Thursday’s confirmed attack on two vessels near Oman’s Khasab, at the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz, adds a fresh, verified data point to the run of shipping incidents that have punctuated the Iran war since earlier this year, and this kind of event tends to move oil risk premia even before vessel identities or damage extent are known. That sits alongside, but is separate from, the still-unconfirmed claim that Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline has suffered a fresh rupture, a claim now supported by a second round of satellite imagery rather than by any official corroboration.
A confirmed shipping attack landing on the same day raises the odds that traders start pricing in a broader pattern of extended infrastructure risk rather than judging each report in isolation. Any official confirmation of damage to the pipeline itself, rather than to shipping near Hormuz, would likely be the bigger and more durable price driver given the route’s role as a Hormuz workaround.
Earlier:
- Unverified satellite data fuels talk of fresh hit on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline
- Brent oil surging. Houthi attack on Saudi East-West pipeline the likely culprit
A confirmed attack near Hormuz and fresh satellite claims about the Saudi pipeline are compounding oil-market anxiety, even as one of the two remains unverified.
Summary:
- UKMTO reported four unknown projectiles struck two vessels roughly 4 nautical miles west of Khasab, Oman, near the Strait of Hormuz, setting one vessel on fire
- The status of the second vessel was not immediately known, and the master of a separate ship reported witnessing the strikes from about 6 nautical miles away
- The incident adds to a string of confirmed attacks on shipping near the Strait of Hormuz since the Iran war escalated this year
- Related, a second set of images, comparing Sentinel-3 satellite passes from 9 and 10 September show a large plume near the pipeline route
- Still not had the pipeline claim corroborated by Aramco, Saudi authorities or wire services
- Oil markets are weighing one confirmed maritime attack against one still-unverified pipeline claim on the same news day
Oil markets are digesting two separate developments on Thursday, one confirmed and one still unverified, both bearing on the security of Middle East crude supply routes. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations said four unknown projectiles struck two vessels approximately four nautical miles west of Khasab, Oman, near the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz, setting one vessel on fire. UKMTO said the status of the second vessel was not immediately known, and that the master of another ship in the area reported seeing the projectiles hit the two vessels from about six nautical miles to the north. The incident is the latest in a string of confirmed attacks on shipping near the strait since the Iran war escalated earlier this year, and it stands as a verified data point that will likely factor into near-term risk pricing regardless of how the second story develops.
That second story concerns Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, also known as Petroline, which carries crude roughly 1,200 kilometres from the kingdom’s Eastern Province to the Red Sea port of Yanbu and has served as a critical export route while the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted. A second round of imagery has now been posted. The new images compare Sentinel-3 OLCI satellite passes from 9 and 10 September, with the more recent frame appearing to show a large dark plume near the same stretch of pipeline the account earlier flagged. No government agency, Aramco or established wire service has confirmed pipeline damage based on either round of imagery.
Given the pipeline’s role as a Hormuz workaround, any future confirmation would carry outsized significance for oil supply risk, but until then the appropriate posture is to watch for official comment rather than treat the imagery as settled.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.