The AUDUSD ran into sellers near its 100-day moving average during the Asia-Pacific session, topping out at 0.7046, just short of the 100-day MA at 0.7051. That key technical level attracted willing sellers, reinforcing its importance as resistance and shifting the short-term momentum back to the downside.
The selling pressure pushed the pair back below the 38.2% retracement of the decline from the early May high to the late June low at 0.7022. That break also took the price beneath a swing area defined by highs from June 15 through June 23, giving sellers additional confidence and leading to a stronger downside extension.
The move lower accelerated through the European morning, with the pair falling below the nearly converged 100- and 200-hour moving averages near 0.6991 before finding support at 0.6984. However, the bearish momentum could not be sustained. Buyers stepped back in and lifted the price above both hourly moving averages, turning that area back into an important near-term support zone.
Going forward, those converged hourly moving averages will be the key barometer for the short-term bias. As long as the price remains above them, buyers maintain a slight edge and can target a move back toward the 0.7020 to 0.7027 swing area. A break above that zone would shift the focus back toward the 100-day moving average, while a move back below the hourly moving averages would hand the sellers back the short-term advantage. Traders expect more selling with a shift in the bias more to the downside on a 2nd break below those moving averages today.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.