Crude oil trimmed some losses yesterday as the market seems to have
realised that Trump can still legally continue military operations
against Iran even if Democrats control Congress.
The US-Iran situation remains mostly unchanged. Trump said that he has to
decide whether to take further action against Tehran, while adding that he
would prefer not to destroy the rest of Iran.
According to Axios, Trump met with his national security team before making
the comments, while CENTCOM is reportedly finalising preparations for
potentially resuming major combat operations. However, no new directive has
been issued.
Meanwhile, the diplomatic efforts continue. Iran reportedly submitted a new
nuclear proposal to the US through Qatar, but a senior Iranian official said
Tehran would only discuss it once Washington meets its seven demands. Fars News
also reported that Iran does not envisage further diplomatic steps until their
conditions are met.
The New York Times reported that Iran is reviewing proposals from mediators
concerning its nuclear programme, with Vice President Vance reportedly emerging
as a key supporter of Qatar-led mediation efforts.
Nevertheless, US military strikes remain an option as Trump could consider
limited strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities rather than broader attacks
on energy infrastructure.
Looking ahead, the focus will remain on US-Iran developments. A
breakthrough would increase the bearish momentum significantly and take oil
prices back to pre-war levels relatively quickly. An escalation, on the other
hand, could trigger another rally on a rising risk premium, although there’s
also a chance that it could be short-lived if Trump launches limited strikes
just to save face before exiting the war.
CRUDE OIL
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME
On the daily chart, we can
see that crude oil(CFD contract) extended the
gains after bouncing from the key 87.00 handle. The broken channel could act as
resistance in case the price retests the bottom trendline. We can expect the
sellers to step in around the broken trendline, with a defined risk above it,
to target a drop below the 87.00 handle, targeting the 80.00 level. The buyers,
on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish
bets into the 110.00 resistance next.
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 4 hour chart, we have
a downward trendline defining the bearish momentum. We haven’t got neither a
rejection nor a clean breakout, so it became useless. If we get another
pullback into the 87.00 handle, we can expect the buyers to step in around that
level, with a defined risk below it, to keep targeting the 110.00 resistance.
The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to increase the
bearish bets into the 80.00 handle next.
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 1 hour chart, we have
a minor support zone around the 89.00 level where the price got rejected from a
few times in the past days. The buyers stepped in around the support, with a
defined risk below it, to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers will want to
see the price breaking lower to position for a drop below the 87.00 level next.
The red lines define the average daily range for today.
UPCOMING CATALYSTS
Todaywe
conclude the week with the US NFP report and the University of Michigan
Consumer sentiment survey, but the focus will remain on US-Iran developments.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.