Articles

• Bank of Japan leaves policy unchanged, as widely expected

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• Tesla sales fell nearly 60% in April in France
• Tesla board begins quiet search for possible Musk successor – more on this
• Tesla has opened a search for a CEO to succeed Elon Musk

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• Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth threatens Iran: “You will pay the CONSEQUENCE”
• Australian March exports +7.6% m/m (prior -4.2%) & Imports -2.2% (prior +1.8%)
• Australian Export Q1 price index +2.1% q/q (prior +3.6%) & import +3.3% q/q (prior +0.2%)
• Reminder – Chinese markets are closed for holidays, will reopen on Tuesday next week
• Japan Jibun Bank PMI Manufacturing April 2025 Final 48.7 (prior 48.4, preliminary 48.5)
• “China Is Right Behind Us”: Nvidia CEO Warns AI chip race is neck and neck
• South Korean exports rose in April vs. fall expected
• BNP Paribas on another likely catalyst for a higher EUR/USD
• April UK business confidence improved to its highest level since September 2023
• Australia S&P Global PMI Manufacturing April 2025, final 51.7 (prior 52.1)
• U.S. Senate narrowly rejects bipartisan measure to block Trump tariffs
• Ford has abandoned its project to develop Tesla-like electronic brain
• United States trade representative admits there are no official talks with China on trade
• US Trade Rep Greer says ‘initial’ trade deals are still weeks away
• US equity index have gapped higher upon Globex reopening for evening trade
• US Treasury announces agreement to establish US-Ukraine reconstruction investment fund
• Trump repeats himself, says Fed should cut interest rates
• US & Ukraine have signed the closely watched minerals deal – Bloomberg cite unnamed source
• Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: US GDP dips into negative territory
• The European Union will present new trade proposals to us negotiators next week
• Trade ideas thread – Thursday, 1 May, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas

The
Bank of Japan kept its short-term interest rate at 0.5%, a widely
exp4ected on hold decision. The BoJ cited growing headwinds from
higher US tariffs. The Bank cut its 2025 and 2026 economic growth
forecasts in its quarterly outlook report. This was a not unexpected
move. A cautious BoJ today.

USD/JPY has risen towards 143.50 with the net dovish statement
and report.

Dialling
back the clock a little to before that focal point for the session.

In
late US time United
States trade representative Greer
admitted
that
there are no official talks with China on trade, He
said also that ‘initial’ trade deals with some other countries
are still weeks away.

Australia
published March trade data, showing a widening surplus on a surge in
exports, up 7.6% m/m on gold (26% rise in non-monetary gold
shipments) and other commodity shipments. Iron ore exports recovered
from weather disruptions.

Exports
to the US jumped. Australia runs a trade deficit with the US but in
March recorded a surplus ahead of tariffs.

Imports
dropped by 2.2% m/m, capital goods showing a notable drop.

Also
from Australia today were export and import price indexes. Consumer
goods import prices rose, which may impact inflation ahead if such
rises continue.

Of
note for those with an interest in equities, the Wall Street Journal
reported that Tesla’s board has begun discussions with search firms
to explore potential successors to CEO Elon Musk. In the reports the
Journal noted that Some directors, including Tesla co-founder JB
Straubel, have been meeting with major investors to reassure them the
company is in good hands. This will be in reference to the damage
Musk has inflicted on the brand through his political and ideological
activities. Data from France released today gave some insight into
this. While new
car registrations in France fell 5.64% in April from a year earlier
the figure for Tesla was an order of magnitude worse, Tesla sales
fell 59.45%.

US
equity indexes rose in ‘overnight’ Globex trade, adding to their
solid bounce during Wednesday RTH trade.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

NOTE: MY BAD. i HAD THIS WRITTEN BUT DIDN’T REALISE I HAD FORGOTTEN TO PUBLISH THIS EARLIER. APOLOGIES.

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Australia Trade Balance for March 2025: AUD6900mn surplus

• expected +3200mn, prior +2968mn

Exports +7.6% m/m

• prior -3.6%

Imports -2.2% m/m

• prior +1.6%

Earlier:

• Australian Export Q1 price index +2.1% q/q (prior +3.6%) & import +3.3% q/q (prior +0.2%)

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The news broke earlier that Tesla is replacing Elon Musk as CEO:

• Tesla board begins quiet search for possible Musk successor – more on this

The data release from France earlier gives an indication to the urgency of this.

While new
car registrations in France fell 5.64% in April from a year earlier the figure for Tesla was an order of magnitude worse:

Tesla
sales fell 59.45%

Year to date figures paint a similar picture:

• French market shrunk by 7.28%
• Tesla’s sales have declined by 43.98%

The picture of Musk’s Nazi salute flashed to screens globally and have done damage to Tesla’s brand, along with other Musk missteps.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth issued a stern warning to Iran over its support for Yemen’s Houthi rebels, who have been targeting Red Sea shipping in support of Palestinians.

• On social media, Hegseth wrote: “You will pay the CONSEQUENCE at the time and place of our choosing.”

• The warning comes just days before U.S. and Iranian negotiators are set to resume nuclear talks in Rome on Saturday.

• Hegseth also reposted a message from former President Trump, reinforcing that Iran would be held accountable for Houthi attacks.

• Iran maintains that the Houthis act independently, denying direct control.

• The U.S. has already conducted over 1,000 airstrikes against Houthi targets since March.

• To bolster regional military presence, the Pentagon has:

  • Deployed six B-2 bombers to Diego Garcia, strategically located for Middle East operations.

  • Stationed two U.S. aircraft carriers in the region.

  • Shifted air defense systems from Asia to the Middle East.

Oil traders will be watching for escalation in the Middle East. It may be sooner than we think?

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Australian terms of trade data for Q1 2025

AUD barely changed.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

China is out for a 5-day holiday, beginning today, Thursday, May 1, 2025.

Markets are closed.

There will be no PBOC CNY reference rate setting for the trading sessions ahead.

Chinese markets reopen on Tuesday, May 6.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan Jibun Bank PMI Manufacturing April 2025 Final

• prior 48.4, preliminary 48.5

more to come

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

South Korea April 2025 exports +3.7% vs. expected -2.0% and prior 3.0%

• imports -2.7% vsl expected -7.0%, prior +2.3%

The exports surprise may have been pipeline stuffing ahead of tariffs (Trump paused tariffs only a few days after the announcement disaster). Just a guess.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Via BNP Paribas analysts, looking for a stronger euro still:

• “If European investors agree with our view that there could be a rotation out of U.S. assets with the euro a key beneficiary, hedge ratios could rise or dollar asset allocations could be reduced.”
• could drive a higher EUR/USD
• the sensitivity of the euro to rotation out of U.S. equities into Europe could be higher than it has been in the past due to eurozone investors’ larger stocks of U.S. equity holdings now

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

UK business confidence improved to its highest level since September 2023, according to the latest Institute of Directors (IoD) syrvey

• The IoD’s confidence index rose from -58 in March to -51 in April.

• Hiring expectations turned positive for the first time since September, while investment intentions also picked up.

• Chief economist Anna Leach said concerns remain over US trade policy uncertainty and cost pressures from the prior UK budget.

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The survey was conducted among 648 UK business leaders between April 11–29, after the tariff pause was announced.

• The results contrast with earlier April surveys showing weakening sentiment among businesses and consumers.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Australia S&P Global PMI Manufacturing April 2025, final 51.7

• prior 52.1
• the flash was 51.7 also

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The U.S. Senate narrowly rejects bipartisan measure to block Trump tariffs.

This was a symbolic slap-on-the-wrist thng. The House would not have passed the bill.

So, interesting, but not market moving.

***

Earlier we had an admission of no trade talks with China at all yet from one of Trump’s minions:

• United States trade representative admits there are no official talks with China on trade

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.