Vance’s comments touch directly on the shipping and freight picture that has been driving Gulf and Asian oil markets for months. His claim that Hormuz traffic has recovered past half of normal levels would, if accurate, suggest meaningfully improved flows out of the Gulf and less upward pressure on freight and crude prices. However, that figure runs well ahead of independent shipping data, including recent US Central Command and tracking estimates, which have put daily transits at a much smaller fraction of pre-war volumes. Until Vance’s (gaslighting) numbers are corroborated by independent trackers, markets are likely to continue pricing off the lower, independently verified traffic estimates rather than the administration’s more optimistic characterization, meaning the elevated freight and supply risk premium in oil is unlikely to ease on this comment alone.
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Earlier:
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Vance says the Iran war will change shape within months, though his Hormuz recovery numbers run well ahead of independent tracking.
Summary:
- US Vice President JD Vance said the Iran conflict will enter “a completely different phase” within months, and could end after the November midterms if Trump chooses not to escalate further
- Vance described the conflict as unfolding in two phases: first destroying Iran’s nuclear and conventional military capacity, then preventing Iran from rebuilding it and maintaining regional stability
- He said the US is currently responding to Iranian attacks on commercial vessels rather than conducting offensive operations
- Vance said shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has recovered to more than half of normal levels
- Independent shipping trackers and recent US Central Command data have put Hormuz traffic well below that level, generally in the range of 10 to 25 percent of pre-war volumes
- Vance said the path forward depends on whether Trump escalates after the midterms or Iran becomes more willing to negotiate
US Vice President JD Vance said the Iran conflict will enter a completely different phase within months, according to a report by the New York Post (may be gated), aligning himself with President Trump’s view that the war could wind down after the November midterm elections.
Vance said shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has recovered to more than half of its normal level, arguing that Iran’s control over the waterway is diminishing. That figure sits well above independent estimates. Shipping trackers and US Central Command data cited in recent weeks have put daily transits at a small fraction of the roughly 130 vessels a day that used the strait before the war began in February, with some assessments as recently as this month putting traffic in the range of 10 to 25 percent of pre-war volumes. The gap between Vance’s characterization and those figures leaves his claim about the pace of recovery unverified.
Vance said the US is not currently conducting offensive operations against Iran, describing current activity as a response to Iranian attacks on commercial shipping. He laid out what he characterized as a two phase approach to the conflict: an initial phase focused on destroying Iran’s nuclear program and degrading its conventional military and regional power projection capabilities, followed by a second phase intended to prevent Iran from rebuilding those capabilities while maintaining stability in the region.
On the question of how the conflict ends, Vance said the outcome would depend on two factors, whether Trump chooses to escalate US action after the midterm elections, and whether Iran becomes more willing to negotiate a settlement. That framing leaves the timeline for any resolution contingent on decisions neither side has yet made, and follows a pattern in which senior administration figures have offered shifting characterizations of the conflict’s duration and its formal status as a war.
The comments come as the broader economic and shipping toll of the conflict continues to be felt across Asian and Gulf oil markets, with elevated freight costs and disrupted supply routes still weighing on trade through the region months after the fighting began.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.