Articles

The news broke earlier that Tesla is replacing Elon Musk as CEO:

• Tesla board begins quiet search for possible Musk successor – more on this

The data release from France earlier gives an indication to the urgency of this.

While new
car registrations in France fell 5.64% in April from a year earlier the figure for Tesla was an order of magnitude worse:

Tesla
sales fell 59.45%

Year to date figures paint a similar picture:

• French market shrunk by 7.28%
• Tesla’s sales have declined by 43.98%

The picture of Musk’s Nazi salute flashed to screens globally and have done damage to Tesla’s brand, along with other Musk missteps.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth issued a stern warning to Iran over its support for Yemen’s Houthi rebels, who have been targeting Red Sea shipping in support of Palestinians.

• On social media, Hegseth wrote: “You will pay the CONSEQUENCE at the time and place of our choosing.”

• The warning comes just days before U.S. and Iranian negotiators are set to resume nuclear talks in Rome on Saturday.

• Hegseth also reposted a message from former President Trump, reinforcing that Iran would be held accountable for Houthi attacks.

• Iran maintains that the Houthis act independently, denying direct control.

• The U.S. has already conducted over 1,000 airstrikes against Houthi targets since March.

• To bolster regional military presence, the Pentagon has:

  • Deployed six B-2 bombers to Diego Garcia, strategically located for Middle East operations.

  • Stationed two U.S. aircraft carriers in the region.

  • Shifted air defense systems from Asia to the Middle East.

Oil traders will be watching for escalation in the Middle East. It may be sooner than we think?

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Australian terms of trade data for Q1 2025

AUD barely changed.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

China is out for a 5-day holiday, beginning today, Thursday, May 1, 2025.

Markets are closed.

There will be no PBOC CNY reference rate setting for the trading sessions ahead.

Chinese markets reopen on Tuesday, May 6.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan Jibun Bank PMI Manufacturing April 2025 Final

• prior 48.4, preliminary 48.5

more to come

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

South Korea April 2025 exports +3.7% vs. expected -2.0% and prior 3.0%

• imports -2.7% vsl expected -7.0%, prior +2.3%

The exports surprise may have been pipeline stuffing ahead of tariffs (Trump paused tariffs only a few days after the announcement disaster). Just a guess.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Via BNP Paribas analysts, looking for a stronger euro still:

• “If European investors agree with our view that there could be a rotation out of U.S. assets with the euro a key beneficiary, hedge ratios could rise or dollar asset allocations could be reduced.”
• could drive a higher EUR/USD
• the sensitivity of the euro to rotation out of U.S. equities into Europe could be higher than it has been in the past due to eurozone investors’ larger stocks of U.S. equity holdings now

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

UK business confidence improved to its highest level since September 2023, according to the latest Institute of Directors (IoD) syrvey

• The IoD’s confidence index rose from -58 in March to -51 in April.

• Hiring expectations turned positive for the first time since September, while investment intentions also picked up.

• Chief economist Anna Leach said concerns remain over US trade policy uncertainty and cost pressures from the prior UK budget.

–

The survey was conducted among 648 UK business leaders between April 11–29, after the tariff pause was announced.

• The results contrast with earlier April surveys showing weakening sentiment among businesses and consumers.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Australia S&P Global PMI Manufacturing April 2025, final 51.7

• prior 52.1
• the flash was 51.7 also

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The U.S. Senate narrowly rejects bipartisan measure to block Trump tariffs.

This was a symbolic slap-on-the-wrist thng. The House would not have passed the bill.

So, interesting, but not market moving.

***

Earlier we had an admission of no trade talks with China at all yet from one of Trump’s minions:

• United States trade representative admits there are no official talks with China on trade

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

United States trade representative Jamieson Greer admits there are no official talks with China on trade.

We all know this, but Trump keeps making misleading announcements on China talks.

Earlier:

• US Trade Rep Greer says ‘initial’ trade deals are still weeks away

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

United States trade representative Jamieson Greer:

• initial trade deals to be announced in weeks, not months
• says he is meeting with Japan, Saudi Arabia, and Guyana on Thursday
• not close on India trade deal, having calls with India’s trade imnister

No further details. Of course.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.