The buyback (full news item is here) is a supportive signal for Nvidia and the wider AI trade, but the chart shows the market has not yet accepted higher prices. Supply is still visible at $232-$234, so the news has produced a spike rather than a breakout so far. A steady bid from repurchases could help buyers defend pullbacks, particularly while the rising line from mid-September holds. The key checkpoints are a daily close above $234-$236 and the pace of execution.
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Nvidia has put a record $150 billion behind its own stock, and the chart now needs to show that buyers can turn a news spike into a close above resistance.
Summary:
- Nvidia raised its buyback authorization by a record $150 billion, lifting the total remaining amount to $235 billion, and expects to use it through fiscal 2028.
- Shares rose nearly 2% on Monday, touched $233.21 and closed at $228.86 after meeting resistance at $232-$234.
- The stock is up more than 20% this year and trades near its lowest earnings multiple since 2015, according to LSEG data cited by Reuters.
- The increase tops Apple’s $110 billion approval in 2024, while overall US buybacks fell about 50% from July through September 23.
- On the daily chart, the rising line from the September 14 low near $209 is intact, and the May high of $236.54 is the key breakout level.
Nvidia has raised its share buyback authorization by a record $150 billion, lifting the total remaining amount to $235 billion, and the stock’s reaction on the daily chart is a test of how much that news is worth. Shares gapped higher on Monday and rose nearly 2%, according to Reuters, but the early strength ran into a familiar ceiling. Nvidia touched $233.21 intraday, inside the $232-$234 zone where the June 2 high, the September 8 high and the September 4 peak of $234.76 all sit, before easing back to close at $228.86.
Monday’s candle is a worry, and I would not pretend otherwise. The stock closed in the lower part of its range after the spike, which suggests sellers were active at resistance. My view is that it is not the complete story. The rising line I have drawn from the September 14 low near $209 remains intact, but its far too ‘steep’ to lean on IMO (don’t get me started on ‘steep’, it’s a moveable concept on a time chart …. want less steep, play with the zoom!). The line drawn from the late August low is going to be a better one to eye IMO.
Buyers have repeatedly stepped in on pullbacks, and the response to the news came from a position of strength rather than weakness. The May 14 high of $236.54 is the level I am watching for a decisive break.
The buyback adds a fundamental argument to that technical picture. The increase surpasses Apple’s $110 billion approval in 2024 and exceeds the market value of about 84% of S&P 500 companies, based on LSEG data cited by Reuters, while overall US buybacks fell about 50% from July through September 23. Nvidia expects to execute the full program through fiscal 2028. Reuters also reported that the stock trades at around 16.5 times forward earnings, its lowest multiple since January 2015, which some analysts read as a sign of slowing profit growth expectations. The company’s filings note that repurchases can be suspended at its discretion, so the authorization is a ceiling rather than a commitment.
For traders, a sustained daily close above $234-$236 would strengthen the breakout case, while a slide below the $224-$225 area, and then through the rising line, would suggest Monday’s high marked exhaustion. Attention also turns to how quickly Nvidia deploys the program and to the next earnings update. A breakout touch is not the same as acceptance above a level, and the coming sessions should show which it is. Technical levels provide reference points, not guarantees, and conditions can change quickly, so trade or invest at your own risk and use risk controls that suit your circumstances.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.