A confirmed stand-down from strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure would remove, for now, one of the more acute supply-side risks weighing on oil markets, particularly given the scale of the reported bombing campaign under discussion. Any de-escalation touching the Hormuz Strait carries outsized significance given the volume of global crude that transits the waterway daily, and traders will likely read the prospect of guaranteed passage as a bullish signal for freight and a bearish one for the geopolitical risk premium embedded in prices. However, Iran’s official denial of the central premise, that it requested a pause, introduces meaningful uncertainty: markets may be reluctant to fully price out risk until both sides confirm the same version of events. Sentiment is likely to stay choppy, with any further US military signalling or Iranian rhetoric capable of reversing the move quickly.
—
In a weekend social media post Trump claims a deal has averted Iran strikes, but Tehran insists no such request was made.
Summary:
- Trump posted on Truth Social saying he had cancelled planned strikes on Iran
- He said Iran and other Middle Eastern countries had asked the US to hold off pending a deal
- The proposed deal would reportedly include full opening of the Hormuz Strait and an end to Iran’s nuclear threat
- Iran’s Mehr news agency denied any such request was made, calling the claim “a new lie”
- Iran’s acting Defence Minister Majid Ibn al-Reza said Tehran treats every threat as real and credible
- US media had reported the US and Israel were planning intense strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, discussed at Friday’s cabinet meeting
Donald Trump says he has called off planned strikes against Iran, citing an agreement in principle on the shape of a broader deal, even as Tehran disputes the central claim behind his announcement.
In a post on Truth Social, the US president said Washington was “locked and loaded and ready to go against the Islamic Republic of Iran, at levels of Military Terror, Strength, and Power not seen since World War II.” Despite this, he said, Iran and other Middle Eastern countries had asked the US to hold off on any attack as the “perimeters” of a deal had been agreed. He said the arrangement would involve the immediate and complete opening of the Hormuz Strait and an end to Iran’s nuclear threat, and that he had agreed to cancel the strikes on that basis, subject to a deal being reached rapidly. Israel, he added, had joined the commitment.
Iran’s semi-official Mehr news agency rejected Trump’s account outright, describing it as nothing but a new lie. The country’s acting Defence Minister, Majid Ibn al-Reza, said Tehran regarded every threat from its adversaries as real and credible, even those forming part of psychological warfare, adding that Iran would neither be caught off guard nor remain passive.
The exchange follows reports in US media that Washington and Israel had been preparing one of the most intense bombing campaigns yet against Iranian energy infrastructure. According to sources cited by CBS News, the BBC’s US news partner, the plan was raised during Trump’s cabinet meeting on Friday. The US government has also urged Americans in the Middle East to remain alert and ready to leave the region should tensions escalate further.
It is not the first time Trump has issued dire warnings toward Iran only to later frame the situation as one where diplomacy is being given room to work. Whether this latest reversal marks genuine progress toward a deal, or another cycle in an already volatile standoff, may depend on how quickly the two sides can reconcile their conflicting accounts of what was actually agreed.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.