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The USD moved mostly higher in trading today, supported in part by rising Treasury yields. The Australian dollar was the lone currency to gain ground against the greenback, rising 0.18%. The NZD, CHF and GBP were the weakest performers.
Fundamentally, the U.S. data showed steady growth but persistent inflation. July core PCE matched expectations at 0.2% month-over-month and 3.3% year-over-year, while headline inflation was slightly hotter than forecast. Personal income and spending also beat expectations, although real spending was unchanged.
Second-quarter GDP was unrevised at 1.5%, with consumer spending revised higher to 3.4%, but inflation measures were revised upward. Durable goods orders rose a stronger-than-expected 1.1%, though the underlying business-investment components were softer. Overall, the data reinforced the Fed’s challenge of balancing modest growth against stubborn inflation.
The changes of the majors currencies versus the USD shows:
- EUR: -0.19%
- JPY: -0.10%
- GBP: -0.42%
- CHF: -0.47%
- CAD: -0.30%
- AUD: +0.18%
- NZD: -0.55%
In the US debt market, yields moved mostly higher, with the largest increase coming in the five-year sector:
- 2-year yield: 4.211%, +0.7 basis points
- 5-year yield: 4.367%, +1.8 basis points
- 10-year yield: 4.649%, +1.0 basis point
- 30-year yield: 5.170%, -0.4 basis points
The Treasury sold $70 billion of five-year notes at a high yield of 4.393%, just above the 4.391% when-issued level for a modest 0.2-basis-point tail. Despite the small tail, the auction was above average overall.
Domestic demand was especially strong, with direct bidders taking 28.4% versus the 21.2% average. Indirect bidders—including international buyers—took a below-average 61.5%, while dealers were left with only 10.05%, below the 13.4% average. The auction received a grade of B.
Crude oil futures settled at $82.23, down $0.13, or 0.16%. The modest change masked a volatile session in which the price traded as high as $83.31 and as low as $79.62.
Technically, crude remains between resistance from the 200- and 100-hour moving averages at $84.05 and $84.38, respectively, and support from a rising trendline near $79.32. Sellers remain more in control below the moving averages, but a break of either technical extreme should help determine the next directional move.
Middle East developments remain the primary fundamental driver. Reports of progress between Iran and Oman toward restoring more commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz have removed some of the geopolitical risk premium. However, there is still no comprehensive US-Iran peace agreement, leaving crude vulnerable to the next diplomatic or security headline.
Gold moved sharply lower as the stronger dollar and mostly higher Treasury yields weighed on the precious metal. Gold fell $67.01, or 1.44%, to $4,590.76. The decline comes after an extended run from around $4,000 on July 16 to approximately $4,697 yesterday. Some profit-taking after that advance also contributed to today’s rotation lower.
Bitcoin was also lower, falling 0.18% to $78,392.
US stocks closed modestly lower, although the Nasdaq 100 managed to buck the broader trend and finish in positive territory:
- Dow industrial average: -113.01 points, or -0.21%, at 53,469.36
- S&P 500: -1.56 points, or -0.02%, at 7,675.71
- Nasdaq Composite: -21.10 points, or about -0.08%, at 26,130.20
- Russell 2000: -4.12 points, or -0.14%, at 3,005.90
- Nasdaq 100: +15.29 points, or +0.05%, at 29,224.52
Overall, it was a modest risk-off session: the dollar strengthened against most major currencies, gold moved sharply lower, crude finished little changed after a volatile day, and the broader US equity indices edged lower. The Nasdaq 100 was the exception, squeezing out a small gain.
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In honor of Dolly Parton, who died yesterday at the age of 80, I want to thank her for all she gave to the world—not only through her music, but through her generosity, kindness and the example she set for so many. I especially admired how Dolly remained true to herself and to the faith that guided her throughout her life.
Melissa Etheridge shared a wonderful story last night about performing her song “Bring Me Some Water” with Dolly. Before they sang, Dolly quietly approached her with a small request. The original lyric repeatedly referred to the “sweet devil,” but Dolly said she could hear her mother’s voice telling her not to sing it that way. She asked to change the line to:
“Tonight the old devil, the old devil’s got my soul.”
Melissa told her, “Dolly, you sing whatever you want.”
It is a small anecdote, but it says so much about who Dolly was. She understood the sinfulness and struggles shared by all of us—but by God, she was not going to call the devil “sweet” or give him any praise.
Dolly wanted to be remembered for how she lived and for the difference she made—not for the fame, fortune, power or politics.
She certainly made that difference.
Rest in peace, Dolly, and thank you for the music, the laughter, the generosity and the faithful example of a life well lived.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.