US May non-farm payrolls +172K vs +85K expected

• Prior was +115K (revised to +179K)

• Two-month net revision +93K
• March was +185K (revised to +214K)
• Unemployment rate 4.3% vs 4.3% expected
• Prior unemployment rate 4.3%
• Unrounded unemployment 4.296% vs 4.337% prior
• Participation rate 61.8% vs 61.8% prior
• U6 underemployment rate 8.1% vs 8.2% prior
• Average hourly earnings +0.3% m/m vs +0.3% expected
• Average hourly earnings +3.4% y/y vs +3.4% expected
• Average weekly hours 34.3vs 34.3 expected
• Change in private payrolls +120K vs +85K expected
• Change in manufacturing payrolls +7K vs +2K expected
• Government payrolls +52K vs -8K in April

The US labor market entered May firmly in low-hire, low-fire mode. Hiring had cooled to a trickle — the trailing 12-month pace down around +21K — but employers weren’t cutting either, leaving the unemployment rate pinned at 4.3% for months. April set the tone, with +115K nearly doubling the ~62K consensus, led by health care, transportation and warehousing, and retail. March was revised up to +185K while February was marked down to -156K.

The leading data into May was mixed but not alarming. ADP’s private-sector tally came in at +122K with eight of ten sectors adding jobs, the most broad-based hiring in years on their read. Jobless claims drifted higher, with initial claims back up to 225K, the highest since early February, but still consistent with a backdrop of soft hiring rather than rising layoffs.

The stakes sit with the Fed. The funds rate has been held at 3.50-3.75% since last year, with markets pricing roughly 97% odds of another hold at the June 16-17 meeting and inflation still stuck near 3.8%. That leaves the bar high for the labor data to shift the path: it would take a clear stumble — a soft headline or heavy back-month revisions — to revive rate-cut bets.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.