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U.S. Treasury announces agreement to establish United States-Ukraine reconstruction investment fund

• United States and Ukraine signed an agreement on Wednesday to establish United States-Ukraine reconstruction investment fund

• Treasury Department and U.S. International Development Finance Corporation will work together with Ukraine to finalize program governance and advance this important partnership

• Agreement signals clearly to Russia that Trump administration is committed to a peace process centered on a free, sovereign, and prosperous Ukraine over long term

This news broke a few minutes ago:

• US & Ukraine have signed the closely watched minerals deal – Bloomberg cite unnamed source

Official Treasury announcement now.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump speaking:

• After a certain amount of time there will be a tariff wall for pharmaceutical companies
• interest rates should go down
• he should reduce interest rates
• I understand interest rates better than him

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

US & Ukraine have signed the closely watched minerals deal – Bloomberg cite a person familiar with the matter.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

• US Q1 advance GDP -0.3% vs +0.3% expected
• ADP April US employment +62K vs +115K expected
• US March PCE core +2.6% y/y vs +2.6% expected
• Canada GDP for February -0.2% versus 0.0% estimate
• EIA weekly crude oil inventories -2696K vs +429K expected
• Trump: Carney called yesterday and said ‘let’s make a deal’
• Meta EPS $6.43 versus $5.21 estimate. Revenues $42.31B versus $41.36B estimate
• Microsoft earnings beat expectations
• BOC Minutes: Governing council was split over whether to cut or hold rates
• ECB’s Makhlouf; Price risks less clear in he medium term.
• Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q2 is 2.4%
• USTR Jamieson: We are ‘some weeks out’ on trade deals
• Saudi officials have told allies they can sustain a prolonged period of low prices
• US-Ukraine minerals deal hits a last-minute hurdle
• US pending home sales for March 6.1% vs 1.0% estimate
• Trump blames Biden, says to be patient

Markets:

• Gold down $28 to $3287
• US 10-year yields down 1.2 bps to 4.16%
• WTI crude oil down $2..26 to $58.17 — lowest close since 2021
• S&P 500 up 0.1%

The rates market shifted dovishly after weaker GDP and ADP but the dollar rose anyway.

It was a busy news day and the US dollar was strong against European currencies but sagged during the day against the commodity currencies. Equities also made a huge comeback from -2% to flat. That’s the kind of move you would expect on positive trade news but there wasn’t much, aside from a Chinese report saying that US officials had called to talk, and most of the moves came before that report.

Month end is an obvious culprit and a convincing one. Some might point to higher inflation in the GDP report as a catalyst but the PCE data showed a decelerating trend in the quarter with core PCE at +0.337%
in January, +0.498% in February, and +0.028% in March. In addition, oil prices just wrapped up a catastrophic month, which is deflationary pressure. Still, lower inflation is hardly a USD catalyst, unless your main worry is that the Fed is so far behind the curve that a brutal recession looms.

The loonie got a lift from Trump’s positive comments about Carney and the planned visit with the newly-elected Canadian PM.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Bloomberg with the news snippet

• EU to present new trade proposals to US negotiators next week

Bloomberg is gated, but the gist of it is that the European Union is set to unveil fresh trade proposals to U.S. negotiators next week. Although the specifics are still undisclosed, the renewed talks come at a time of heightened global trade tensions, with both sides aiming to resolve disputes over tariffs and regulatory issues. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson recently noted that any final deal is still “some weeks away,” pointing to continued negotiations ahead.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The WSJ reports comments from Senator Lindsay Graham:

• Says he has 60 co-sponsors of bill to put secondary sanctions on Russian oil
• Predicts that number will rise to at least 67
• “It’s clear to me—and I think it’s becoming clear to President Trump—that the Russians are playing games,”
• The bill would put 500% sanctions on buyers of Russian oil, gas, uranium or other products
• Thune has made no promises to bring the bill to a vote

At 67 it would be veto-proof, meaning that Trump couldn’t stop it.

That said, this looks like posturing and leverage in an attempt to get Russia to negotiate peace. If this were to happen, it would materially change the balance of the global oil market and spike prices.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

It was a wild month for stock as they were battered in the first week of the month after ‘Liberation Day’ and fell to the lows on April 7. From there it was a choppy path back, culminating in a seven-day rally.

How much optimism about a trade deal is built in? We will have to wait and see.

On the month:

• S&P 500 -0.8%
• Nasdaq +0.8%
• DJIA -3.2%
• Russell 2000 -2.4%

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Meta announced better-than-expected earnings and revenues:

• EPS $6.43 versus $5.21 estimate.
• Revenues $42.31B versus $41.36B estimate
• Advertising revenue $41.39 billion versus $40.55 billion
• Guide to two revenues $42.5 billion – $45.5 billion versus $44.41 billion estimate
• Lower FY total expenses forecast to $113 billion – $118 billion from $114 billion – $119 billion.

Shares of Meta are trading up $27 or 4.99% at $577.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Microsoft (MSFT) Q3 2025 Earnings (USD):

  • Adjusted EPS: $3.46 (BEAT; expected $3.22)

  • Revenue: $70.1 billion (BEAT; expected $68.41 billion)

• Segment breakdown:

  • Cloud revenue: $42.4 billion (no estimate provided)

  • Productivity revenue: $29.9 billion (no estimate provided)

  • Intelligent Cloud revenue: $26.8 billion (BEAT; expected $25.99 billion)

Shares of Microsoft are currently trading at $416.40 up $21.40 or 5.4% in after-hours trading

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

What could’ve been a horrible month for major indices is ending up mixed.

For the trading month, the:

• Dow industrial average still fell -3.18%

However, the S&P only declined by -0.77%, while the NASDAQ index rose by 0.85%.

For the trading day, the major indices staged a rally into the close. Both the Dow and the S&P closed higher but the NASDAQ index had a modest decline

The final numbers are showing:

• Dow industrial average rose 141.74 points or 0.35% at 40669.36. The intraday low took the index down -782 points before reversing.
• S&P index closed higher by 8.19 points or 0.15% at 5569.02. The intraday low was down -127.59 points.
• NASDAQ index fell by -14.98 points or -0.09% at 17446.34 . The intraday low was down -501.79 points.

Microsoft and Meta earnings after the close

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) is scheduled to report its Q1 2025 earnings after the market closes today, Wednesday, April 30.​

Earnings Expectations

• Earnings Per Share (EPS): Analysts anticipate an EPS of $5.21, representing an 11% increase from $4.71 in Q1 2024.

• Revenue: Projected at $41.36 billion, marking a 13% year-over-year growth from $36.45 billion

Key Focus Areas

• Advertising Revenue: Advertising constitutes approximately 97% of Meta’s total revenue. Analysts are closely monitoring the impact of recent U.S. tariffs, especially given that over 10% of Meta’s ad revenue is derived from China-based advertisers.

• AI Investments: Meta is investing heavily in artificial intelligence, with capital expenditures projected between $60 billion and $65 billion for 2025. The company recently introduced the Llama 4 series of AI models and launched the Meta AI app, aiming to enhance user engagement across its platforms. ​

• Reality Labs: The division responsible for Meta’s metaverse initiatives, Reality Labs, has accumulated approximately $50 billion in losses since 2020. Investors are keen to see if Meta will implement cost-cutting measures or provide updates on the division’s future direction. ​

Stock Performance

• Year-to-Date: META shares have declined by approximately 7.44%.

• From February 2025 all time High at $740.91: The stock has dropped about 35.24% from its peak to the low for the year on April 21

• Recent Rebound: There has been a modest recovery of around 12.90% from the recent lows.

• Moving Averages: The stock is currently trading below its 200-day moving average at $578.68 and its 50-day moving average at $587.95.​

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.