December WTI crude oil is up $2.71 today to $99.84 while brent trades at $112.
The market can’t seem to shake off the idea of further escalation before any chance of peace. Republicans are being hammered in the midterms over gasoline prices and an unpopular war but Iran has also dug in and wants concessions before it makes any kind of agreement.
Trump yesterday said the US is not negotiating with Iran.
“No, I think we’re not negotiating,” he said.
Later in the day, he repeated a line he’s said many times before. “It’ll end very soon. We could leave now, but we want to make sure it lasts for a long time.”
Finally, he said something ominous:
“We’re gonna have something one way or the other that’ll happen fairly soon. Most people seem to think it’s after the election, and we’re going to see what happens,” he added.
Perhaps that’s a hint to Iran making concessions after Republicans are punished at the polls for starting the war? That’s the optimistic take but more likely it means that the US will ramp up attacks afterwards and try to break Iran. Along those lines, a report yesterday said that new plans were being drawn up.
Netanyahu was also urging escalation and regime change. He said he discussed the need to topple Iran’s regime with US President Trump on Sunday. Of course that has to be viewed through the lens of the October 27 elections, where betting odds give him just a 28% chance fo remaining Prime Minister.
On net, the run of headlines lately points to more escalation rather than the short-lived peace hopes from earlier this week. Moreover, the situation between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia is clearly adding upwards pressure to oil. The Houthi strikes have been surprisingly effective and Saudi Arabia’s airports are closed. Three were also reported killed yesterday in an oilfield attack.
WTI daily chart:
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.