The rally reflects the market pricing in a higher chance of sustained logistical disruption rather than confirmed lost barrels, with traders watching Saudi export routes to Asia and Red Sea transit closely for further deterioration. Brent’s extended run in overbought territory suggests positioning has become stretched, raising the risk of a sharp reversal if de-escalation talk gains traction. The tanker reversals and blockade threat point to rising freight and insurance costs alongside any physical supply risk. Continued Kazakh export disruption via the CPC adds a second, less-watched supply thread to the same risk-off theme.
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Middle East conflict spreads from missiles to shipping lanes, and oil is pricing in the risk.
Summary:
- Brent and WTI both rose circa 2% on Tuesday to their highest closes in around five weeks, according to settlement data.
- Two tankers carrying Saudi crude to China and India reversed course in the Red Sea after Houthi threats, per shipping data cited in the report.
- The Houthis announced a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia, according to the report.
- US forces struck targets in Iran overnight, while Tehran hit US sites in Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan, with a tanker also struck in the Strait of Hormuz, per the report.
- Saudi crude exports fell for a third straight month in May to a record low, according to JODI data.
- The Caspian Pipeline Consortium halted Kazakh oil loadings after attacks on tankers at its Black Sea terminal, according to industry sources, with Russia blaming Ukraine.
- Iran reportedly proposed a ten-day ceasefire while the US pushed for a longer truce and partial Hormuz navigation, according to i24news reporting.
Oil prices climbed to a five week high on Tuesday, with Brent and WTI both settling up circa 2 percent, as fears mounted that energy supply disruptions in the Middle East could deepen amid fresh attacks between the United States and Iran and a threatened naval blockade of Saudi Arabia by Yemen’s Houthis.
Brent futures settled around 91 dollars a barrel and West Texas Intermediate around 85 dollars, marking the strongest close for both benchmarks in roughly five weeks. Brent also remained in technically overbought territory for a seventh straight session, the longest such run in about a year. Analysts said the rally reflected the market pricing in a higher probability of continued logistical instability, rather than confirmed lost barrels, particularly if Saudi exports to Asia or transit through the Red Sea face further disruption.
Two oil tankers carrying Saudi crude bound for China and India reversed course in the Red Sea on Tuesday after threats from the Iran aligned Houthis, with shipping data showing both vessels turning back toward the Suez Canal. Sources said Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea port of Yanbu continued to operate normally despite the disruption. The reversals came after the Houthis announced a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia, widening the conflict’s reach and raising the threat to global energy supplies and trade well beyond the Gulf.
Overnight, US forces struck targets in the south and west of Iran, while Tehran hit US sites in Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan, with at least one tanker also struck in the Strait of Hormuz. Separately, crude exports from Saudi Arabia fell for a third consecutive month in May to a record low, according to data from the Joint Organizations Data Initiative.
Elsewhere, the Caspian Pipeline Consortium halted loadings of Kazakh oil after suspending operations following attacks on tankers at its Black Sea terminal, with Russia accusing Ukraine of targeting the vessels. Prices briefly came under pressure during the European morning on reports that Pakistan was pushing to revive negotiations between Iran and the US, though that pressure proved short lived once the Houthis warned shipping firms against loading or discharging at Saudi ports.
Separate reporting suggested Iran had proposed a ten day ceasefire, while the US was said to be demanding a longer truce along with at least partial navigation rights through the Strait of Hormuz, a proposal some in the Trump administration reportedly dismissed as unworkable. Trump was also reported to have said the conflict with Iran was far from over, with further strikes expected in the near term. Overall sentiment in the crude complex remained negative, with markets keeping a close watch on further escalatory moves in the region.
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This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.