 billion estimate.
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Nvidia projected approximately 70% revenue growth for fiscal 2028, well above analysts’ prior expectations of around 44%.
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Nvidia and AWS plan to deploy an additional 2 million GPUs during 2027 and 2028.
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The Vera Rubin platform has begun shipping and is expected to account for roughly 20% of data-center revenue in the current quarter.
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China data-center revenue was not included in the outlook, leaving room for additional upside if shipments expand.
The main concern—if you can call it that—was profitability. Higher memory and component costs are expected to pressure gross margins to around 74% in Q3, before potentially bottoming between 71% and 72% in Q4.
It boggles my mind that the “concern” surrounding a company growing revenue at this pace is whether its profit margin slips from 74% to 71%–72%. Yes, it is lower—but come on.
The results reinforced the view that AI spending remains strong, continues to accelerate and is broadening beyond the major cloud providers. Nvidia shares are responding accordingly, trading around $222.80 in premarket trading, up 6.27%.
So, what has the earnings-driven surge done to the technical picture?
Looking at the hourly chart—with several moving averages from the daily chart overlaid—the recent correction from the August 17 high near $228 took the stock lower for seven consecutive sessions. The decline reached a low near $207.60 on August 24, just ahead of the rising 100-day moving average.
Holding that line in the sand was technically significant and kept the buyers in play heading into earnings. The stock still fell another 1.59% yesterday, closing at $209.66, but the earnings catalyst has now sent the price sharply higher in premarket trading.
At around $223, however, the stock remains below the recent high at $227.92. The all-time high at $236.54 is another $13 or so above the current price.
Given the strength of the earnings, guidance and longer-term growth outlook, getting above those levels is now the minimum objective for buyers. A move above $227.92 would open the door toward the all-time high at $236.54. Conversely, a failure to extend toward—and ultimately through—those levels would be a disappointment.
What would disappoint buyers and potentially cause traders to question the bullish story?
The closest risk- and bias-defining level is the 100-hour moving average at $218.83—the blue line on the chart. Staying above that moving average keeps the short-term bias firmly in favor of the buyers. A move below it would not necessarily ruin the bullish picture, but it would give buyers some cause for pause.
A more conservative risk level comes at the 200-hour moving average near $212.00. That moving average is also close to a swing area between $213.00 and $214.39. The price should not move back below that cluster if buyers are going to maintain control. A break beneath it would force traders to reevaluate the post-earnings buying thesis.
That is the roadmap for traders and investors anticipating further upside momentum.
The buyers are making a play. The earnings provided the catalyst and certainly appear to justify the move. However, the price action—and the Nvidia story—will continue to evolve. Knowing the upside targets and the downside risk levels gives traders the roadmap needed to stay aware and prepared.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.