FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
Solana was
among the biggest large-cap movers recently, gaining roughly 10–13% around
Friday’s rally. The catalyst was the broader regulatory relief from the SEC’s
tokenization framework and CFTC
rulemaking. The CFTC has effectively signalled that it intends to move
forward with a crypto market framework using its existing authority rather than
waiting for Congress. But Solana also had its own fundamental tailwinds.
One
interesting development is that tokenized-equity participation on Solana
reached a record 850,000 unique holders, while Solana spot ETFs recorded
another week of inflows, extending a 12-week streak.
IDIOSYNCRATIC
CATALYSTS
Looking
ahead, the most important idiosyncratic catalyst is the Solana’s Alpenglow
consensus upgrade which is designed to significantly improve Solana’s finality
and network performance. Current event calendars put the Alpenglow activation
around September 28. Successful implementation could strengthen the argument
that Solana can support increasingly demanding financial applications. The
rollout is occurring in phases and it’s one of the largest protocol upgrades in
Solana’s history.
SYSTEMATIC
CATALYSTS
On the
macro side, the market’s focus
is now on tomorrow’s UN General Assembly, as Trump called a meeting with Gulf
leaders on the sidelines to discuss the next steps in the war with Iran. The
Iranian delegation was also allowed to participate in the Assembly, so there
will likely be a meeting between Trump and Iranian President Pezeshkian.
Keep in mind that
a de-escalation would send oil prices lower, further easing inflation and rate hike
concerns and ultimately support risk sentiment and cryptocurrencies.
Economic data will
also be important given the current market’s pricing. When positioning and
market expectations become stretched, even a modest shift in the data can
trigger a significant reversal. If US data starts surprising to the downside,
expectations for aggressive rate hikes will likely be reduced, giving Solana an additional boost.
SOLANA TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME
On the
daily chart, we can see that Solanabounced on the key support zone around the 97.00 level and eventually
extended the rally into new highs. We now have another major trendline defining
the bullish momentum. If we get a pullback, we can expect the buyers to lean on
the trendline with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into the 149.00
level. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to extend
the pullback into the 97.00 support.
SOLANA TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 4
hour chart, we can see the price broke above the upper bound of the bullish
flag and bullish momentum increase as more buyers piled in to target new highs.
The first target should be around the 120.00 where we have the 127.2% Fibonacci
extension level. If we get pullback before that, we can expect the buyers to step
in around 108.00 swing low with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into
new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking
lower to pile in for a drop into the daily trendline.
SOLANA TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 1
hour chart, we have a minor upward trendline defining the bullish momentum on
this timeframe. If we get a pullback into the trendline, we can expect the buyers
to lean on it with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs,
while the sellers will look for a break to extend the pullback into the 108.00
swing low.
UPCOMING CATALYSTS
Tomorrow, we have Trump meeting with Gulf leaders and
potentially with Iran’s President at the UN General Assembly. On Wednesday, we
get the Flash US PMIs. On Thursday, we have the Trump-Xi meeting.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.