As market volatility continues across multiple asset classes, Giuseppe Dellamotta at investingLive.com highlighted today’s macroeconomic calendar focusing on June US Job Openings alongside shifting geopolitical headlines. Energy markets are feeling that friction directly, with Justin Low from investingLive.com analyzing WTI crude’s bounce to $81.20 as US-Iran headlines maintain market tension around the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, equity traders are digesting exceptional corporate earnings, with Eamonn Sheridan at investingLive.com breaking down Palantir’s massive 93% revenue surge and raised full-year guidance driven by accelerating demand for sovereign AI infrastructure. Stock is up more than 15% and looks to me like it is eyeing $147 for today (always trade at your own risk only, this is just an opinion) after its earnings report last night.
That earnings strength is spilling over into broader equity indices, where Greg Michalowski from investingLive.com mapped out the key technical levels driving mega-cap tech momentum across leaders like Meta and Nvidia as buyers push the Nasdaq higher. Over in digital assets, operational disruptions are introducing short-term volatility, as Eamonn Sheridan also reported on Telegram’s unexpected removal from the iOS App Store impacting crypto traders and putting pressure on ecosystem tokens like GRAM.
Now let’s dive into the NASDAQ analysis of today at investingLive.com
A +4 bullish score means Nasdaq futures show strong upward momentum, but “don’t chase” warns you not to buy immediately at current high prices and to instead wait for a safer entry on a pullback.
Nasdaq futures analysis today: Bulls regain control above 29,000, but chasing NQ carries risk
Nasdaq futures have recovered above 29,000, forcing a bullish recalibration of the short-term outlook. The main support cluster is 28,945-28,965, while 29,283 is the first important upside target. Bulls currently have the advantage, but the risk-to-reward is more attractive on a controlled retracement than after chasing the market above 29,000.
Nasdaq futures prediction score: +4 / +10
Bias: Bullish while NQ holds the 28,945-28,965 support cluster. The preferred setup is buying a retracement rather than chasing price above 29,000.
Key takeaway: The deeper Nasdaq pullback anticipated over the weekend did not develop. NQ has reclaimed 29,000 and the price structure has improved. Bulls now have the advantage, with 29,283 as the first major upside target, but the route higher could remain choppy.
Key takeaways from today’s Nasdaq futures analysis
- Immediate bias: Bullish while Nasdaq futures hold the 28,945-28,965 support cluster.
- Preferred long area: A retracement into 28,945-28,965, rather than buying after an extended push above 29,000.
- Deeper support:28,890-28,915 could provide a secondary entry area if the first zone is briefly swept.
- Bullish targets:29,283, 29,347 and 29,470.
- Possible resistance short:29,490-29,510, but only after visible rejection.
- Bearish activation: Sustained trade below 28,875 would weaken the intraday structure.
- Higher-timeframe support: Swing traders should continue monitoring 28,800 and 28,700.
What changed in the Nasdaq futures outlook?
Nasdaq futures are trading near 29,057 at the time of this analysis after crossing back above the psychologically important 29,000 level.
That requires a recalibration from my more bearish weekend outlook. I expected Nasdaq futures to retrace further, but the market did not cooperate.
There is no benefit in defending an outdated opinion when price provides new information. Being wrong is unavoidable in trading. The more important skill is recognizing the error quickly, controlling any damage and building a new market map from the structure now visible.
The 30-minute chart shows that buyers recovered from the August 3 decline, pushed Nasdaq futures back above the prior session’s upper value boundary and then established a higher area of trading activity. The subsequent move above 29,000 strengthens the recovery.
This does not mean Nasdaq futures must continue directly higher. It means the evidence has improved enough to give buyers the short-term advantage.
What does the Nasdaq futures score of +4 mean?
The +4 / +10 prediction score represents a moderate bullish advantage. It is not an estimate that Nasdaq futures have a 40% probability of rising, and it does not imply that traders should buy at any available price.
The score reflects several constructive features:
- Price has reclaimed 29,000.
- NQ is trading above the developing session VWAP.
- Current value has shifted higher.
- Buyers recovered from the latest pullback rather than allowing it to develop into a deeper breakdown.
- Several volume-based references are concentrated below the market, creating potential support.
The score is not higher because price has already advanced, resistance remains overhead and developing intraday levels can change during the session. The current setup therefore favors selective bullish participation, not aggressive chasing.
Nasdaq futures level map for August 4
Preferred long area
28,945-28,965
Main VWAP and value-based support cluster.
Optional deeper long area
28,890-28,915
Secondary support if the first zone is swept.
Intraday bearish activation
Below 28,875
Loss of current value would strengthen sellers.
First bullish target
29,283
Initial area for partial profit-taking.
Second bullish target
29,347
Next resistance and risk-reduction area.
Third bullish target
29,470
Higher target ahead of major resistance.
Speculative short zone
29,490-29,510
Requires rejection, not a blind sell order.
Higher-timeframe support
28,800
Important dividing line for swing traders.
Deeper swing support
28,700
Potential support near the August 3 VWAP area.
Why is 28,945-28,965 the preferred Nasdaq long zone?
The primary area under watch for a possible Nasdaq futures long is approximately 28,945-28,965.
Several meaningful market references are concentrated around this relatively narrow zone:
- Developing VWAP near 28,963
- Previous session value area high near 28,964
- Developing point of control near 28,945
- Previous session point of control near 28,916, slightly below the main zone
The importance comes from the concentration of references, not from one isolated line.
What do VWAP, value area and point of control mean?
VWAP, or volume-weighted average price, estimates the average price paid during the session while giving more weight to prices where more volume traded. Traders often use it as a real-time measure of whether buyers or sellers have the stronger intraday position.
The value area is the price range where most of the session’s trading volume occurred. The value area high marks its upper boundary, while the value area low marks its lower boundary.
The point of control is the individual price area where the greatest amount of volume traded during the measured period. It can act as a magnet during balanced conditions and as support or resistance after price moves away from it.
When VWAP, a previous value boundary and the current point of control overlap, the resulting zone can carry more analytical weight than any one reference on its own.
A retracement into 28,945-28,965 could therefore offer better long-side asymmetry than buying after NQ has already advanced above 29,050.
There is no guarantee that the market will return to this area. Waiting for a better entry always creates the possibility of missing the move. That is an acceptable trade-off when the alternative is entering late with a wide stop and limited upside before the first resistance target.
Why traders should be careful about chasing above 29,000
Round numbers such as 29,000 attract attention because they are easy to see and remember. They often become areas of concentrated orders, stop placements and emotional decision-making.
However, trading above a round number is not the same as establishing acceptance above it.
Nasdaq futures could:
- Hold above 29,000 and continue toward 29,283.
- Rotate repeatedly above and below 29,000.
- Break higher briefly before returning to VWAP.
- Reject the breakout and revisit the lower support cluster.
A trader buying near 29,060 has less room to the first target and may need a wider stop than someone entering during a controlled retracement toward 28,965. That difference can materially affect the reward-to-risk profile even when both traders share the same bullish opinion.
This is why entry quality matters. A correct directional view can still produce a poor trade if the entry is too extended.
Could 28,890-28,915 provide a second long entry?
Traders who prefer scaling into a position could consider leaving a second buy around 28,890-28,915.
This deeper zone includes:
- The previous session point of control near 28,916
- The developing value area low near 28,893
The area could become relevant if Nasdaq futures briefly trade through the first support cluster, trigger nearby stops and then recover.
Such a move is sometimes described as a liquidity sweep. Price travels beyond an obvious support area, but sellers fail to build sustained acceptance below it. A quick recovery can indicate that the breakdown did not attract enough follow-through.
The second entry should not be used simply to rescue an oversized or poorly planned first entry. Traders considering a two-entry approach should calculate the combined risk before the first order is filled.
For example, the planned position can be divided between the two zones instead of placing full size at the first level and then adding more risk after price moves lower.
What confirmation could traders look for at support?
The tradeCompass map identifies the area of interest, but traders may apply their own confirmation method.
Possible signs that buyers are defending support include:
- Price trades into the zone and closes back above it.
- A brief break below support is followed by a fast recovery.
- NQ tests the area more than once without continuing lower.
- Price reclaims VWAP after temporarily trading beneath it.
- A bearish candle is followed by stronger bullish continuation.
- The trader’s own lower-timeframe or order-flow setup confirms renewed buying.
Waiting for confirmation may result in a slightly higher entry. The potential benefit is avoiding a trade while price is still falling through support.
What are the bullish Nasdaq futures targets?
If buyers defend support and NQ resumes higher, the bullish partial-profit targets are:
- 29,283
- 29,347
- 29,470
These targets are deliberately placed ahead of visible resistance references near 29,295, 29,362 and 29,494.
This small adjustment matters because markets sometimes reverse shortly before an obvious level. Many traders may be trying to exit at the same visible resistance, so placing a target slightly in front of it can improve the probability of execution.
The first objective near 29,283 appears achievable under the present bullish structure. That does not mean Nasdaq futures must move there in a straight line. NQ may consolidate around 29,000, revisit VWAP or produce another temporary shakeout before attempting the next advance.
After the first target, traders can consider taking a partial profit and reducing the remaining risk. After the second target, protecting the position becomes even more important because price would be approaching the larger resistance area around 29,500.
Could 29,490-29,510 become a speculative short zone?
The 29,490-29,510 area could become a possible speculative short zone if Nasdaq futures rally into it and then show clear rejection.
This is not intended as a blind sell order.
A stronger short setup would require evidence that buyers cannot establish acceptance above 29,500. Possible rejection signals include:
- A push above 29,500 that quickly returns below the level.
- Repeated attempts to advance that fail.
- A bearish reversal after testing the resistance zone.
- Price losing nearby intraday support after the resistance test.
- Strong buying activity that produces little or no upward progress.
Without rejection, shorting this area would mean standing in front of bullish momentum simply because the market reached a predetermined number.
For traders already holding longs, 29,490-29,510 is also a logical place to reduce more exposure or close a runner.
What would turn the intraday Nasdaq outlook bearish?
The bullish intraday map would weaken if NQ loses 28,875 and begins accepting below it.
A move below this level would place price beneath the developing value area low and the previous session point of control. That would suggest that buyers failed to defend the higher-value structure created during the recovery.
The distinction between a brief break and sustained acceptance is important. A quick move below 28,875 followed by an immediate reclaim may be a failed breakdown. Continued trading below it, particularly after an unsuccessful retest from underneath, would provide stronger bearish evidence.
Nasdaq bearish targets below 28,875
If sellers establish control below the bearish threshold, the downside targets are:
- 28,820
- 28,722
- 28,606
The first target sits ahead of support around 28,800-28,808. The second is positioned above the August 3 VWAP area near 28,700, while the third is placed before the August 2 value area low near 28,590.
These targets are placed slightly before the underlying support references to account for the possibility that buyers react early.
Why intraday and swing traders may read the same decline differently
Timeframe is critical when interpreting a breakdown.
A short-term trader could become bearish below 28,875 because that would damage the current intraday structure. A swing trader could still view the lower 28,800 or 28,700 areas as potential support within a broader recovery.
The hierarchy is:
- Above 28,945-28,965: Bulls retain the strongest immediate advantage.
- Between 28,875 and 28,945: The structure is weakening, but the bearish scenario has not fully activated.
- Below 28,875: The intraday map turns bearish.
- Around 28,800: The market tests an important higher-timeframe dividing line.
- Around 28,700: A deeper recovery test becomes possible.
- Sustained trade below 28,700: The bullish recovery suffers more serious technical damage.
This explains why one trader may consider a short below 28,875 while another waits to evaluate a possible swing long near 28,700. They are trading different timeframes, targets and invalidation structures.
How can traders use this tradeCompass map?
This setup uses tradeCompass logic slightly differently from a conventional breakout map. The main bullish idea is not to buy immediately after price crosses an activation level. It is to wait for a retracement into a predetermined support cluster.
That makes patience and entry quality especially important.
Traders can consider the following process:
- Confirm that the quoted levels match the Nasdaq futures contract being monitored.
- Decide whether the primary or secondary support zone fits the intended timeframe.
- Define the invalidation point before entering.
- Calculate position size from the total acceptable loss, including both entries if scaling.
- Wait for price to reach the zone and apply the preferred confirmation method.
- Consider taking partial profits at the published targets.
- Reduce risk after the first target, and especially after the second.
- Retire the directional opportunity when the trade concludes.
As a general tradeCompass discipline, traders should consider taking no more than one completed long and one completed short from this map. Repeatedly attacking the same level after several false starts can turn a manageable idea into an overtrading problem.
How long does this Nasdaq futures analysis remain valid?
This map is most relevant while the market continues trading around the structure described in the article.
The analysis may need to be updated if:
- Nasdaq futures establish sustained acceptance below 28,875.
- Price reaches and completes several bullish targets.
- NQ moves through 29,500 and builds value above it.
- Developing VWAP, value area and point-of-control levels shift materially.
- A major economic or company-specific catalyst causes rapid repricing.
- A newer investingLive Nasdaq futures analysis is published.
Developing levels are recalculated as more trading occurs. They should be treated as evolving areas rather than permanent lines.
Frequently asked questions about today’s Nasdaq futures outlook
Is Nasdaq futures bullish today?
The short-term bias is moderately bullish while NQ holds the 28,945-28,965 support cluster. The +4 / +10 score signals an advantage for buyers, but not an unusually strong or low-risk bullish setup.
Is reclaiming 29,000 enough to confirm a continued rally?
No. Reclaiming 29,000 improves the structure, but buyers still need to defend support and establish sustained acceptance above the round number. A failed breakout could send price back toward VWAP.
What is the best Nasdaq futures support area today?
The preferred support zone is 28,945-28,965. A deeper secondary area sits around 28,890-28,915, while the bearish intraday scenario becomes more relevant below 28,875.
What is the first Nasdaq futures upside target?
The first bullish partial-profit target is 29,283, positioned just before visible resistance near 29,295.
Could Nasdaq futures still turn bearish?
Yes. Sustained trade below 28,875 would damage the current intraday recovery and expose 28,820, 28,722 and 28,606 as possible downside targets.
Practical Nasdaq futures read for traders today
The updated Nasdaq futures outlook is bullish, but selective.
Buyers have done enough to invalidate the expectation for an immediate deeper retracement. NQ has recovered above 29,000, value has moved higher and important intraday references are now concentrated beneath the market.
The preferred approach is to let price return toward 28,945-28,965 rather than chasing after the rebound. If that zone holds, 29,283, 29,347 and 29,470 become the main upside objectives.
If price instead loses 28,875 and fails to recover it, the intraday advantage shifts toward sellers.
The lesson extends beyond this particular Nasdaq setup: a trader does not need to defend yesterday’s market opinion. The job is to respond to today’s evidence, construct conditional scenarios and control risk if the new map also proves wrong.
For more context on support zones, partial-profit targets and the one-trade-per-direction principle, read the investingLive guide to tradeCompass.
This analysis is based on the September 2026 Nasdaq-100 E-mini futures contract. The Nasdaq 100 index, QQQ, CFDs and options may trade at different prices, so futures levels should be treated as market-structure references rather than exact execution levels for every product.
Trade at your own risk. Return to investingLive.com for original views.
This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.