Bitcoin moved lower yesterday, breaking below its 100-hour moving average and approaching the bottom of the swing area at $81,183. The low reached $81,388, falling short of that key downside target before buyers stepped back in.
Sellers had their shot. They missed.
The rebound subsequently carried the price above the 100-hour moving average at $82,997 and the 200-hour moving average at $83,545. However, buyers could not sustain the upside momentum. The price has since slipped back between those two technical levels.
Moving averages become the barometers
With bitcoin sandwiched between the hourly moving averages, traders have clear levels to define risk and judge who is taking control:
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Above the 200-hour MA at $83,545: The bias becomes more bullish. Buyers would then look toward resistance near $84,236, corresponding with Monday’s high and today’s high area. Getting above—and staying above—that level would give the rebound more credibility.
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Below the 100-hour MA at $82,997: The bias shifts back toward the sellers. The downside focus returns to yesterday’s low at $81,388 and the swing-area floor at $81,183. Below that, the September 19 low at $80,106 becomes the next key target.
For beginner traders, the distinction is between crossing a moving average and holding beyond it. Today’s rebound crossed both averages, but the failure to stay above the 200-hour MA shows that buyers still have work to do.
The broader range still needs a shove
Bitcoin has been trading up and down within a broader range since September 18. The key boundaries remain $80,106 on the downside and $87,374 on the upside.
A sustained break beyond either extreme would signal that the market is finally resolving that consolidation. Until then, the 100- and 200-hour moving averages act as the nearer-term barometers within the range.
The sellers failed to reach their downside target. The buyers have responded, but have yet to establish control.
Be patient. Listen to the price action and the clues from the technical tools. Then wait for the next shove.
Trading lesson: A failed move creates an opportunity, but confirmation still matters
When sellers push toward support but cannot break through, traders should pay attention. That failure can trigger a rebound as sellers exit and buyers step in. However, a bounce alone does not mean buyers are in control.
That is where the moving averages help:
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Stay above the 200-hour MA at $83,545: Buyers have a stronger case for further upside.
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Move back below the 100-hour MA at $82,997: The rebound loses credibility, and sellers regain the advantage.
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Remain between the averages: The market is still deciding. Be patient and wait for the next shove.
The lesson is to use technical levels to define your risk, judge the bias, and recognize when your trade idea is no longer working. You do not need to predict every move. You need to know what the price must do to support your view—and what would tell you that you are wrong.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.