Rubio pushes Lebanon ceasefire but US says Hezbollah blocked deal on Iran’s orders

US Secretary of State Rubio spoke with Lebanon’s president and Israel’s PM Netanyahu in the past 48 hours to advance a ceasefire, but Washington says Hezbollah blocked progress on Tehran’s orders.

Summary:
Source: Axios

• Rubio spoke with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu within the past 48 hours to advance a new ceasefire initiative, per a US official
• The proposal calls for Hezbollah to halt all attacks on Israel as a first step, with Israel refraining from escalation in Beirut in return, to create space for gradual de-escalation
• President Aoun attempted to advance the proposal but parliament speaker Nabih Berri’s response was described as evasive and disappointing, with Berri placing the burden on Israel to stop firing first despite Hezbollah initiating the current round of fighting, per the US official
• The US official said Hezbollah is following Tehran’s lead and has no interest in Lebanese civilian welfare, and that Iran wants to prolong the Lebanon conflict to claim credit for resolving it
• Washington said it does not expect Israel to absorb ongoing attacks and that the fastest path to protecting civilians on all sides is an immediate Hezbollah ceasefire

The United States has proposed a new ceasefire framework for Lebanon, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio holding calls with both Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu within the past 48 hours to try to advance the initiative, but Washington says the effort has been blocked by Hezbollah acting on instructions from Tehran.

The US proposal is structured as a sequenced first step: Hezbollah ceases all attacks on Israel, and in return Israel refrains from further escalation in Beirut. A US official described this as intended to create space for gradual de-escalation and an eventual cessation of hostilities across the Lebanon front.

President Aoun sought to advance the proposal, but the response from parliament speaker Nabih Berri, who serves as Hezbollah’s principal political interlocutor, was described by the US official as evasive and disappointing. Berri claimed to be able to guarantee Hezbollah’s commitment to a ceasefire but insisted Israel must stop firing first, a position Washington rejected given that Hezbollah initiated the current round of fighting.

The US official was direct in attributing the impasse to Iranian direction, saying Hezbollah is following Tehran’s lead and has no genuine interest in the welfare of the Lebanese people. The official added that Iran is deliberately prolonging the Lebanon conflict in order to position itself to claim credit for eventually resolving it, a framing that maps closely onto the picture of IRGC strategic control laid out in President Pezeshkian’s resignation letter earlier in the session.

Washington’s closing position was unambiguous: Israel will not be expected to absorb ongoing civilian attacks from a designated terrorist organisation, and the fastest route to protecting civilians on both sides of the border is an immediate and unconditional halt to Hezbollah fire.

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The Lebanon thread is a secondary but not trivial risk premium for energy markets, with any escalation in Beirut raising the prospect of a broader regional flare-up at a moment when the Iran-US nuclear framework is already fragile following Pezeshkian’s resignation. The US framing of Hezbollah as acting on Tehran’s instructions and Iran as seeking to prolong the conflict to claim diplomatic credit reinforces the view that the IRGC, not civilian Iranian leadership, is coordinating the region’s active fronts. That reading aligns directly with Pezeshkian’s resignation letter and compounds the uncertainty around whether any counterparty exists in Tehran capable of delivering a comprehensive settlement. For oil, Lebanon alone is not a price mover, but as a signal of Iranian intent and IRGC reach it adds to the risk-off case.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.