USDCHF moved sharply higher last week following the FOMC rate decision, with the rally taking the pair above several important longer-term technical levels.
The price first broke above the late-July high near 0.8205. It then extended above the 38.2% retracement of the decline from the January 2025 high to the January 2026 low at 0.82116. That retracement also corresponds closely with a June 2025 high near 0.8214.
Together, those levels create a key support zone between 0.8205 and 0.8212.
The low today reached 0.8209, inside that area, before rebounding modestly. The current price is trading near 0.8218.
That gives buyers some reason for optimism, but they have more work to do.
Buyers and sellers are battling within a narrow range
The immediate technical battle is taking place between:
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Support at 0.8205–0.8212
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Resistance at the 100-hour moving average at 0.8223
If USDCHF can remain above the lower support zone, buyers retain the opportunity to push the pair higher. However, getting back above the 100-hour moving average—and staying above it—is necessary to give buyers greater confidence.
That moving average has played an important role recently.
Before the FOMC decision, USDCHF found support near the rising 100-hour moving average. On Friday, the price corrected toward the same moving average and once again held support into the close.
Today’s move below the 100-hour moving average therefore gave sellers some hope. However, the inability to extend below the 0.8205–0.8212 swing area has limited the downside momentum.
The result is a tightly defined technical range. Buyers and sellers are battling between support below and moving-average resistance above. A break outside that range should help determine the next directional move.
What buyers need to do
The first objective for buyers is to reclaim the 100-hour moving average at 0.8223.
A move above that level—and the ability to stay above it—would shift the short-term bias back in the buyers’ favor. The next target would be today’s high near 0.8238.
Above that, attention would turn toward the highs from Thursday and Friday between 0.8259 and 0.8262.
A break above that area would open the door for additional upside momentum. Remember, USDCHF is already trading above the 38.2% retracement of the much longer decline from the January 2025 high. Holding above that longer-term retracement strengthens the buyers’ argument that the recovery may have further to run.
What sellers need to do
Sellers need to push USDCHF below 0.8205 and keep the price below that level.
A sustained break would invalidate the immediate support structure and shift the focus toward the rising 200-hour moving average and the 38.2% retracement of the advance from the September 3 low. Those levels are converging near 0.8182, creating the next important downside target.
If that support also breaks, the 50% retracement of the same September advance at 0.8157 would become the next target.
Trading lesson: Let the market break the range
When support and resistance are separated by less than 20 pips, traders can easily get caught reacting to every small move inside the range.
The better approach is to identify the boundaries and let the market prove its intentions:
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A sustained move above 0.8223 gives buyers more control.
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A sustained move below 0.8205 gives sellers more control.
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Between those levels, neither side has established a decisive advantage.
This is one of the principles I emphasize in Attacking Currency Trends: define the levels that separate bullish from bearish control, then let the price action determine the bias. The levels provide the roadmap and also allow traders to define and limit risk.
Key technical levels
Resistance
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0.8223: 100-hour moving average
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0.8238: Today’s high
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0.8259–0.8262: Thursday and Friday highs
Support
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0.8212: Longer-term 38.2% retracement
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0.8205: Late-July high and bottom of the swing area
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0.8182: Rising 200-hour moving average and 38.2% retracement
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0.8157: 50% retracement of the advance from the September 3 low
For now, USDCHF remains in a narrow technical battle. Buyers are defending the longer-term breakout area, while sellers are leaning against the 100-hour moving average. The next break—and the ability to stay outside the range—should provide the clearer trading signal.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.