Australia is a major exporter of hard commodities, including gold and copper. When those commodity prices fall, the value of Australia’s exports can decline, reducing the flow of foreign money into the Australian economy. That can weigh on the Australian dollar and push the AUDUSD lower.
Copper also tends to act as a barometer for global growth, particularly demand from China—Australia’s largest trading partner. If copper is tumbling, traders may see it as a warning that global and Chinese demand is weakening. That normally works against the growth-sensitive Australian dollar.
Gold is a little more complicated because it can fall when the US dollar and US yields rise. A stronger US dollar can pressure gold and copper while simultaneously pushing the AUDUSD lower. In that situation, all three markets may be reacting to the same underlying forces: a stronger dollar, higher US yields and reduced appetite for risk.
The relationships are not perfect day to day, but when gold, copper and the AUDUSD are all moving lower together, the markets are generally sending a consistent message: commodity demand is weakening, global growth concerns are rising, or the US dollar is gaining strength—perhaps a combination of all three.
Gold, copper and the AUDUSD are all moving sharply lower today (gold -1.85%, Copper futures -5.40% and AUDUSD -0.80%). Although each market has its own technical story, the common theme is that key support levels have been broken. When several related markets begin confirming the same directional message, traders tend to pay closer attention.
Gold breaks through a key technical floor
Spot gold has moved below an important cluster of support near $4,355.77. That area included the rising trend line, the 100-day moving average and the 200-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart. When several technical tools converge near the same price, that level becomes more important because traders from different time horizons are all watching it.
The break below that cluster gave sellers more confidence and opened the door toward the 50% midpoint and swing area near $4,315–$4,320. That is the next important downside target. If buyers cannot hold the line there, the focus would shift toward $4,282, followed by the 61.8% retracement near $4,230.
For buyers, getting back above $4,355.77 is now the minimum requirement if they are going to take back more control. Until then, the sellers remain in control and the broken support becomes resistance. That is a key lesson for traders: once support is broken, it often becomes a risk-defining ceiling on a rebound.
Copper tumbles after reaching new highs
Copper futures in the US reached another new high just yesterday, but the momentum has reversed sharply today, with the price falling more than 5%. That is a dramatic change in tone and shows how quickly a crowded bullish move can unwind when buyers stop supporting the price.
The decline took copper below both its 100-hour moving average at $6.7404 and its 200-hour moving average at $6.6856. Those breaks helped accelerate the selling and have pushed the price into an important swing area near $6.516. That level has attracted buyers and sellers on several occasions going back to August, making it an important barometer for the next move.
If the $6.516 area holds, copper could see a corrective rebound. However, buyers would still need to reclaim the broken 200-hour and 100-hour moving averages to repair the technical damage. Without that, any rebound would be viewed as corrective.
Conversely, a sustained break below $6.516 would give sellers another victory and increase the downside potential toward the rising 100-day moving average near $6.382. The speed of the decline is important, but traders should remain focused on the levels. Fast markets can become oversold, but oversold does not automatically mean the low is in.
AUDUSD follows commodities lower
The AUDUSD reached its highest level since May during yesterday’s trading, testing the upper swing area between 0.7221 and 0.7228. Buyers had their shot at extending the move, but they could not keep the momentum going.
Today, sellers pushed the price below the rising 100-hour moving average, which kickstarted a sharper move to the downside. The pair then broke below the 200-hour moving average near 0.71936 and through the lower part of the nearby swing area. Those breaks shifted the short-term bias more firmly in favor of the sellers.
The price is now testing a rising trend line near 0.7154. That becomes the next key risk-defining level. If the trend line holds, buyers could attempt a rebound, but they would need to reclaim the broken moving averages to regain control.
A break below 0.7154 would add to the bearish technical picture and have traders looking toward the swing area near 0.7139. Below that, the 38.2% retracement at 0.71168 would become the next important target.
The weakness in copper and gold is also a headwind for the Australian dollar. Australia is a major commodity-exporting economy, and the AUD is often treated as a commodity currency. As a result, a sharp decline in commodity prices can weigh on the currency by weakening the outlook for export revenues and broader economic growth. That relationship is not perfect on every trading day, but today the technical pictures in copper and the AUDUSD are moving in the same bearish direction.
In the video, I take a closer look at the charts for gold, copper and the AUDUSD, explain the technical breaks in greater detail and outline the levels that buyers and sellers will need to reclaim—or break—to take the next measure of control.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.